sferic Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 So can SW nassau eek out 2-4 inches tonight based on the newest Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 pretty surprising Agreed. Should we bite? I don't know yet...still thinking conservatively here but euro makes me a feel a little better. Of note on the euro it has roughly 0.1 of maybe 0.5-0.6 for NYC metro and western LI falling through 7pm. So from 7pm-7am while the suns down and BL as good as it'll get 0.4ish falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 12z euro: NYC: .33" total precip (temps 33-36 degrees) BDR: .66" total precip (temps 32.5-34 degrees) ISP: .52" total precip (temps 33-35 degrees) Suffolk County is .75"+ of total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 0.25 line on the euro is on a line from acy to ttn to bgm. 0.5 line goes from SI to teterboro to just east of the NY/PA line. 0.75 from isp to Stamford through eastern Ny state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Does that get to monmouth cty? Rossi JB thinks what get to the city comes south into Mon Co . thinks its eeks out 2- 3 ,Thinks city 3- 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 12z euro: NYC: .33" total precip (temps 33-35 degrees) BDR: .66" total precip (temps 32.5-34 degrees) ISP: .52" total precip (temps 33-35 degrees) Suffolk County is .75"+ of total precip I was using sv and it shows 0.5. It's weird that its almost half that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I'm starting to like also how the radar continues to back to the SW a little into NE NJ. As models don't show any mechanism to shunt precip off to the east, snow should hopefully build in from that zone east later today (may already be starting). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 12z euro: NYC: .33" total precip (temps 33-36 degrees) BDR: .66" total precip (temps 32.5-34 degrees) ISP: .52" total precip (temps 33-35 degrees) Suffolk County is .75"+ of total precip Because of surface temps, verbatim the euro snow is: NYC area: coating to 1" BDR: 3"-5" ISP: 3"-4" Suffolk: 5"-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Ag3 was that total precip you were using?? Or just hrs 12-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 12z euro: NYC: .33" total precip (temps 33-36 degrees) BDR: .66" total precip (temps 32.5-34 degrees) ISP: .52" total precip (temps 33-35 degrees) Suffolk County is .75"+ of total precip ISP is about 1/3 of the way into Suffolk County and has barely 0.5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 0.25 line on the euro is on a line from acy to ttn to bgm. 0.5 line goes from SI to teterboro to just east of the NY/PA line. 0.75 from isp to Stamford through eastern Ny state Nice! I'm growing more confident in my original 4-6", RGEM scared me, but seeing the EURO actually go up, along with radar, makes me more confident. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Monmouth County 2 inches CPK 3 inches Nassau Suffolk border 4 inches Islip 6 inches Hamptons on East 7 inches Dont think temps are not goin to be a factor , just enough precip on a North Wind . Think most surfaces get 32 -33 this evening . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 12z euro: NYC: .33" total precip (temps 33-36 degrees) BDR: .66" total precip (temps 32.5-34 degrees) ISP: .52" total precip (temps 33-35 degrees) Suffolk County is .75"+ of total precip 0.25 line on the euro is on a line from acy to ttn to bgm. 0.5 line goes from SI to teterboro to just east of the NY/PA line. 0.75 from isp to Stamford through eastern Ny state which is it? ag3, I think you are looking at only panels 12-24 hours, since kaner's total matches up with what I've heard in new england forum, can you check? thanks -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Ag3 was that total precip you were using?? Or just hrs 12-24 Hours 12-30. Im not adding 7am to 7pm today. Since it's already 1pm and the stuff through 7pm is not from the true trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The main differences on the Euro are slight but important: 1) It has trended a bit stronger with the block at 500 mb. It presses down from Nova Scotia into ME a bit more by Fri morning. 