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Significant Ocean Storm March 6-8 2013 Discussion Part III


earthlight

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ACCU shows @  37 NOAA shows  @ 37 , both taken at Belmar Airport

Weatherbug @ 34 , taken at Technology HS  in Colts Neck

Its all farm land , the surface is always a few ticks colder . all the time

 

07722

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ACCU shows @  37 NOAA shows  @ 37 , both taken at Belmar Airport

Weatherbug @ 34 , taken at Technology HS  in Colts Neck

Its all farm land , the surface is always a few ticks colder . all the time

 

07722

 

i assumed you were posting the dewpoint of 34.... because on the rutgers site, there wasnt a single reporting station in NJ reporting a temp that low.

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i assumed you were posting the dewpoint of 34.... because on the rutgers site, there wasnt a single reporting station in NJ reporting a temp that low.

 

Good call though , dew point is 34 .. Whether its 34 or 37 , once its dark I think we go to the freezin mark in a flash as the heavier precip " falls "

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Only thing I would take positive from the new NAM and SREFS is that they both pushed the shield SW of their last runs. They were going east every run and on this run, they both went back southwest.

 

It's something I would take seriously only if the rgem and gfs agree at 18z.

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Only thing I would take positive from the new NAM and SREFS is that they both pushed the shield SW of their last runs. They wer going east every run and on this run, they both went back southwest.

 

It's something I would take seriously only if the rgem and gfs agree at 18z.

 

 

Obviously, QPF wise, the NAM is way overdone. But the trend SW is not something to necessarily ignore. The models are picking up on the strength of the block, which helps push things to the southwest. Additionally, it forces the Great Lakes shortwave to go further southwest as well. 

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0.75 gets to about NYC on the nam with pretty good VVs in the region from about 4am-10am. Thats a period of time where I think we could all pick up a quick 3-4inches. If the nam is right thats more like 6-10in lol which is way too high I would think

I'm just glad the NE trend has hopefully stopped. This is still quite a fickle setup. The radar and recent trend to have strong lift further southwest, to basically NYC north/east is positive to me.

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You have to admit  having the Euro s .75 line  out over Islip and not Montauk  is only 50 miles of lifting difference and  prob within normal error range .

Not saying it comes west  , but the NAM and SREF  are only  50 miles west of the Euro , thats not alot .

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the hi-res radar valid at 7am tomorrow morning is beautiful. It has a band of heavy snow dropping through CT and E NY state into the metro area. Would make for an annoying/messy morning commute I would think. BAsed on the SREF, GFS, EURO, the NAMs precip field is probably pretty close to reality. The only issue is the intensity and amount of precip. Reality will likely be closer to the euro obviously but a compromise solution is still on the table, we'll just have to continue tracking the best dynamics to see how far sw they end up. Should know by around 10pm tonight how things are developing.

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If the strength and orientation of the block is going to help us, it would be now. 

screwed us for the main event saves us for part 2? It would surely make meteorologic sense. We'll just have to nowcast see how everything works out. Someone is going to get 6 from this. My best guess would be out near upton into coastal CT. Basically same areas that jackpotted with the blizzard.

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