jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The Euro snowfall maps I have show a range across NYC from about 2-3" in Staten Island/s. Brooklyn to 4" ne Queens/n. Bronx. Given the urban heat island, I think that's likely overdone for the sw 2/3 of the city including Brooklyn/Queens/Manhattan/central and sw Queens and s. half of the Bronx. I agree-the airports might come out of this with a trace to less than an inch. If surface temps are above freezing, it will be quite hard to stick unless it's mod-heavy, and 0.2 every 6 hours isn't really good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 So basically you think it's overdone for the whole city? Your explanation of where was a little confusing lol. Anyway I agree euro is a kind of just low enough on the precip to keep things mostly around or under an inch or 2 for NYC I disagree, I think NYC sees between 2" and 3" for this... 3-5" for westchester and western LI, 4-6"+ for CT and LI, locally higher always possible depending on banding and how it sets up. Upton map looks dead on for this, except maybe cut a 1/2 inch off for NYC. They have really done a great job with this storm all things considered... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Danbury is around .7", poughkeepsie is around .63" HPN is .6" you can use that to triangulate you're QPF, you are probably around .55" -skisheep Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I disagree, I think NYC sees between 2" and 3" for this... 3-5" for westchester and western LI, 4-6"+ for CT and LI, locally higher always possible depending on banding and how it sets up. Upton map looks dead on for this, except maybe cut a 1/2 inch off for NYC. They have really done a great job with this storm all things considered... -skisheep Last night's 2-4" they predicted for Nassau was a bust (verified no accumulation). I can see getting a couple or few inches tonight around where I am if things really kick up overnight, but I think rates will have to be higher than the Euro shows to really have a shot at something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 So when would it really start to snow in and around NYC tonight? 6pm, 9pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Danbury is around .7", poughkeepsie is around .63" HPN is .6" you can use that to triangulate you're QPF, you are probably around .55" -skisheep I'm pretty close to HPN. So I assume Mount Vernon is around .55"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I'm pretty close to HPN. So I assume Mount Vernon is around .55"? Maybe .5", but that's pretty close. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I also really like Upton's map for round 2, maybe just leave the door open on the sw side there and call it 1-3 for NYC proper... Last night's stuff is a different show, I thought they were way too aggressive with it...Tonight will be cold enough once the sun sets..Also think the rates will be pretty good at times in the bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Maybe .5", but that's pretty close. -skisheep Okay. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 My thoughts and guess for tonight and tomorrow. I apoligize in advance for the quality of the map, it's very crudly done... Keep in mind I have no meterological experience whatsoever, and have learned everything I know through americanwx. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The main differences on the Euro are slight but important: 1) It has trended a bit stronger with the block at 500 mb. It presses down from Nova Scotia into ME a bit more by Fri morning. 2) It has trended a bit further W with the center of the ocean low and a bit SE with the intensifying vort dropping SE from the Great Lakes (due to the stronger blocking). Bringing the 2 closer together leads to greater/earlier interaction and helps pull the Atlantic moisture further west. 3) It also trended a bit further west (further into eastern SNE) on the firehose easterly jet at 850 mb by Fri morning. All these things lead to heavier precip. extending significantly further west into LI/w. CT/interior SE NY/NYC Good post - I hope you (the Euro) are correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Well, at least tonight NYC/NE NJ, and Long Island have a mini snowstorm of sorts, I mean what else can we call it, not a heavy wind driven blizzard but not a coating either, just a regular small snowstorm that will look nice in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Radar doesn't look bad at all right now for the northern half of NJ: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dix&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 potential snow map.pngMy thoughts and guess for tonight and tomorrow. I apoligize in advance for the quality of the map, it's very crudly done... Keep in mind I have no meterological experience whatsoever, and have learned everything I know through americanwx. -skisheep Hopefully you're right. If I get more than a slushy couple of inches that barely cover the grass completely, I'll be thrilled. Again I'm tempted to get on the Amtrak to Boston to experience the real show instead of being a few rows closer to the show on the sidelines (not the first time this season I've had the temptation). What's Boston at for the season? If they get 10" from this (a real possibility) and Central Park about an inch, that should get them to well over double Central Park. An absolute feast up there for the last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Radar doesn't look bad at all right now for the northern half of NJ: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dix&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes I've had radar echoes over me all day and haven't seen a single flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Radar doesn't look bad at all right now for the northern half of NJ: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dix&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Radar is continuing to back in, even toward Philly/Allentown. Good signs in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I've had radar echoes over me all day and haven't seen a single flake It's because of temps. I'm in Somerset County, and I've had a RA/SN mix all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Snowflakes in Southern Sussex Co. NJ... Waited about 36 hours or to say that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Radar is continuing to back in, even toward Philly/Allentown. Good signs in my book. I agree. It's great that we now have some precipitation to work with. We just need the temperatures to cooperate. Nice burst of precip over the last hour in NE NJ pivoting S and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 15z SREF is very similar to the euro in precip orientation...the only difference is that its probably 0.2in wetter. 