Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

3/6-7 obs thread


tombo82685

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 314
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Ray - any advice for how best to do snow measurements in a storm where some of the snow is likely melting as it's falling?  I'm tired and don't have time to look it up and figured you'd just know off the top of your head.  Is it still measure every 6 hours or is there any allowance for intermediate measurements?  Thanks.  While we're at it, haven't followed the Philly thread, but what are your thoughts for Central Jersey (especialy Trenton to Edison)? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ray - any advice for how best to do snow measurements in a storm where some of the snow is likely melting as it's falling?  I'm tired and don't have time to look it up and figured you'd just know off the top of your head.  Is it still measure every 6 hours or is there any allowance for intermediate measurements?  Thanks.  While we're at it, haven't followed the Philly thread, but what are your thoughts for Central Jersey (especialy Trenton to Edison)? 

You can measure as often as necessary; the 6-hour rule applies only to clearing the board.  The actual snowfall is the maximum depth measured during that 6 hour period between clearings, even if it was an hour after you last cleared it. 

 

As far as my thoughts... the 0Z NAM was drier, some of the other guidance was a bit wetter.  The east wind off the ocean seems to be doing its thing, so now its kinda wait and see.  I'm nervous my coating-2" might be a bit low for TTN, but I'm not changing anything at this time.  Edison could make out a bit better being further northeast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NWS PHI 

 

 

THE FCST BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC THIS EVENING.  THE PRECIP SHUD TRANSITION TO SNOW AND THEN ITS JUST A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH QPF IS LEFT.  BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE SOME QPF BETWEEN 07/00Z AND 07/06Z AND MUCH LESS BETWEEN 07/06Z AND 07/12Z.  SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH QPF IS LEFT AND OF COURSE, WHAT THE TEMPS ARE.SO, FOR NOW, WILL CONVERT THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES WHERE IT WAS IN EFFECT AND ADD MERCER, MONMOUTH, OCEAN, SOMERSET AND HUNTED IN NJ.  DEPENDING ON WHAT LATER GUIDANCE DOES, IT THE ADVY CUD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

NWS PHI 

 

 

THE FCST BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC THIS EVENING.  THE PRECIP SHUD TRANSITION TO SNOW AND THEN ITS JUST A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH QPF IS LEFT.  BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE SOME QPF BETWEEN 07/00Z AND 07/06Z AND MUCH LESS BETWEEN 07/06Z AND 07/12Z.  SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH QPF IS LEFT AND OF COURSE, WHAT THE TEMPS ARE.SO, FOR NOW, WILL CONVERT THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES WHERE IT WAS IN EFFECT AND ADD MERCER, MONMOUTH, OCEAN, SOMERSET AND HUNTED IN NJ.  DEPENDING ON WHAT LATER GUIDANCE DOES, IT THE ADVY CUD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

This should probably go in the forecast thread...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I did notice some snow flakes mixing in on the way into work. I work about 5 mins from the airport.

 

Interestingly, PHL is reporting rain/snow mix.  39/33.  Obviously nothing is going to stick at that temp... I think its 35 in DC and it didn't look like anything was sticking there (in the city, I mean) on the TWC live shot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cross-check on the 0Z GFS and NAM to see how they're doing... (Edit:  Added EC)

 

 

 

Here's the forecasts for PHL:

 

6Z-12Z Wednesday morning

0Z NAM  0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.14" 0.14" 0.13" 0.02" EC wins by 0.01"

 

12Z-18Z Wednesday morning

0Z NAM  0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.46" 0.21" 0.18"

 

18Z-0Z Wednesday afternoon

0Z NAM  0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.25" 0.12" 0.16"

 

0Z-6Z Wednesday evening

0Z NAM  0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.31" 0.03" 0.12"

 

6Z-12Z Thursday morning

0Z NAM  0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.15" 0.01" 0.05"

 

 

 

 

Here's the forecasts for DCA:

 

6Z-12Z Wednesday morning

0Z NAM  0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.65" 0.66" 0.48" 0.25"  EC wins by a comparative landslide

 

12Z-18Z Wednesday morning

0Z NAM  0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.41" 0.63" 0.43"

 

18Z-0Z Wednesday afternoon

0Z NAM  0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.44" 0.32" 0.16"

 

0Z-6Z Wednesday evening

0Z NAM  0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.20" 0.01" 0.02"

 

6Z-12Z Thursday morning

0Z NAM  0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.02" 0.00" 0.00"

 

 

 

Here's the forecasts for NYC:

 

6Z-12Z Wednesday morning

0Z NAM  0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.00" 0.01" 0.00" 0.00" EC and NAM tie

 

12Z-18Z Wednesday morning

0Z NAM  0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.08" 0.05" 0.03"

 

18Z-0Z Wednesday afternoon

0Z NAM  0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.27" 0.11" 0.06"

 

0Z-6Z Wednesday evening

0Z NAM  0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.28" 0.10" 0.09"

 

6Z-12Z Thursday morning

0Z NAM  0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.32" 0.03" 0.12"

 

 

 

Now lets watch to see which is more "right".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...