3/6-7 obs thread

[NJ_Ken]

Anyone care to recommend (if possible ha ha) a particular short-range model for forecasting radar presentation? A co-worker is trying to drive down I-95 from Newark, DE to College Park, MD for a 7:00 BB game b/w University of Maryland and North Carolina. Given the nature of this storm, I would think that I-95 would be safe to drive, but a real slow slog, unless rates are predicted to spike upward. If rates spike upward, that would make everything stick to the pavement. I am thinking that radar presentation (if accurate again ha ha) would show what kinds of rates would be predicted at hourly intervals from 4-7 pm. It's a huge game and tickets were a birthday present, so he really doesn't want to miss it. At the same time, he wants to be safe.

 

I've been following the mid-Atlantic observation thread and, from College Park on north, it sounds like, as of this moment, there is nothing more than rain-snow mix alternating with plain old rain along I-95 as far north as Baltimore than just plain old rain north of that.  If your co-worker could leave now, he would likely be golden and barely see a flake.  Even if things deteriorate (relatively speaking) later in the afternoon/evening, I have a hard time seeing I-95 being anything but wet given current conditions and forecast.         

 

EDIT:  Looking at the radar, a heavy band is about to rotate onshore into Central Delaware.  I am guessing it will be rain, but it seems like the standard all morning (both down in DC/Baltimore and, to a lesser extent, even up here) has been that the heavier the precip, the more likely it will mix with and/or change to snow.  As such, I suppose there is a chance that that that band might be the beginnings of some snow in Dover, which, of course, could lead to things going downhill quickly.  I still think I-95 from the I-495 split and points north will be nothing but wet today and even tonight.  Roads in Delaware between I-95 and Dover might be different... especially later in the day and tonight.    

[tombo82685]

had a peak gust of 45 mph so far at the course. That is pretty impressive and one of the top winds on the station so far behind sandy.

[Heisy]

Snowlurker, roads will be wet, not covered. Hell I'm in NW VA where we have like 9-10 inches and main roads are just wet with slush. 

[Big Jims Videos]

Windy and light rain in Hershey. I have a feelin many of the current forecasts for south central pa snowfall will be extremely too high

[HM]

 

I think tonight may end up too warm for the most part..maybe a coating - locally 2" after midnight? ...I'm much more interested in round 2 Thu night..that could be a 1-3/2-4 deal.

I think the profiles get interesting across ILG-PHL points south/east between 21z-00z through 06z on the GFS. The profiles are moist 700-300mb with vertical motion 700-500mb. It still has the 900-700mb RH dropping a bit, cutting into the QPF, but the profiles could support from snow down this way for a while this evening (generally in that range you are talking about). I think this could skirt New Brunswick / Trenton area tonight too.

GFS is reasonable right now I'd say (along with last night's EURO of course).

[RobbTC]

61 MPH gust in Lewes DE

 

1042 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LEWES NOS BUOY 38.78N 75.12W
03/06/2013 M61 MPH ANZ431 DE NDBC BUOY

[HM]

KSBY 061634Z 05035G46KT 2SM RA OVC016 08/06 A2937 RMK AO2 PK WND 05047/1621 P0004

Nice wind report 20 minutes ago.

Edit: not as nice as above lol

[dssbss]

Anyone see the advisories for Berks/Lehigh/Lebanon being dropped soon

[Bluescat1]

42.1 TTN light rain but house shaking wind.

[Harbourton]

Gusts at TTN airport up to 43 mph - pretty impressive this far inland. Any reports from the barrier islands?

[NJ_Ken]

Anyone see the advisories for Berks/Lehigh/Lebanon being dropped soon

 

I hate to use (even in paraphrased form) a Bastardi-ism, but it is better to stick with one forecast and be wrong once than change it multiple times and risk being wrong many times.  For now, I am sure they will stick with the advisories up there (and down this way) for the time being, at least until guidance and radar returns make it very, VERY clear that it just ain't happening no way, no how.    

[Lady Di]

this was all modeled to. If anything is going to happen it will be late afternoon and evening. The nam is the only one really bullish on this, so my confidence is low. The stuff thurs night might be better than this whole storm. 

Interesting blob of light stuff  all the way up into southern Maine.

Think we may see some of wrap up?  Seems the main low needs to keep moving slow and ne? 