0.75 gets very close to NYC this run. Everything is shifted SW basically 40 or so miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 If the current radar gets some enhancement later and hopefully the temps finally fall, then maybe there's still a bit of hope for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 15z SREF is very similar to the euro in precip orientation...the only difference is that its probably 0.2in wetter. 0.75 gets very close to NYC this run. Everything is shifted SW basically 40 or so miles That would match up pretty nicely with current radar showing precip pretty far SW, almost reaching Philly now, as returns keep on pivoting S and W. It's also not too dissimilar to the NAM now. How are temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 also through hr 12 (10pm) only 0.1 has fallen to basically just NE of NYC. So most of what falls after is going to be accumulating snow on the sref. It looks as though 0.5-0.6 frozen for nyc metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 15z SREF is very similar to the euro in precip orientation...the only difference is that its probably 0.2in wetter. 0.75 gets very close to NYC this run. Everything is shifted SW basically 40 or so miles If you take the likely over done NAM group out, it's likely very close to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 temps look like the nam...at hr 12 (10pm) 32 degree line about lines up with 287 then sags further SE to just east of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 If the current radar gets some enhancement later and hopefully the temps finally fall, then maybe there's still a bit of hope for something. The best enhancement looks to occur tonight into tomrorrow morning. Like jm said, I'm somewhat encouraged that precip has found a way to pivot into Philly without the best enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 If you take the likely over done NAM group out, it's likely very close to the Euro. yup. We all know in here that the end result will be most similar to the euro. For the north and eastern suburbs its not too shabby. Were gonna have a nail biter in an around the city because it would only take slightly heavier precip to make this change from a slushy coating to an inch or 2, to 2-4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 33 in Laurel Hollow with light Rain and Snow mix .....34 in Colts Neck with Light Rain . The temps are right there , once the sun goes down I think the precip turns over everywhere as the heavier precip picks up . Not a lot of QPF falls before 9 , so we are not ripping through out alloted QPF The best snow is prob between 9pm and 6am The Euro is 50 miles east of NYC with its .75 QPF , A wiggle west or you get caught under a band and you easily can get 4 in the park and 6 on the Nassau Suffolk border . Last nite was a different story , the best lifting was moving away from you , for a time tonite it will be moving in your direction . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Below is what I just posted on a non-meteorology forum, just trying to help people out, as most of these folks are nowhere near as savvy as the folks on this board (well not all of them either, lol). Let's hope it works out this way... So, while I'm still skeptical of getting snow out of this system, given how it has performed so far, I will say I'm much more confident in part 2 than part 1, as per the following. All along, the NWS and most good media pros (not the Lonnie Quinns of the world who were hyping the snow, but guys like Craig Allen, Nick Gregory and Lee Goldberg) were very uncomfortable with their forecasts of 2-4/3-6" (or even 5-8" in some cases) with part 1 - they kept qualifying their forecasts by saying a lot could go wrong - and it did. So, with that as backdrop, below is what the NWS in NYC said this morning and confirmed this afternoon (and confirmed by the Euro), in which they're calling for 2-4" in NE NJ (Union/Essex/Hudson/Passaic/Bergen) and NYC and 3-6" in the Hudson Valley, CT and LI overnight - in which they have "high confidence" in their forecast. NWS in Philly is predicting similar 2-4" amounts in most of the counties that border the NWS-NYC area, i.e., Middlesex, Somerset, Morris and Sussex (although their map and forecast diverge, with 1-3" in the forecast for Middlesex/Somerset and 2-4" for those counties on the map, while Morris/Sussex do have winter weather advisories up for 2-4" of snow) and 1-2" in the counties to the west and south of those counties. Although having said that, the further south/west one goes, the further one will be from the precip and the greater likelihood of there being a bust. I could see a scenario where the real dividing line is the 287 loop (from SI around to Morristown), where inside the loop gets 2-4" and outside the loop gets less than 2". And hopefully, we'll cool down enough (and have no sun issues for most of this) to allow accumulations, not losing too much to melting. .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ALL SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LVL LOW/SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MVG SE AND ROTATING AROUND THE STRONGER OFFSHORE UPPER LOW...FORMING AN INVERTED NORLUN TROUGH. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENTS MAINLY TONIGHT THRU FRI MORNING AREA WIDE. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR NARROW BANDING WITH ISOLATED 3/4 INCH AMOUNTS. BASED ON A NORTH WIND TRAJECTORY OVER LAND...SFC TEMPS SHOULD DROP A FEW DEGS LOWER AREA WIDE TONIGHT THRU FRI MORNING CAUSING AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL RANGING FROM 2-4 INCHES ACROSS NYC METRO TO 4-6 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN CT. FOR THIS REASON...CONTINUED WITH AREA WIDE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. SNOW WILL END FROM NW TO SE FRI AFTN AS SUBSIDENCE ADVECTS SE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRI NIGHT. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/WinterDSS.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 33 in Laurel Hollow with light Rain and Snow mix .....34 in Colts Neck with Light Rain . The temps are right there , once the sun goes down I think the precip turns over everywhere as the heavier precip picks up . Not a lot of QPF falls before 9 , so we are not ripping through out alloted QPF The best snow is prob between 9pm and 6am The Euro is 50 miles east of NYC with its .75 QPF , A wiggle west or you get caught under a band and you easily can get 4 in the park and 6 on the Nassau Suffolk border . Last nite was a different story , the best lifting was moving away from you , for a time tonite it will be moving in your direction . 34 in Colts Neck? It's around 40 all around that area http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=40.43034363&lon=-74.40655518&zoom=8&pin=new%20Brunswick%2c%20NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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