WintersGrasp Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 NAM looks a bit juicer ??? Or do my eyes deceive me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 34 in Colts Neck? It's around 40 all around that area http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=40.43034363&lon=-74.40655518&zoom=8&pin=new%20Brunswick%2c%20NJ he's talking dewpoints Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 NAM looks a bit juicer ??? Or do my eyes deceive me Here is a better question: why are you looking at that terrible model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 34 in Colts Neck? It's around 40 all around that area http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=40.43034363&lon=-74.40655518&zoom=8&pin=new%20Brunswick%2c%20NJ ACCU shows @ 37 NOAA shows @ 37 , both taken at Belmar Airport Weatherbug @ 34 , taken at Technology HS in Colts Neck Its all farm land , the surface is always a few ticks colder . all the time 07722 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 NAM looks a bit juicer ??? Or do my eyes deceive me 18z NAM 700mb VVs are further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 18z NAM 700mb VVs are further SW. NAM=Never Amends with other Models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 18z NAM 700mb VVs are further SW. Good sign. I wouldn't take its precip amounts but hopefully the placement of features isn't that far off following the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 nam looks very nice with its depiction through hr 21...temps are really cold to. 32 degree line ends up over the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 NAM=Never Amends with other Models. wouldn't that be NAWOM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 ACCU shows @ 37 NOAA shows @ 37 , both taken at Belmar Airport Weatherbug @ 34 , taken at Technology HS in Colts Neck Its all farm land , the surface is always a few ticks colder . all the time 07722 i assumed you were posting the dewpoint of 34.... because on the rutgers site, there wasnt a single reporting station in NJ reporting a temp that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Just came in from a walk outside, light to moderate snow in stamford downtown, still not sticking though. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 i assumed you were posting the dewpoint of 34.... because on the rutgers site, there wasnt a single reporting station in NJ reporting a temp that low. Good call though , dew point is 34 .. Whether its 34 or 37 , once its dark I think we go to the freezin mark in a flash as the heavier precip " falls " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The NAM is doing a pretty good job at modeling the 1 PM precip shield, FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Only thing I would take positive from the new NAM and SREFS is that they both pushed the shield SW of their last runs. They were going east every run and on this run, they both went back southwest. It's something I would take seriously only if the rgem and gfs agree at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Only thing I would take positive from the new NAM and SREFS is that they both pushed the shield SW of their last runs. They wer going east every run and on this run, they both went back southwest. It's something I would take seriously only if the rgem and gfs agree at 18z. Obviously, QPF wise, the NAM is way overdone. But the trend SW is not something to necessarily ignore. The models are picking up on the strength of the block, which helps push things to the southwest. Additionally, it forces the Great Lakes shortwave to go further southwest as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 ski sheep you're gonna like the 18z nam...1in line to about stamford as well as most of central LI eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Just came in from a walk outside, light to moderate snow in stamford downtown, still not sticking though. -skisheep Definitely not moderate, hasnt been since that little burst at 7am...I think we will do well tonight 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 0.75 gets to about NYC on the nam with pretty good VVs in the region from about 4am-10am. Thats a period of time where I think we could all pick up a quick 3-4inches. If the nam is right thats more like 6-10in lol which is way too high I would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 NAM is beautiful for CT, and a solid hit for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 the hi-res nam has the radar basically looking as is and relatively ragged until about 7 or 8pm when everything fills in and starts to drop SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 0.75 gets to about NYC on the nam with pretty good VVs in the region from about 4am-10am. Thats a period of time where I think we could all pick up a quick 3-4inches. If the nam is right thats more like 6-10in lol which is way too high I would think I'm just glad the NE trend has hopefully stopped. This is still quite a fickle setup. The radar and recent trend to have strong lift further southwest, to basically NYC north/east is positive to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Wish the nam was accurate as even the immediate counties to the west of the city would do ok and it's pretty cold as well, perhaps below freezing. Still think it's a pipe dream though the current radar is encouraging for later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 You have to admit having the Euro s .75 line out over Islip and not Montauk is only 50 miles of lifting difference and prob within normal error range . Not saying it comes west , but the NAM and SREF are only 50 miles west of the Euro , thats not alot . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Just for fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 the trend today has been for best dynamics of the inverted trough to be slightly sw than 00z/06z modeling had it. Very good for us on the fringe here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 the trend today has been for best dynamics of the inverted trough to be slightly sw than 00z/06z modeling had it. Very good for us on the fringe here. If the strength and orientation of the block is going to help us, it would be now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 the trend today has been for best dynamics of the inverted trough to be slightly sw than 00z/06z modeling had it. Very good for us on the fringe here. It's definitely not a bad trend for sure. Another bump west and most of NJ is in for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 the hi-res radar valid at 7am tomorrow morning is beautiful. It has a band of heavy snow dropping through CT and E NY state into the metro area. Would make for an annoying/messy morning commute I would think. BAsed on the SREF, GFS, EURO, the NAMs precip field is probably pretty close to reality. The only issue is the intensity and amount of precip. Reality will likely be closer to the euro obviously but a compromise solution is still on the table, we'll just have to continue tracking the best dynamics to see how far sw they end up. Should know by around 10pm tonight how things are developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Just for fun... NAM just won't quit will it... It really is the Gary Busey of the model world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 If the strength and orientation of the block is going to help us, it would be now. screwed us for the main event saves us for part 2? It would surely make meteorologic sense. We'll just have to nowcast see how everything works out. Someone is going to get 6 from this. My best guess would be out near upton into coastal CT. Basically same areas that jackpotted with the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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