Snowlurker, roads will be wet, not covered. Hell I'm in NW VA where we have like 9-10 inches and main roads are just wet with slush. 

You took a road trip?

 

 

Not much to report here in West Chester. Drizzle and wind.

[RowanBrandon]

Pretty impressive rain bands have been rolling through throughout the day.

[chubbs]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA

1158 AM EST WED MAR 6 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...

COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20

NM...

* UNTIL 100 PM EST

* AT 1154 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS TO NEARLY 50 KNOTS FROM 8 NM WEST

OF OCEAN CITY INLET TO 12 NM NORTHWEST OF POORMANS CANYON...MOVING

NORTHWEST AT 35 KNOTS.

[HM]

The convection that was being accurately modeled has definitely come to fruition. It is enough to get the SPC's attention (see convective outlook) and a special marine warning (along with the impressive wind reports above). We've got another 9-12 hours of strong easterly winds for DE / south NJ and a high tide on the way.

[tombo82685]

Interesting blob of light stuff  all the way up into southern Maine.

Think we may see some of wrap up?  Seems the main low needs to keep moving slow and ne? 

You took a road trip?

 

 

Not much to report here in West Chester. Drizzle and wind.

Your location i think has a decent shot, but locations west of philly may not get into it. As HM alluded to it looks like i95 south and east

[NJwinter23]

 

I think the profiles get interesting across ILG-PHL points south/east between 21z-00z through 06z on the GFS. The profiles are moist 700-300mb with vertical motion 700-500mb. It still has the 900-700mb RH dropping a bit, cutting into the QPF, but the profiles could support from snow down this way for a while this evening (generally in that range you are talking about). I think this could skirt New Brunswick / Trenton area tonight too.

GFS is reasonable right now I'd say (along with last night's EURO of course).

 

Fair enough down that way.. I'm not expecting much of anything up this way in CT tonight, but am excited for Thu night. Meanwhile, I feel bad for the immediate BWI/DCA area today.

[NJ_Ken]

I've just been skimming local observations some more and temperature-wise, it is shockingly consistent (and consistently not-too-good).  Pretty much the entire Mt. Holly CWA that is below, say, 300 feet elevation (and that covers all of us east of the fall line) is between 39 F and 41 F.  Even those with some real elevation (800+ ft) aren't doing much better than 36 F or 37 F.  That ain't gonna do it.       

[RowanBrandon]

I've just been skimming local observations some more and temperature-wise, it is shockingly consistent (and consistently not-too-good).  Pretty much the entire Mt. Holly CWA that is below, say, 300 feet elevation (and that covers all of us east of the fall line) is between 39 F and 41 F.  Even those with some real elevation (800+ ft) aren't doing much better than 36 F or 37 F.  That ain't gonna do it.       

 

I think timing matters too. During daylight hours it won't cut it at all, but I think we could see a couple hours of thumping snow after 00z tonight.

[RowanBrandon]

Mt. Holly cuts back on totals:

[snowlurker]

Snowlurker, roads will be wet, not covered. Hell I'm in NW VA where we have like 9-10 inches and main roads are just wet with slush.

Thanks for the info and for your special blue ice!

[Quakertown needs snow]

[HM]

 

Fair enough down that way.. I'm not expecting much of anything up this way in CT tonight, but am excited for Thu night. Meanwhile, I feel bad for the immediate BWI/DCA area today.

 

I wouldn't rule out a few bands that rotate westward capable of covering you up. Deep cyclonic flow without a lot of strong convergence (vertically stacked system) will still have powerful conveyor belts. I could see a few bands shooting back west.

The DC-BWI area is now getting widespread TSSN but yeah that's too bad. Did the NWS take into consideration that this would be banded, so there would be melting rates today and/or the ratios being less than 8:1? Just because you get 1.5" QPF, doesn't mean you necessarily can achieve 6-10 inches.

[Bliz299]

As of 12:30pm: peak gust 64mph@12:16pm, peak 1-min. avg 39mph@12:24pm. Temp. 40. Precip. aprx. 0.65".

[snowlurker]

I've been following the mid-Atlantic observation thread and, from College Park on north, it sounds like, as of this moment, there is nothing more than rain-snow mix alternating with plain old rain along I-95 as far north as Baltimore than just plain old rain north of that. If your co-worker could leave now, he would likely be golden and barely see a flake. Even if things deteriorate (relatively speaking) later in the afternoon/evening, I have a hard time seeing I-95 being anything but wet given current conditions and forecast.

