SmokeEater Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Winds are really roaring here, getting a lot of trees down throughout SJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maczor Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Light rain with some flakes starting to mix in, Willow Street, PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Storm cancel? DELAWARE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDIA1230 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH SNOW. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO4 INCHES. BREEZY WITH LOWS AROUND 30. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. DELAWARE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDIA1252 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013.TONIGHT...SNOW. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. VERYWINDY WITH LOWS AROUND 30. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UPTO 45 MPH...DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPHAFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Now seems like a good time for this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 So far, it seems like the heavier bands that are rotating back our way (I am just south of you right on the Cherry Hill/Mt. Laurel, NJ border) seem to be falling apart as they hit the 40N line +/-. Is there any impetus to get those bands to come further north or will they just eventually slide due east with the rest of the storm and keep any heavier precip (and any chance of snow that eventually accumulates) literally a few miles to our south? The storm will gain some latitude. It's not a lot but it will be enough to bring the edge of what's over MD/VA across the southern half of our region. The deep cyclonic flow, moist mid-upper levels (with some omega) and leftover ageostrophic circulations down there will be enough to give our area a few bands of snow this evening. The threat time begins 5-8pm and probably ends 1-4am. Bands circulating westward from the departing storm will continue through the morning, but should focus in Northeast areas mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Winds are really roaring here, getting a lot of trees down throughout SJ. The wind was the glaring threat from this one for a while and the modeling was all over it (even if the snow was not as easy). Still got a lot of hours left of this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 just maxed at 47 mph now with the last gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The storm will gain some latitude. It's not a lot but it will be enough to bring the edge of what's over MD/VA across the southern half of our region. The deep cyclonic flow, moist mid-upper levels (with some omega) and leftover ageostrophic circulations down there will be enough to give our area a few bands of snow this evening. The threat time begins 5-8pm and probably ends 1-4am. Bands circulating westward from the departing storm will continue through the morning, but should focus in Northeast areas mostly. Thanks. I was hoping that was the answer, but after spending the morning watching intermittent light rain with 40 F temps (and reading the observations down in the Northern VA)... well, it was getting easy to see things in the most negative light possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 just maxed at 47 mph now with the last gust I am watching trees sway here at work in the surroundings that I am not used to seeing sway like normal, most trees from between my work and home seem healthy and strong enough not to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Cross-check on the 0Z GFS and NAM to see how they're doing... (Edit: Added EC)Here's the forecasts for PHL:6Z-12Z Wednesday morning0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality0.14" 0.14" 0.13" 0.02" EC wins by 0.01"12Z-18Z Wednesday morning0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality0.46" 0.21" 0.18" 0.04" EC wins by 0.03"18Z-0Z Wednesday afternoon0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality0.25" 0.12" 0.16"0Z-6Z Wednesday evening0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality0.31" 0.03" 0.12"6Z-12Z Thursday morning0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality0.15" 0.01" 0.05"Here's the forecasts for DCA:6Z-12Z Wednesday morning0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality0.65" 0.66" 0.48" 0.25" EC wins by a comparative landslide12Z-18Z Wednesday morning0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality0.41" 0.63" 0.43" 0.55" GFS wins by 0.0818Z-0Z Wednesday afternoon0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality0.44" 0.32" 0.16"0Z-6Z Wednesday evening0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality0.20" 0.01" 0.02"6Z-12Z Thursday morning0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality0.02" 0.00" 0.00"Here's the forecasts for NYC:6Z-12Z Wednesday morning0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality0.00" 0.01" 0.00" 0.00" EC and NAM tie12Z-18Z Wednesday morning0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality0.08" 0.05" 0.03" 0.00" EC wins18Z-0Z Wednesday afternoon0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality0.27" 0.11" 0.06"0Z-6Z Wednesday evening0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality0.28" 0.10" 0.09"6Z-12Z Thursday morning0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality0.32" 0.03" 0.12"EC winning overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGuide Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Looks like some frozen stuff *TRYING* to mix in with the drizzle here in Reading, PA. Continue to be impressed by these winds though.. similar to Sandy up here at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Up to .06" precip here in NW Chesco (352'). Actually had a 30 second period of wet snow. Still raining lightly. Temp 38.6 Max wind gust still 25 in the valley, but roaring on the hilltop. BP 29.77S DP 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ray, thanks for the information. I think the CI is really screwing around with the QPF and actual precip. Clearly, the