Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Significant Ocean Storm March 6-8 2013 Discussion Part III


earthlight

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Can anyone explain the 2-4" amounts in the NWS-Philly snowfall map from 5:28 pm (did they forget to change the map - looks like the last one) vs. the 1-3" amounts for most counties in north/central Jersey (except Sussex/Morris, which have 2-4" WWA's) and the 1-2" amounts in the AFD?  Wish I knew how to paste the snowfall map in here - any help on that?  Link is below, but if they update it, we'll never know what I was looking at.  Thanks...

 

http://www.erh.noaa..../stormtotal.php

 

AFD says much less, i.e., up to 2" in Sussex/Morris to <1" S/E of I-95 (right about where I am in Middlesex):

 

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS SUSSEX AND MORRIS COUNTIES TO LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I195 CORRIDOR OVER NJ, DE AND MD AND NEAR AND SOUTH OF A TTN TO ABE LINE OVER PA....NORTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF ADDITIONAL SNOW, BUT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MARCH SUN ANGLE THAT WILL TAMP DOWN ANY MORNING ACCUMULATIONS.

 

http://forecast.weat...0&highlight=off

 

HWO says:

 

SOME SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD ACCUMULATE 1 TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS THE FARTHER NORTH ONE GOES. THE SNOW COULD RESULT IN SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
 

http://forecast.weat...Weather Outlook

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mount holly

 

 

 

WHILE NONE OF THE MODELS HAD THE BANDED PRECIPITATION SPOT ON, THEGFS OVERALL LOOKED CLOSER IN THE 6 HR PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z. HARDTO SAY COMPLETELY BUT THE GFS LOOKED BEST OVERALL WITH THE AREALEXTENT AND AMOUNTS EXCEPT FOR CAPE COD WHERE THE WRF-NMMB WASBETTER. THE 500MB INITIALIZATION OF THE 00Z WRF-NMMB WAS A BIT TOOSTRONG WITH THE 500MB FEATURES. THE LATEST RUN STARTS ENHANCINGPRECIPITATION EAST OF BOSTON AND THEN PIVOTS IT INTO NEW JERSEYLATE TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW THE IR CLOUDS AREWARMING APPROACHING MASSACHUSETTS AND THEIR SFC VSBYS HAVE YET TODROP. SO NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT ENHANCED PCPN WORKING TO THATEXTENT TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.OTHERWISE THE 23Z HRRR LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH THE OVERALL RADARDEPICTION AND THEY PIVOT PCPN INTO NEW JERSEY OVERNIGHT. NEARESTBAND HAS NOT DROPPED VSBYS MUCH IN NYC. SO THE POP DISTRIBUTIONWAS ANGLED SLIGHTLY MORE NNW TO SSE THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.ACCUMS BASED ON SPOTTER REPORTS AND TRAFFIC CAMS SEEM TO BEMAINLY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. FARTHER SOUTH, WHILE SNOW HASSTARTED TO FALL, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING. DEW POINTSTHOUGH ARE DROPPING AND WOULD EXPECT THE COATINGS ANDACCUMULATIONS TO START SPREADING SOUTH.THE GFS MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE WHICH ALSO WAS ALIGNING WELLWITH THE MORE ENHANCED ECHOES HAVE THE CORE MOVE THROUGH OUR CWAAROUND 12Z. SO IF THERE IS AN AREA OF CONCERN ABOUT GETTING TOADVISORY LEVELS WOULD THINK MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH AND OCEAN. FOR NOWWE ISSUED AN SPS ABOUT THE SNOW COMING IN TOWARD MORNING AND WILLSEE WHAT THE REST OF GUIDANCE SUITE SHOWS.

 

 

 

 

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...