EDIT: Looking at the radar, a heavy band is about to rotate onshore into Central Delaware. I am guessing it will be rain, but it seems like the standard all morning (both down in DC/Baltimore and, to a lesser extent, even up here) has been that the heavier the precip, the more likely it will mix with and/or change to snow. As such, I suppose there is a chance that that that band might be the beginnings of some snow in Dover, which, of course, could lead to things going downhill quickly. I still think I-95 from the I-495 split and points north will be nothing but wet today and even tonight. Roads in Delaware between I-95 and Dover might be different... especially later in the day and tonight.

good point. Better to go the 95 route than the Delmarva/301 route also because of the Gale Warning on the Chesapeake. I wouldn't want to cross the Bay Bridge with the wind gusts they expect.

[NJ_Ken]

I think timing matters too. During daylight hours it won't cut it at all, but I think we could see a couple hours of thumping snow after 00z tonight.

 

You may be right down your way (and hopefully up may way, too), but it is going to be real close up here.  Those bands just don't seem to want to work north and keep falling apart as they reach me.... and the low seems to want to just head out to sea due east.  

 

By the way, there are some sick radar echos heading into interior South Jersey right now.  I am guessing they are wet snow showing up on the radar rather than really heavy rain.... but I have doubts that the wet snow is quite reaching the ground.  Anybody seeing anything down there?    

[Thunder Road]

To think I was concerned when the GFS was spitting out 36 for 2 m temps.  We're sitting at 41 right now!  (Bensalem, PA, 118 ft elevation)  I don't think any model had us quite this warm at the surface.

[HM]

There are mid level lapse rates reaching/exceeding 8c/km where the convection is located off DELMARVA. The profiles are likely littered with CI to the west which cancels out any CSI potential. Secondary circulations / ageostrophic winds are ruling the precipitation shield, bringing large subsidence areas during daylight hours in March (increases melting rates for sure).

Regular CI / convection can really cause mayhem in the cold sector. The deep warm/ridge up to 700mb extending back to MD and negative tilt will keep the fetch going for them but the convection is really going to make the snow shield look mad.

This is more evidence that the GFS was more correct with the lowering RH over the Delware Valley tonight between 700-900mb and less QPF. Of course, latent heat processes with convection and general cyclonic flow can still support bands that rotate back west tonight.

[am19psu]

There are mid level lapse rates reaching/exceeding 8c/km where the convection is located off DELMARVA. The profiles are likely littered with CI to the west which cancels out any CSI potential. Secondary circulations / ageostrophic winds are ruling the precipitation shield, bringing large subsidence areas during daylight hours in March (increases melting rates for sure).

Regular CI / convection can really cause mayhem in the cold sector. The deep warm/ridge up to 700mb extending back to MD and negative tilt will keep the fetch going for them but the convection is really going to make the snow shield look mad.

This is more evidence that the GFS was more correct with the lowering RH over the Delware Valley tonight between 700-900mb and less QPF. Of course, latent heat processes with convection and general cyclonic flow can still support bands that rotate back west tonight.

This is what short range forecasting is all about, folks

[NJ_Ken]

There are mid level lapse rates reaching/exceeding 8c/km where the convection is located off DELMARVA. The profiles are likely littered with CI to the west which cancels out any CSI potential. Secondary circulations / ageostrophic winds are ruling the precipitation shield, bringing large subsidence areas during daylight hours in March (increases melting rates for sure).

Regular CI / convection can really cause mayhem in the cold sector. The deep warm/ridge up to 700mb extending back to MD and negative tilt will keep the fetch going for them but the convection is really going to make the snow shield look mad.

This is more evidence that the GFS was more correct with the lowering RH over the Delware Valley tonight between 700-900mb and less QPF. Of course, latent heat processes with convection and general cyclonic flow can still support bands that rotate back west tonight.

 

So far, it seems like the heavier bands that are rotating back our way (I am just south of you right on the Cherry Hill/Mt. Laurel, NJ border) seem to be falling apart as they hit the 40N line +/-.  Is there any impetus to get those bands to come further north or will they just eventually slide due east with the rest of the storm and keep any heavier precip (and any chance of snow that eventually accumulates) literally a few miles to our south?