Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Funky soundings once the 850s pass west pretty narrow warmth most layers are pretty cold including surface.........pellets, rimed flakes? odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 For further evidence use the high resolution NAM. Its maybe an hour of drizzle before the good precipitation moves in and things flip over to snow. So the rain is completely irrelevant. I'm not insinuating that the NAM is correct...but if it is...this is a major snowstorm. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_0z/cloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Funky soundings once the 850s pass west pretty narrow warmth most layers are pretty cold including surface.........pellets, rimed flakes? odd. Occlusion and a cutoff mid and upper level low creates a really funky forecast. Hard to say I can draw back on a similar situation. I would think snow..to sleet/crap flakes. Little rain away from the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Occlusion and a cutoff mid and upper level low creates a really funky forecast. Hard to say I can draw back on a similar situation. I would think snow..to sleet/crap flakes. Little rain away from the shore. Yeah looks cold at 900 Will just said perhaps crap flakes below the warm level lol, just weird. In any event that was a fun run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's been very screwy with its thermals, I mean it was torching us for tomorrow just yesterday. Agree. I think with the heavy precip and nams higher temp profiles for that time, most of the area will be snow, probably central LI west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The NAM is so weird for the inverted trough temp proiles because of the orientation of the low, the isopleths gets squished and flattens out making it more oblate to the north of the low and the gradient between the 850 low and the Higher heights to the north allows for a strong easterly LLJ of around 50 kts to pretty much obliterate the cold air at that level... If this trends colder with the precip then this would be even more epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 ScreenHunter_17 Mar. 05 22.02.png Thanks for the map. I am colorblind, could you please tell me what that shows for central Long Island? Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 As far as the initial slug of precipitation goes, with the cold conveyor belt developing on the NAM, I couldn't disagree with you more. This run isn't really even close to providing precipiation problems for most people aside from those sitting on the beach. The 925 hPa low is closed off well offshore and there is cold air funneling down with strong northeast winds. I don't foresee any problems once moderate precipitation begins. Sure it could start as drizzle or rain, but its going to be mostly snow. Also, not sure what "only" 6-8" means...the 18z NAM clown maps had closer to 10" for NYC and given 1" of QPF in March that makes a ton of sense. I'm not disagreeing with you on the CCB event. That's gonna be a lot of snow and I think 10" isn't out of the question, especially along the low ridges and northern burbs. The point I was making (in my reply to Zelocita who said "1.5" of snow/mostly snow") was that a lot of the total QPF on this run is coming from the norlun, which happens to hit us as the low occludes and we switch to sleet/rain/crap. Weenies running around yelling "OMG 1.75"+ QPF" makes it seem like they think all of that is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Also of note, a quick glance at the 4km NAM BUFKIT for EWR shows a lack of saturation in the dendritic growth zone during the day Thursday between hours, say, 36 and 50. It'd likely result in drizzle/freezing drizzle (surface temps bounce around between 32F and 35F). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm not disagreeing with you on the CCB event. That's gonna be a lot of snow and I think 10" isn't out of the question, especially along the low ridges and northern burbs. The point I was making (in my reply to Zelocita who said "1.5" of snow/mostly snow") was that a lot of the total QPF on this run is coming from the norlun, which happens to hit us as the low occludes and we switch to sleet/rain/crap. Weenies running around yelling "OMG 1.75"+ QPF" makes it seem like they think all of that is snow. Uhhhh.... About 1.5" or so occurs before hour 42, especially further east... Not associated with the norlun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 How's the RGEM for here? SNE likes it for them later, but does it get QPF far enough north for us? My guess is it does, can someone confirm? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The high res NAM QPF totals through hr 60 are in excess of 1.50" area wide with pockets of 2.00"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The NAM is an all out blizzard , but you re not goin to get a warning like that unless the GFS and Euro progg the same thing. Sad to say if it was the other way around. They may already b up IMO Unless the GFS comes on board in a half hour expect the hedging to continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Even there, no offense, off the mark. the main slug from the coastal has consistently been running 1in+ on the Nam for 4 runs now area wide- with ocassional exception of NW burbs. That being said & cooling of column handeling P type issues we would still be looking at possible double digits ( or a more reasonable 6-10 from city east) I'm not disagreeing with you on the CCB event. That's gonna be a lot of snow and I think 10" isn't out of the question, especially along the low ridges and northern burbs. The point I was making (in my reply to Zelocita who said "1.5" of snow/mostly snow") was that a lot of the total QPF on this run is coming from the norlun, which happens to hit us as the low occludes and we switch to sleet/rain/crap. Weenies running around yelling "OMG 1.75"+ QPF" makes it seem like they think all of that is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 0z NAM is easily over a foot for far NW areas.. Not saying its right but one can only dream And when I say far NW areas I don't mean the frozen tundra of Dobbs Ferry. Im talking about Sussex/Orange counties.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Thanks for the map. I am colorblind, could you please tell me what that shows for central Long Island? Thank you 12 to 16 inches or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The high res NAM QPF totals through hr 60 are in excess of 1.50" area wide with pockets of 2.00"+ Where can you see the total QPF for the high Rez NAM? Ncep doesn't have totals option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I just returned from a date and now I'm confused...people are buying the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I just returned from a date and now I'm confused...people are buying the nam? Funny how quickly things change, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 How's the RGEM for here? SNE likes it for them later, but does it get QPF far enough north for us? My guess is it does, can someone confirm? -skisheep It looks east with less qpf to me compared to 18z for our region. But thats based off the BW maps http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/index_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Where can you see the total QPF for the high Rez NAM? Ncep doesn't have totals option. I have paid maps on storm vista Keep in mind that map was only through hr 60. The high res NAM has moderate to heavy precip still over the areas from the norlun at that hour per the simulated radars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The NAM is an all out blizzard , but you re not goin to get a warning like that unless the GFS and Euro progg the same thing. Sad to say if it was the other way around. They may already b up IMO Unless the GFS comes on board in a half hour expect the hedging to continue Yes, agreed. And I have to say that I think there is a less than 1% chance the GFS will come around. The thought that the NAM is correct and the GFS and Euro and every other global model are wrong is rather, well, extremely remote. The NAM has shown consistently this winter to be about 100 miles or so NW with the precip shield with every major storm this winter for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I just returned from a date and now I'm confused...people are buying the nam? Hope you didn't bag on your date early to come home and look at models !!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 the rgem is still going to be around 20-25mm for nyc metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Funny how quickly things change, huh? Well the one thing you can take from the NAM is overall consistency compared to every other model the past 24 hours. It's also in it's great range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 the rgem is still going to be around 20-25mm for nyc metro It's not as impressed with the CCB, it's back to being warm, but it does hit us hard with the norlun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 the rgem is still going to be around 20-25mm for nyc metro You sure? Looks less to me on the black and whites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 the rgem is still going to be around 20-25mm for nyc metro Much more tame than the NAM. I count between 15 - 20 on the BW maps. Anyway lets see the GFS. I have found the RGEM to be a bot of a dry/east bias the last few storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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