SACRUS Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 RGEM looks 0.10 - 0.25 for the areas NNJ to NYC less south and west and more northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Looking at the black and whites of the rgem, looks like the best banding is north of where the NAM has it and mostly in CT. NYC might catch the southern end of it. Waiting for the total precip maps to come out to confirm. Not encouraging. If you're west of the Sagtikos, I would expect very little and be happy if it produced more than a couple of slushy inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I agree wiith earthlite t - 1 or 2 inches is probably the best we can do. Its nice to see snow falling and the wind whipping it around. Last year it was 65 degrees and thats sounding better every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I agree wiith earthlite t - 1 or 2 inches is probably the best we can do. Its nice to see snow falling and the wind whipping it around. Last year it was 65 degrees and thats sounding better every day. Absolutely. After this fiasco of a storm I'm ready to just end this whole thing. Time for scantily-dressed female season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I agree wiith earthlite t - 1 or 2 inches is probably the best we can do. Its nice to see snow falling and the wind whipping it around. Last year it was 65 degrees and thats sounding better every day. it will be hard for us to get that mild with the AO/NAO both negative and forecast to get lower later on in the month...Temperatures will probably end up below average this month...April could start out cold also...I think this storm is not the last one this season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 At the end of the day , the one thing we all begged for this year was a NEG NAO but a neg 3- 4 SD below normal hurt us in the end . It trapped the ULL and created the confluence that allowed the end around resulting in a dual max QPF .. This this just happened to be the latitude it picked to meander East . These models just had a very complex calculation to equate I think the Euro had the shunt East first , the GFS has the dual QPF max 1st Sunday nite and the short range picked the trough out first . However I think NCEP has to realize the NAM has a real QPF output problem and should consider tweaking it a bit . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 RGEM IS AN AWFUL RUN...Thats little to no accumulations for most people, except for Suffolk County and interior CT. Total snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 RGEM IS AN AWFUL RUN...Thats little to no accumulations for most people, except for Suffolk County and interior CT. Total snow: GFS doesnt look much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Ya I think we should be expecting an inch at best from part 2. Wouldn't be surprised if nothing really materialized ESP NYC west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 GFS doesnt look much better Once the GFS figured out that this wasn't t going to be a big hit like it was showing on Monday it did fairly very well. It also nailed the rainfall amounts with the storm last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 12z GFS: NYC: .25" - Warm LGA: .25" -Warm EWR: .23"-Warm BDR: .46" -Borderline ISP: .34"-Warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Just to show you how absurd the NAM has become. Look at the 2 total snow maps from each model from the same exact run, with the same exact initialization info. 12z NAM total snow: 12z RGEM total snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Once the GFS figured out that this wasn't t going to be a big hit like it was showing on Monday it did fairly very well. It also nailed the rainfall amounts with the storm last week. The GFS got to the solution the wrong way however. It clearly suffered from feedback issues for numerous runs. Us getting shafted was the result of the ULL trending south, not too much convection. A real shame too because the boundary layer last night wasn't a problem at all unlike down around DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Once the GFS figured out that this wasn't t going to be a bit hit like it was showing on Monday it fairly very well. Agree . We all suffer from a Boxing day model fiasco hangover . Think we all chase the one last minute opportunity that the models swing back with a homerun . Even the most level headed people can get sucked into a bad solution .When local offices that are filled with some of the smartest guys around get sucked in no one should feel bad about buying this stuff . How would you like to b the person down in DC that made the call to close up yesterday . Now thats a bad day . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 This is largely a non event for most of NYC metro. If you really, really want snow to accumulate at 34 - it will not. For just about every system this entire winter, the storms have delivered about 60% of the qpf forecast. Last night was an exception in that most go squat. But good luck to all anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 On the RGEM, are temps an issue keeping snow down, or is QPF that is the issue? If it's temps, the RGEM is known for running warm, so add a few mm to it. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 On the RGEM, are temps an issue keeping snow down, or is QPF that is the issue? If it's temps, the RGEM is known for running warm, so add a few mm to it. -skisheep Both. Precip is light and the temps are above freezing. Precip type maps are rain by 9am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Agree . We all suffer from a Boxing day model fiasco hangover . Think we all chase the one last minute opportunity that the models swing back with a homerun . Even the most level headed people can get sucked into a bad solution .When local offices that are filled with some of the smartest guys around get sucked in no one should feel bad about buying this stuff . How would you like to b the person down in DC that made the call to close up yesterday . Now thats a bad day . We tend to do better in situations when the Euro locks into a more amplified early and holds serve, while the GFS stays suppressed right up until near the event. The GFS can sometimes beat the Euro precip amounts in a situation like last week when they are both in good agreement on the storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Both. Precip is light and the temps are above freezing. Precip type maps are rain by 9am. once again, we get screwed at the last second... This wasn't an event for alot of people here, but, until 12z, every single model gave me an advisory event minimum, and it's about to go byebye... Fully expect the EURO to shift east at 1. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 once again, we get screwed at the last second... This wasn't an event for alot of people here, but, until 12z, every single model gave me an advisory event minimum, and it's about to go byebye... Fully expect the EURO to shift east at 1. -skisheep Hey. We still have the great NAM and all their various companions (srefs, arw, nmm, 4km, etc.) LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Agree . We all suffer from a Boxing day model fiasco hangover . Think we all chase the one last minute opportunity that the models swing back with a homerun . Even the most level headed people can get sucked into a bad solution .When local offices that are filled with some of the smartest guys around get sucked in no one should feel bad about buying this stuff . How would you like to b the person down in DC that made the call to close up yesterday . Now thats a bad day . I thought this one really had a chance because it finally broke the back of the crazy progressive pattern we've had to put up with and the deep/rich moisture available. Instead, this storm was the absolute worst of both worlds-both developing too soon and too late. It was impressive (but warm) for DC, and is impressive again for eastern New England. The low stacked and the dynamics lessened as it approached us, and yet it developed too late due to another wave coming to interact with the low too late and re-firing it to our NE. This inverted trough looks to be the final slap in the face late tonight by being too far NE. This utter fail summarizes the winter to a T other than our huge luck on 2/8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Hey. We still have the great NAM and all their various companions (srefs, arw, nmm, 4km, etc.) LOL. LOL indeed... SREF's haven't been as crazy as the NAM, they have been holding at around .5" for the trough for a while now. I wouldn't autotoss them the same way I would the NAM. Despite the complaints on the GFS, it's still 3-5" for me, has about .4" of liquid and we should be close to 10-1. For those in the heat island, however, you are out of luck, it's sprinkles for you. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 If the crazy nam was right what would be the total qpf and max snowfall for JFK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 If the crazy nam was right what would be the total qpf and max snowfall for JFK? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_12z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 LOL indeed... SREF's haven't been as crazy as the NAM, they have been holding at around .5" for the trough for a while now. I wouldn't autotoss them the same way I would the NAM. Despite the complaints on the GFS, it's still 3-5" for me, has about .4" of liquid and we should be close to 10-1. For those in the heat island, however, you are out of luck, it's sprinkles for you. -skisheep The SREFs have become much more unstable since the upgrade which brought the ARW and NMM members. The ETA and RSM members were ancient, but it seems that the ARW and NMM additions make them almost as unstable as the NAM, despite having a mean of 12+ members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 LOL indeed... SREF's haven't been as crazy as the NAM, they have been holding at around .5" for the trough for a while now. I wouldn't autotoss them the same way I would the NAM. Despite the complaints on the GFS, it's still 3-5" for me, has about .4" of liquid and we should be close to 10-1. For those in the heat island, however, you are out of luck, it's sprinkles for you. -skisheep But like I said, the GFS is above freezing for the whole event on the soundings for BDR. Gets close to freezing by 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The SREFs have become much more unstable since the upgrade which brought the ARW and NMM members. The ETA and RSM members were ancient, but it seems that the ARW and NMM additions make them almost as unstable as the NAM, despite having a mean of 12+ members. This. Exactly. ARW and NMM members are pretty much amped up versions of the NAM and are useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I think my area of Westchester will see accumulations tonight, probably 2-4".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Anyone remember Feb 25, 1999....tonight might resemble that event a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 This. Exactly. ARW and NMM members are pretty much amped up versions of the NAM and are useless. I've seen at least half of them produce blizzards with every single winter storm set up at some point this year. The SREF used to be a very useful tool but at this point, after having to analyze them in detail and adjust for biases of the ARW and NMM members makes them almost irrelevant. They were producing 1.5" QPF at 24 hours ahead of this system....just like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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