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Significant Ocean Storm March 6-8 2013 Discussion Part III


earthlight

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pretty surprising

Agreed. Should we bite? I don't know yet...still thinking conservatively here but euro makes me a feel a little better. Of note on the euro it has roughly 0.1 of maybe 0.5-0.6 for NYC metro and western LI falling through 7pm. So from 7pm-7am while the suns down and BL as good as it'll get 0.4ish falls

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12z euro:

 

NYC: .33" total precip (temps 33-36 degrees)

BDR: .66" total precip (temps 32.5-34 degrees)

ISP: .52" total precip (temps 33-35 degrees)

Suffolk County is .75"+ of total precip

 

 

Because of surface temps, verbatim the euro snow is:

 

NYC area: coating to 1"

BDR: 3"-5"

ISP: 3"-4"

Suffolk: 5"-8"

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0.25 line on the euro is on a line from acy to ttn to bgm. 0.5 line goes from SI to teterboro to just east of the NY/PA line. 0.75 from isp to Stamford through eastern Ny state

Nice! I'm growing more confident in my original 4-6", RGEM scared me, but seeing the EURO actually go up, along with radar, makes me more confident.

-skisheep

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Monmouth County 2 inches

CPK 3 inches

Nassau Suffolk border 4 inches

Islip 6 inches

Hamptons on East 7 inches

Dont think temps are not goin to be a factor , just enough precip on a North Wind .

Think most surfaces get 32 -33 this evening .

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12z euro:

 

NYC: .33" total precip (temps 33-36 degrees)

BDR: .66" total precip (temps 32.5-34 degrees)

ISP: .52" total precip (temps 33-35 degrees)

Suffolk County is .75"+ of total precip

 

0.25 line on the euro is on a line from acy to ttn to bgm. 0.5 line goes from SI to teterboro to just east of the NY/PA line. 0.75 from isp to Stamford through eastern Ny state

which is it? ag3, I think you are looking at only panels 12-24 hours, since kaner's total matches up with what I've heard in new england forum, can you check? thanks

-skisheep

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The main differences on the Euro are slight but important:

 

1) It has trended a bit stronger with the block at 500 mb.  It presses down from Nova Scotia into ME a bit more by Fri morning.

2) It has trended a bit further W with the center of the ocean low and a bit SE with the intensifying vort dropping SE from the Great Lakes (due to the stronger blocking).  Bringing the 2 closer together leads to greater/earlier interaction and helps pull the Atlantic moisture further west.

3) It also trended a bit further west (further into eastern SNE) on the firehose easterly jet at 850 mb by Fri morning.

 

All these things lead to heavier precip. extending significantly further west into LI/w. CT/interior SE NY/NYC

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I'm literally just reading total accum qpf map of sv so it can be off by a couple tenths of an inch but not half. So ag3 is prob using panels 12-24 since that's overnight

Edit: got it ag3 thanks. Thing that 0.3ish for NYC would amount to a little more than a coating to an inch but probably not more than 2 unless we can get those temps below freezing a la the euro

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The main differences on the Euro are slight but important:

1) It has trended a bit stronger with the block at 500 mb. It presses down from Nova Scotia into ME a bit more by Fri morning.

2) It has trended a bit further W with the center of the ocean low and a bit SE with the intensifying vort dropping SE from the Great Lakes (due to the stronger blocking). Bringing the 2 closer together leads to greater/earlier interaction and helps pull the Atlantic moisture further west.

3) It also trended a bit further west (further into eastern SNE) on the firehose easterly jet at 850 mb by Fri morning.

All these things lead to heavier precip. extending significantly further west into LI/w. CT/interior SE NY/NYC

Hope you're right bc it wouldn't take much more precip to get some solid accums in an around the city ( ie higher rates more column cooling better sticking )

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I'm literally just reading total accum qpf map of sv so it can be off by a couple tenths of an inch but not half. So ag3 is prob using panels 12-24 since that's overnight

Edit: got it ag3 thanks. Thing that 0.3ish for NYC would amount to a little more than a coating to an inch but probably not more than 2 unless we can get those temps below freezing a la the euro

 

 

Sorry. I'll do total precip from now to end of event. Regardless of temps:

 

 

NYC: .41"

BDR: .78"

ISP: .66"

HPN: .56"

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The Euro snowfall maps I have show a range across NYC from about 2-3" in Staten Island/s. Brooklyn to 4" ne Queens/n. Bronx.  Given the urban heat island, I think that's likely overdone for the sw 2/3 of the city including Brooklyn/Queens/Manhattan/central and sw Queens and s. half of the Bronx.

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The Euro snowfall maps I have show a range across NYC from about 2-3" in Staten Island/s. Brooklyn to 4" ne Queens/n. Bronx. Given the urban heat island, I think that's likely overdone for the sw 2/3 of the city including Brooklyn/Queens/Manhattan/central and sw Queens and s. half of the Bronx.

So basically you think it's overdone for the whole city? Your explanation of where was a little confusing lol. Anyway I agree euro is a kind of just low enough on the precip to keep things mostly around or under an inch or 2 for NYC

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