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3/6-7 obs thread

tombo82685

By tombo82685,
in Philadelphia Region

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

Cross-check on the 0Z GFS and NAM to see how they're doing... (Edit: Added EC)



Here's the forecasts for PHL:

6Z-12Z Wednesday morning
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.14" 0.14" 0.13" 0.02" EC wins by 0.01"

12Z-18Z Wednesday morning
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.46" 0.21" 0.18" 0.04" EC wins by 0.03"

18Z-0Z Wednesday afternoon
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.25" 0.12" 0.16" 0.05" GFS wins by 0.04"

0Z-6Z Wednesday evening
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.31" 0.03" 0.12" 0.02" GFS wins by 0.09"

6Z-12Z Thursday morning
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.15" 0.01" 0.05"




Here's the forecasts for DCA:

6Z-12Z Wednesday morning
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.65" 0.66" 0.48" 0.25" EC wins by 0.17"

12Z-18Z Wednesday morning
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.41" 0.63" 0.43" 0.55" GFS wins by 0.08"

18Z-0Z Wednesday afternoon
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.44" 0.32" 0.16" 0.20" EC wins by 0.12"

0Z-6Z Wednesday evening
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.20" 0.01" 0.02" 0.00" GFS wins by 0.01"

6Z-12Z Thursday morning
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.02" 0.00" 0.00"



Here's the forecasts for NYC:

6Z-12Z Wednesday morning
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.00" 0.01" 0.00" 0.00" EC and NAM tie, beating GFS by 0.01"

12Z-18Z Wednesday morning
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.08" 0.05" 0.03" 0.00" EC wins by 0.02"

18Z-0Z Wednesday afternoon
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.27" 0.11" 0.06" 0.00" EC wins by 0.05"

0Z-6Z Wednesday evening
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.28" 0.10" 0.09" Trace EC wins by 0.01"

6Z-12Z Thursday morning
0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality
0.32" 0.03" 0.12"



EC winning overall, though GFS not far behind.

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Absolute Humidity

Absolute Humidity

Posted
Posted

Cross-check on the 0Z GFS and NAM to see how they're doing... (Edit: Added EC)

Here's the forecasts for PHL:

6Z-12Z Wednesday morning

0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.14" 0.14" 0.13" 0.02" EC wins by 0.01"

12Z-18Z Wednesday morning

0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.46" 0.21" 0.18" 0.04" EC wins by 0.03"

18Z-0Z Wednesday afternoon

0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.25" 0.12" 0.16" 0.05" GFS wins by 0.04"

0Z-6Z Wednesday evening

0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.31" 0.03" 0.12" 0.02" GFS wins by 0.09"

6Z-12Z Thursday morning

0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.15" 0.01" 0.05"

Here's the forecasts for DCA:

6Z-12Z Wednesday morning

0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.65" 0.66" 0.48" 0.25" EC wins by 0.17"

12Z-18Z Wednesday morning

0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.41" 0.63" 0.43" 0.55" GFS wins by 0.08"

18Z-0Z Wednesday afternoon

0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.44" 0.32" 0.16" 0.20" EC wins by 0.12"

0Z-6Z Wednesday evening

0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.20" 0.01" 0.02" 0.00" GFS wins by 0.01"

6Z-12Z Thursday morning

0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.02" 0.00" 0.00"

Here's the forecasts for NYC:

6Z-12Z Wednesday morning

0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.00" 0.01" 0.00" 0.00" EC and NAM tie, beating GFS by 0.01"

12Z-18Z Wednesday morning

0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.08" 0.05" 0.03" 0.00" EC wins by 0.02"

18Z-0Z Wednesday afternoon

0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.27" 0.11" 0.06" 0.00" EC wins by 0.05"

0Z-6Z Wednesday evening

0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.28" 0.10" 0.09" Trace EC wins by 0.01"

6Z-12Z Thursday morning

0Z NAM 0Z GFS 0Z EC Reality

0.32" 0.03" 0.12"

EC winning overall, though GFS not far behind.

That seems to be the way I remember things, EC better overall with Our low Rez GFS pulling second.

Anyway, have an actual trace or .1" accumulation.

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

Tomorrow evening starting to look like a non event for most of us, except our far N&WE zones.

No surprise though, as I called it.

Fixed.  I think TTN will get somewhere between a coating and 2 inches.  And I think, unlike last night, this one has a better shot at actually accumulating.  It looks colder... just cold enough.

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phlwx

phlwx

Posted
Posted

Fixed.  I think TTN will get somewhere between a coating and .2 inches.  And I think, unlike last night, this one has a better shot at actually accumulating.  It looks colder... just cold enough.

 

I think you forgot a decimal point. ;)

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SP

SP

Posted
Posted
Light snow at the shore

Any accumulations? I presume not based on your not mentioning it, but just checking.

Dusting. It's 36f and has not been below freezing so sticking is a tough issue....but it does show the intensity has varied to about moderate levels. You can see the bands moving in from the ocean.

Btw the winds of this storm have continued the trend of piling up debris on the property post Sandy. We did not lose any big trees this time around but some large branches are down along the back fence line.....the horses seem curious to find an opening.

Can't wait to fire up all the toys for a weekend clean up party!!

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

Posted
Posted

Finally had a nice band rotate in early this morning up in sw CT, went to 1/2 mile and got a quick coating..that melted off in between our enxt band coming in. The rents in Holmdel reported a good burst of snow this monring, coated things briefly..