ECMWF was the best (again) from that end of things. The only good news I can think of for our area, in terms of snow, is the timing (which is a lot better than DC's timing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ray - thanks - presumably, if someone only checks depth every 6 hours vs. at various points in the 6 hours, they could miss significant accumulations that were on the board in that timeframe, but then melted before the 6 hour measurement, correct? I could see that being a significant source of error in reporting, from station to station/observer. Yeah that's possible. More likely when its a snow->rain scenario, though, and this will be the other way around. No change to my call for TTN... up to 2 inches. So far all the models have verified as far, far too wet there with only 0.02" actually having fallen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 There are still some rather nice looking radar returns rotating through interior South Jersey. I am still thinking they are the result of wet snow flakes being picked up really well by the radar beam. I am curious if anybody down that way is seeing any actual snowflakes mixing in with their rain at ground level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ray, thanks for the information. I think the CI is really screwing around with the QPF and actual precip. Clearly, the ECMWF was the best (again) from that end of things. The only good news I can think of for our area, in terms of snow, is the timing (which is a lot better than DC's timing). Yeah, poor DC... I don't think there's been more than a coating in DC, despite the 0.55" just since 12Z. At IAD I saw they reported ~4", ~3" since 12Z on 0.39" precip (8:1 ratio). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 BTW, TTN gusted to 52 mph so far. Damn impressive! The woods has kept my parents from gusting any more than 27 mph... oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Stone Harbor Blvd. in Cape May County, credit to Stone Harbor FD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Up to 56 mph at our West Cape May station during the last hour, which is particularly impressive since it's only a 3 m tower. 5 min reports and updates here: http://njstorm.org Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Rain and wind with a few flakes mixed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Stone Harbor Blvd. in Cape May County, credit to Stone Harbor FD. Wow, considering these poles (presumably... although I guess they could be replacements) survived Sandy, it is saying something that they came down today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gump Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The rain has has finally started here in Toms RIver with this band rotating in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I really have a bad feeling about what could happen later with this wind. Even if the snow doesn't stick on the ground, if it sticks on the elevated surfaces at all, wires/trees, I really think we're in trouble power wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The GFS seems like it has really nailed that convection just east of the DelMarVa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 More wind damage. I can confirm at least some damage there, FD was dispatched there not too long ago. @Scancumberlandc: Vineland, NJ (Cumberland) Getting reports of wind damage at the Vineland high school the roof is flying off by the back of d wing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I just stepped outside for a minute. Snow or no snow, it is a nasty day out there. Winds are howling out of the NE which makes the temps and light rain feel a LOT worse than they really are. I am not exaggerating when I say it feels like a tropical storm type event... though the fact that it is raining (rather than snowing) certainly adds to the effect. Presumably, if/when a couple of flakes work their way into the mix, it will stop feeling quite so tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gump Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow, considering these poles (presumably... although I guess they could be replacements) survived Sandy, it is saying something that they came down today. Sandy came into the coast further north then Cape May... maybe that is one factor, wind direction difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I wouldn't rule out a few bands that rotate westward capable of covering you up. Deep cyclonic flow without a lot of strong convergence (vertically stacked system) will still have powerful conveyor belts. I could see a few bands shooting back west. The DC-BWI area is now getting widespread TSSN but yeah that's too bad. Did the NWS take into consideration that this would be banded, so there would be melting rates today and/or the ratios being less than 8:1? Just because you get 1.5" QPF, doesn't mean you necessarily can achieve 6-10 inches. Will definitely be looking out for those bands. The predicted totals were too widespread given the time of year, daytime and temperatures in place..I thought IAD could pull off 8 with heavy rates, but it looks more like 5-6..DCA/95 I was very skeptical for. On a side note, these guys got Walloped ( sorry ) before the center passed over them...that convective conveyor is awesome down there. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=vef&sid=KWAL&num=72&raw=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Sandy came into the coast further north then Cape May... maybe that is one factor, wind direction difference? Definitely a possibility... they could have been battered real good from Sandy's winds in one direction and then today's battering from a different direction was enough to finish them off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdog127 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 A buddy of mine just posted this a little bit ago from Berkley Twp, NJ http://www.youtube.com/embed/Ef9-F0iGQ1s He also mentioned some embedded snowflakes in the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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