ace0927 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I've seen at least half of them produce blizzards with every single winter storm set up at some point this year. The SREF used to be a very useful tool but at this point, after having to analyze them in detail and adjust for biases of the ARW and NMM members makes them almost irrelevant. They were producing 1.5" QPF at 24 hours ahead of this system....just like the NAM. on the plus side the SREF's were only off by about 1.47" qpf at my house.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 But like I said, the GFS is above freezing for the whole event on the soundings for BDR. Gets close to freezing by 7am. It's also the warmest model, EURO is plenty cold and often better with temps. no met that I've talked to thinks temps will be an issue for this, look at southeast MA, plenty of models had them raining all day, and it's ripping there. I'm more worried about QPF, and even if it's 33 or 34 for the event, without the sun, it can still accumulate no problem. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 on the plus side the SREF's were only off by about 1.47" qpf at my house.... It's very difficult as a forecaster to toss them completely, especially when they were consistent essentially from 84 hours until 12-18 hours. So my forecast 24 hours before the event weighted the Euro and NCEP models about 70/30 respectively. And even that, trying to provide a sense of normalcy with a blend, ended up busting high by about 3 inches. So I think at this point it's safe to say that the NAM, SREF and high resolution models are making things more difficult for forecasters than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_12z/snow60.gif John, for a good laugh, am I interpreting that to be 80mm over LI which is 3 inch qpf? again, just for a good laugh that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Quit a difference between the NAM and RGEM with 700mb VVs, over us late tonight. Make a difference in qpf amounts and amount boundary level cooling we see : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Guessing the fact that the UKIE and GGEM haven't been mentioned means that they aren't good? Can someone post them or what they have to say? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 John, for a good laugh, am I interpreting that to be 80mm over LI which is 3 inch qpf? again, just for a good laugh that is. That's accumulated snowfall on the 12z high resolution NAM...so 8-12" for Long Island with a small area of 12+ on the North Shore. In fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Quit a difference between the NAM and RGEM with 700mb VVs, over us late tonight. Make a difference in qpf amounts and amount boundary level cooling we see : As always, the answer probably lies somewhere between the two, RGEM probably overreacted a bit with it's shift east, NAM is out to lunch as always. My guess is somewhere in between the two, maybe similar to the 6z RGEM, but with 40% less QPF up here, somewhere around 10-12 mm or so. NAM is about 25mm, which is insane. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Radar looking more impressive over the last hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It's crazy that only a couple hundredths of QPF have fallen over the area, given even the Euro showing over 1" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 RGEM/GFS blend looks like the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It's very difficult as a forecaster to toss them completely, especially when they were consistent essentially from 84 hours until 12-18 hours. So my forecast 24 hours before the event weighted the Euro and NCEP models about 70/30 respectively. And even that, trying to provide a sense of normalcy with a blend, ended up busting high by about 3 inches. So I think at this point it's safe to say that the NAM, SREF and high resolution models are making things more difficult for forecasters than anything else. any thoughts as to why the higher resolution models have progressively gotten worse, especially this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It's crazy that only a couple hundredths of QPF have fallen over the area, given even the Euro showing over 1" QPF. The high pressure and dry air to the north was more formidable than the models thought that it would be. Really unlucky timing with the Peak of the -AO suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 NWS still calling for 1-3" tonight and 1-2" tomorrow in Dobbs Ferry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Radar looking more impressive over the last hour or so. yet is anything reaching the ground? In the city (downtown on Broad St) there is nada falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It's been flurrying here all day but they have been small flakes. All in all none of the models really handled the coastal threat well with the nam and SREFS being atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 RGEM/GFS blend looks like the way to go. 12zrgemp24030.gif 12zgfsp24030.gif Totally a reasonable call, probably around .4" QPF here, which fits in with the EURO. Still like 2-5" tonight, and Upton agrees, they still have me at 3-6" and they updated not too long ago. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 yet is anything reaching the ground? In the city (downtown on Broad St) there is nada falling It's SN here in Stamford, has been for a while. nothing sticking though. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ALL SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LVL LOW/SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MVG SE AND ROTATING AROUND THE STRONGER OFFSHORE UPPER LOW...FORMING AN INVERTED NORLUN TROUGH. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENTS MAINLY TONIGHT THRU FRI MORNING AREA WIDE. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR NARROW BANDING WITH ISOLATED 3/4 INCH AMOUNTS. BASED ON A NORTH WIND TRAJECTORY OVER LAND...SFC TEMPS SHOULD DROP A FEW DEGS LOWER AREA WIDE TONIGHT THRU FRI MORNING CAUSING AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL RANGING FROM 2-4 INCHES ACROSS NYC METRO TO 4-6 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It's been flurrying here all day but they have been small flakes. All in all none of the models really handled the coastal threat well with the nam and SREFS being atrocious. The key was watching the difficulty that the precip sheild had advancing north yesterday into the dry air and high pressure. You could see that the models were overdone with the precip forecasts. Back in the old days, the forecasters had to often rely on observations and nowcasting since the models were much less reliable. I am not sure how anyone did a successful snowfall forecast in the 70's and 80's off the Alden Difax charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 We have a short-term model battle, with RGEM/GFS shifting north on the convergence zone/trough axis and the UKMET/HRRR shifting south. Most of the difference seems to be related not so much to how much upstream ridging there is, but instead how strong the blocking over se Canada is. Given the tenacity of the block so far and SPC mesoanalysis supporting a slightly stronger block than the GFS/RGEM suggested, I'd have to side with the slightly further south solutions. However, there is little room for error here as a 25 mile shift in the convergence zone would take the steady snow out of SW CT/most of LI. Current 700 mb analysis showing developing convergence zone from n. of Lake Ontario to LI/CT. Note the deep moisture cuts off sharply a little bit south of the convergence zone: Another good link for detailed model analysis: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdd/mddoutput/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It was ripping 30-35 dbz over MBY last night @ 33.5 to 35f and I had a coating to show for it. But those bands were not representative of what the radar showed. It was quite light in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Euro looks like about .3-.4 for the city with more north and east. 0.75 out on eastern LI and into ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Euro looks like about .3-.4 for the city with more north and east. 0.75 out on eastern LI and into ct YES!!!!!!!!!!!! Toss the RGEM and ride the EURO all the way! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Actually the euro is wetter that was just through 30. Through 36 everyone NYC north and east is 0.5+.0.75+ for basically all of ct except extreme SW part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 And also temps warm so my initial 0.3-0.4 is probably what falls as snow in NYC. Probably 2-4 verbatim. Matches well with nws forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Actually the euro is wetter that was just through 30. Through 36 everyone NYC north and east is 0.5+.0.75+ for basically all of ct except extreme SW part of the state. Does that get to monmouth cty? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Actually the euro is wetter that was just through 30. Through 36 everyone NYC north and east is 0.5+.0.75+ for basically all of ct except extreme SW part of the state. pretty surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Actually the euro is wetter that was just through 30. Through 36 everyone NYC north and east is 0.5+.0.75+ for basically all of ct except extreme SW part of the state. That's a good sign. Hopefully as jconsor said this convergence zone can dig a little further and include more in the snow. And hopefully at night we can mitigate the warm temps somewhat. Too many hopefully's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 How bout NE NJ, NEAR ewr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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