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Significant Ocean Storm March 6-8 2013 Discussion Part III


earthlight

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There is a nice wall of precp heading SW from MVY & BOS way towards  Eastern LI. is this the beginning of tonight's precp?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=box&loop=yes

Obviously, QPF wise, the NAM is way overdone. But the trend SW is not something to necessarily ignore. The models are picking up on the strength of the block, which helps push things to the southwest. Additionally, it forces the Great Lakes shortwave to go further southwest as well. 

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From my limited experience with norlun troughs, the jackpot area usually end up being a location different from what the models would indicate

How many times do we have to say it, it's not a NORLUN! It's a much larger inverted trough interacting with the main system, it's not going to be like a norlun where 10 mile zone gets a foot and everyone else gets nothing... There will be a sharp cutoff, and I wouldn't want to be in NJ for this, but it's not like a norlun.

 

-skisheep

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Definitely not moderate, hasnt been since that little burst at 7am...I think we will do well tonight 3-5

Stamford is not NJ, we have had several 20-25 dbz bands rotating through that haven't made it that far west. There has been moderate snow here, other obs from the New England forum can confirm.

-skisheep

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screwed us for the main event saves us for part 2? It would surely make meteorologic sense. We'll just have to nowcast see how everything works out. Someone is going to get 6 from this. My best guess would be out near upton into coastal CT. Basically same areas that jackpotted with the blizzard.

Would be nice to get this precip into the HV.. Temps here are mostly in the 32-34 range now. If current trends are correct I can see someone in E NY receiving 5-6"

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Would be nice to get this precip into the HV.. Temps here are mostly in the 32-34 range now. I current trends are correct I can see someone in E NY receiving 5-6"

Oh ya. Radar up there looks excellent. Add in colder starting temps someone is gonna jackpot in that region too I'd presume

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Stamford is not NJ, we have had several 20-25 dbz bands rotating through that haven't made it that far west. There has been moderate snow here, other obs from the New England forum can confirm.

-skisheep

 

Sorry I didnt clarify, I work in downtown Stamford, and have had absolutely clear visual down 95 the entire day, outside of that 7am band...Mod snow is 1/2 mile, I promise vis has not been below a mile all day

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Would be nice to get this precip into the HV.. Temps here are mostly in the 32-34 range now. If current trends are correct I can see someone in E NY receiving 5-6"

If this banding stays over us until 10am tomorrow, it should be more than that I would think.

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Sorry I didnt clarify, I work in downtown Stamford, and have had absolutely clear visual down 95 the entire day, outside of that 7am band...Mod snow is 1/2 mile, I promise vis has not been below a mile all day

OK fair enough, it's sometimes hard to tell the visibility from up high when you don't have a clear visual, I'm just a few blocks from you then. It felt moderate, but I guess what you see isn't what you get. That's quite the commute from NJ to stamford, do you have a place around here? I can't imagine doing that every day...

-skisheep

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OK fair enough, it's sometimes hard to tell the visibility from up high when you don't have a clear visual, I'm just a few blocks from you then. It felt moderate, but I guess what you see isn't what you get. That's quite the commute from NJ to stamford, do you have a place around here? I can't imagine doing that every day...

-skisheep

 

Fair enough...and yeah I do have a place up the road, just never changed the location under my name...I'm back and forth enough anyway...

 

Well things should only be getting better from here on out as the sun sets and the precip fills in. Hopefully it pans out.

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Upton begs to differ with you and says IT IS a Norlun. see below

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

How many times do we have to say it, it's not a NORLUN! It's a much larger inverted trough interacting with the main system, it's not going to be like a norlun where 10 mile zone gets a foot and everyone else gets nothing... There will be a sharp cutoff, and I wouldn't want to be in NJ for this, but it's not like a norlun.

 

-skisheep

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Doyouhave a map? More than 2-3" for here ?

Only BW maps now. But the qpf is extended further SW into NJ and EPA. The brunt of the heaviest is still NE of NYC. I count between 5 and 12 MM for NYC after 7Pm tonight.

Ok so Upton's call for 2 to 5 is a safe bet here near Newark NJ

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Would be nice to get this precip into the HV.. Temps here are mostly in the 32-34 range now. If current trends are correct I can see someone in E NY receiving 5-6"

It's been pretty moderate up here in monroe for a couple hours- finally sticking so we have a coating. Will see what happens.

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