 

Tonight and tomorrow morning looks pretty fun up this way and could produce a 2-4/3-5 type deal.

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Big Jims Videos

Big Jims Videos

Posted
Posted

Probably the worst bust since march of 2001. Lancaster ended up with nothing. Nada. Rain. A mixed wet flake at times. A certain number one tv station had the county in for 8-12 the night before. Didn't even get a coating. State college Nws for 4-8. Nothing. Rain. Watching the totals adjusted downward all day was painful. And now this second system trough will miss my area all together. Us Lancaster county peeps are hurting today. It was rough. Bad. Shades of march 2001.

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NJ_Ken

NJ_Ken

Posted
Posted

Probably the worst bust since march of 2001. Lancaster ended up with nothing. Nada. Rain. A mixed wet flake at times. A certain number one tv station had the county in for 8-12 the night before. Didn't even get a coating. State college Nws for 4-8. Nothing. Rain. Watching the totals adjusted downward all day was painful. And now this second system trough will miss my area all together. Us Lancaster county peeps are hurting today. It was rough. Bad. Shades of march 2001.

 

If you haven't already, you should read a couple of posts the mid-Atlantic observation thread.  Most of the folks in the immediate DC and Baltimore areas (and points south and east) were/are as depressed, angry, miserable as I have ever seen them.... and that is saying something.  Yesterday definitely sucked for the entire wider Philly area, but we were always on the fringe and hoping... sometimes reasonably, sometimes unreasonably... that things would swing in our favor.  The DC folks were allegedly in the crosshairs for something historic even as the precipitation was starting on Tuesday night and everything just fizzled on them (except for those much further west and, oddly enough, those further south down toward RIC).  I rarely sympathize much with those in a screw-zone (except when it's me of course. lol), but yesterday I actually felt for them.  

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LMolineuxLM1

LMolineuxLM1

Posted
Posted

Probably the worst bust since march of 2001. Lancaster ended up with nothing. Nada. Rain. A mixed wet flake at times. A certain number one tv station had the county in for 8-12 the night before. Didn't even get a coating. State college Nws for 4-8. Nothing. Rain. Watching the totals adjusted downward all day was painful. And now this second system trough will miss my area all together. Us Lancaster county peeps are hurting today. It was rough. Bad. Shades of march 2001.

Try us Delco people also. But yeah I didn't put my heart into yesterday glad I didn't as I was extremely busy at work.

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

 

Finally had a nice band rotate in early this morning up in sw CT, went to 1/2 mile and got a quick coating..that melted off in between our enxt band coming in. The rents in Holmdel reported a good burst of snow this monring, coated things briefly..

 

Tonight and tomorrow morning looks pretty fun up this way and could produce a 2-4/3-5 type deal.

 

Your accumulation is the only thing I got right snowfall-wise. lol

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

 

This wasnt a proud forecasting time for anyone lol. i'm hoping the nam is correct for tonight..The SREF's seem to be hitting on your MPV up this way at 850 and 700.

 

Maybe I'll give the soundings a look later up your way and check it out. I'm not too thrilled with this setup down here but appreciate the colder profiles.

I am at least happy about the wind aspect and coastal flooding forecasts overall. The prediction of the convection was also good. Of course, I didn't have the epiphany until the convection had formed on what it would do to the snow shield across the DC area. If I had recognized the CI potential / subsidence over MD, I could have warned them the day before...of course, I would have been unpopular.

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Porsche

Porsche

Posted
Posted

Probably the worst bust since march of 2001. Lancaster ended up with nothing. Nada. Rain. A mixed wet flake at times. A certain number one tv station had the county in for 8-12 the night before. Didn't even get a coating. State college Nws for 4-8. Nothing. Rain. Watching the totals adjusted downward all day was painful. And now this second system trough will miss my area all together. Us Lancaster county peeps are hurting today. It was rough. Bad. Shades of march 2001.

Yeah I'm with you on that, although Eric Horst was showing that dip in our area so he went 3-6 but that didn't even pan out, that was a concern that I kept seeing on the euro snowfall maps and then Eric's too, it just turn out to be nothing, and yes 2001 was at least to me a much harder bust. 

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

Posted
Posted

  

Maybe I'll give the soundings a look later up your way and check it out. I'm not too thrilled with this setup down here but appreciate the colder profiles.

I am at least happy about the wind aspect and coastal flooding forecasts overall. The prediction of the convection was also good. Of course, I didn't have the epiphany until the convection had formed on what it would do to the snow shield across the DC area. If I had recognized the CI potential / subsidence over MD, I could have warned them the day before...of course, I would have been unpopular.

 

Yeah that first comment was just in regards to the short term snowfall prediction. Philly was tough and I dont think we ever got bullish there, but further south, even aside from the convection/subsidence you speak of, March in DC + ****ty airmass for even March standards should have trumped all along the I-95 corridor... I thought everything else including the long/medium range calls leading up to this threat were outstanding in general...

 

As for tonight, I'm wondering if the NAM/SREF is onto something with the heavier precip than the globals, in light of the MPV stuff and what not. Soundings are certainly cold enough for snow, though I did glance at nam bufkits and the best lift is just below the snow growth region through around 12z (HPN and BDR)..and I agree, it unfortunately does not seem like much for you to get excited about further south.

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