2) It has trended a bit further W with the center of the ocean low and a bit SE with the intensifying vort dropping SE from the Great Lakes (due to the stronger blocking). Bringing the 2 closer together leads to greater/earlier interaction and helps pull the Atlantic moisture further west. 3) It also trended a bit further west (further into eastern SNE) on the firehose easterly jet at 850 mb by Fri morning. All these things lead to heavier precip. extending significantly further west into LI/w. CT/interior SE NY/NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I'm literally just reading total accum qpf map of sv so it can be off by a couple tenths of an inch but not half. So ag3 is prob using panels 12-24 since that's overnight Edit: got it ag3 thanks. Thing that 0.3ish for NYC would amount to a little more than a coating to an inch but probably not more than 2 unless we can get those temps below freezing a la the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 ISP is about 1/3 of the way into Suffolk County and has barely 0.5"?South shore , and slightly west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Sorry. I'll do total precip from now to end of event. Regardless of temps: NYC: .41" BDR: .78" ISP: .66" HPN: .56" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Because of surface temps, verbatim the euro snow is: NYC area: coating to 1" BDR: 3"-5" ISP: 3"-4" Suffolk: 5"-8" How does QPF look in Putnam county (about 15 miles due west of Danbury) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The main differences on the Euro are slight but important: 1) It has trended a bit stronger with the block at 500 mb. It presses down from Nova Scotia into ME a bit more by Fri morning. 2) It has trended a bit further W with the center of the ocean low and a bit SE with the intensifying vort dropping SE from the Great Lakes (due to the stronger blocking). Bringing the 2 closer together leads to greater/earlier interaction and helps pull the Atlantic moisture further west. 3) It also trended a bit further west (further into eastern SNE) on the firehose easterly jet at 850 mb by Fri morning. All these things lead to heavier precip. extending significantly further west into LI/w. CT/interior SE NY/NYC Hope you're right bc it wouldn't take much more precip to get some solid accums in an around the city ( ie higher rates more column cooling better sticking ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I'm literally just reading total accum qpf map of sv so it can be off by a couple tenths of an inch but not half. So ag3 is prob using panels 12-24 since that's overnight Edit: got it ag3 thanks. Thing that 0.3ish for NYC would amount to a little more than a coating to an inch but probably not more than 2 unless we can get those temps below freezing a la the euro Sorry. I'll do total precip from now to end of event. Regardless of temps: NYC: .41" BDR: .78" ISP: .66" HPN: .56" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Looking at 700-850mb analysis you can see the trough setting up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The Euro snowfall maps I have show a range across NYC from about 2-3" in Staten Island/s. Brooklyn to 4" ne Queens/n. Bronx. Given the urban heat island, I think that's likely overdone for the sw 2/3 of the city including Brooklyn/Queens/Manhattan/central and sw Queens and s. half of the Bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I mean surface temps a la the nam not euro...mistyped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Boston gets 1.61" additional precip on the euro with temps hovering right around 32 the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The Euro snowfall maps I have show a range across NYC from about 2-3" in Staten Island/s. Brooklyn to 4" ne Queens/n. Bronx. Given the urban heat island, I think that's likely overdone for the sw 2/3 of the city including Brooklyn/Queens/Manhattan/central and sw Queens and s. half of the Bronx. So basically you think it's overdone for the whole city? Your explanation of where was a little confusing lol. Anyway I agree euro is a kind of just low enough on the precip to keep things mostly around or under an inch or 2 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 So even of truncated by 50% the rich get much richer with 8 inches. Boston gets 1.61" additional precip on the euro with temps hovering right around 32 the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 So even of truncated by 50% the rich get much richer with 8 inches. The areas of CT, LI and SNE that got blasted by the blizzard are the same jackpot areas on the euro. BDR, OKX and Bos and other parts of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Sorry. I'll do total precip from now to end of event. Regardless of temps: NYC: .41" BDR: .78" ISP: .66" HPN: .56" Can you include EWR or MMU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 How does QPF look in Putnam county (about 15 miles due west of Danbury) Danbury is around .7", poughkeepsie is around .63" HPN is .6" you can use that to triangulate you're QPF, you are probably around .55" -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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