sferic Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 GGEM has little, only .1-.25, although it's the weak outlier and is tossed, the 6z RGEM was much better, probably about .4 for JFK more NE. GFS around .5", NAM .75"(tossed), EURO is slightly less than .5", but close to the GFS. A sensible guess is probably 2-4" for JFK, 5" if everything goes right and radar likes you with the banding. To get more than that, the trough is going to have to be fairly further SW. Start time probably looks like around 10 PM for the good stuff on the NAM, although I think it might be a little earlier than that, and should go until midday tomorrow. -skisheep Can't wait though today I doubt I'll be living on this forum all day LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 .5"+ here on the SREF's, they look fine, no major changes. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Not sure the GFS can be trusted. It's VV profile at 12z (little upward motion over E CT/RI/SE MA) doesn't jive with current radar: The 6z NAM's precip totals may be out to lunch, but at least it has some -UVV (esp around 850 mb) over LI and SNE currently, closer to reality than the GFS. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=93344'>USA_VVEL_700mb_006.gif GFS_VVEL_850mb.gif Great pick up tues when u threw the sref 700 mb spagetti plots on. Good early call. Norluns lov NE. Can u see a mesoscale feature expand as far SW that the models seem to think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Great pick up tues when u threw the sref 700 mb spagetti plots on. Good early call. Norluns lov NE. Can u see a mesoscale feature expand as far SW that the models seem to think It's not like a traditional NORLUN where it's feast or famine, this is a much larger trough, and brings snow to a large area. if it was a NORLUN i'd be worried, but it's really not.. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 .5"+ here on the SREF's, they look fine, no major changes. -skisheep How do they look for the lower Hudson valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It's not like a traditional NORLUN where it's feast or famine, this is a much larger trough, and brings snow to a large area. if it was a NORLUN i'd be worried, but it's really not.. -skisheep You`re in a much better spot than most on the board , However I thnk places in Suffolk county can pick up 6 I just dont think this favors spots from the city on South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 You`re in a much better spot than most on the board , However I thnk places in Suffolk county can pick up 6 I just dont think this favors spots from the city on South I think for NYC this is a slushy 1 to maybe 2 or 3" deal, possibly little as you go west through NJ. And that's if we don't continue to see it trend toward CT, which IMO is still quite possible. It should be colder for this, but again I think we need decent rates to get it to accumulate, especially near the heat island. Out further east especially toward the Long Island snowbelt north of Rt. 25/Jericho Tpke, there could be 4"+. It's a good sign though that snow showers at least don't look to be quitting from the City east. Maybe the area of lift can stay a little further west to get more of us in on it. But this looks to be another SNE/eastern LI special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 NAM seems to be bringing more snow back this way again with the trough. Maybe 0.5" or so from the city east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I think for NYC this is a slushy 1 to maybe 2 or 3" deal, possibly little as you go west through NJ. And that's if we don't continue to see it trend toward CT, which IMO is still quite possible. It should be colder for this, but again I think we need decent rates to get it to accumulate, especially near the heat island. Out further east especially toward the Long Island snowbelt north of Rt. 25/Jericho Tpke, there could be 4"+. It's a good sign though that snow showers at least don't look to be quitting from the City east. Maybe the area of lift can stay a little further west to get more of us in on it. But this looks to be another SNE/eastern LI special. Yeh and thats what i said yesterday , I can see CPK very little to nothing but the show will throughout Mass , Eastern hudson valley accross CT and maybe getting to the Nassau Suffolk border and East . Looks like the best lifting is gona be north of us . It really hit me this morning , If from Dec 1 , I only looked at the Euro I would have gotten so much more work done and prob would have had a 75 perc chance of being right when pp asked me what was goin to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 12z NAM fantasy precip totals as all snow:NYC: .69"LGA: .74"BDR: 1.09"ISP: .96"FRG: .87"EWR: .59"POU: .84" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 12z NAM fantasy precip totals as all snow:NYC: .69" LGA: .74" BDR: 1.09" ISP: .96" FRG: .87" EWR: .59" POU: .84" How much of that actually sticks though...warm lower levels will hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 How much of that actually sticks though...warm lower levels will hurt. According to the FANTASY NAM, temps fall into the upper 20s for NYC at 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 According to the FANTASY NAM, temps fall into the upper 20s for NYC at 1am. Where is this fantasy cold air source coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The NAM model needs to be retired or get a large update to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Where is this fantasy cold air source coming from? From the NAM's fantasy dreams. Euro at 1am has 34 degrees for NYC. NAM at 1am has 31 degrees for NYC. Euro at 7am tomorrow has 32.5 degrees for NYC. NAM at 7am tomorrow has 29 degrees for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I'll be happy to see a little snow...NYC needs 1.2" to reach 20" for the season...All those trace events that were coatings are not included...20" will make the season almost mediocre...we got a coating the other night from a storm that backed in like this one is supposed to do...TWT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The NAM is just a little too far south with the heaviest echoes near the Cape. So we'll have to monitor the radar later to see how far south the heavier bands set up from CT down toward Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Of all the models, RGEM seems to have the best handle and the least flip-flopping. My expectation is that Fairfield and New Haven counties in CT and eastern and central Suffolk see 3-6" additional snow (w/ locally higher amounts), while urban NE NJ and Manhattan/Staten Island/Brooklyn are lucky to see 1". Putnam and n. Westchester county in se NY will likely also do decently - 2-4" w/ locally higher amounts. SE CT looks like it will be in a snow hole for much of the next 24 hours in between the 2 main bands - I'd expect 1-3" there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 We need to have a new rule: No more NAM model postings. When your model is worse than the NOGAPS, you've got a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 We need to have a new rule: No more NAM model postings. When your model is worse than the NOGAPS, you've got a problem. While the NAM has been really bad, seemingly every model busted on last night's part of the storm within 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Upton cut eastern LI and NYC by a decent amount, held serve for here and I actually think went up a tad. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 How much of that actually sticks though...warm lower levels will hurt. In urban areas I think it will be quite difficult, even at night if rates aren't heavy with temps at or just above freezing. There could be a large discrepancy between suburban areas and the city on this. I could honestly see it just being recorded as a trace in some areas if the heavy precip mostly stays over CT and eastern LI. Last night I had high-end light snow for a while and it didn't stick-although tonight should be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Of all the models, RGEM seems to have the best handle and the least flip-flopping. My expectation is that Fairfield and New Haven counties in CT and eastern and central Suffolk see 3-6" additional snow (w/ locally higher amounts), while urban NE NJ and Manhattan/Staten Island/Brooklyn are lucky to see 1". Putnam and n. Westchester county in se NY will likely also do decently - 2-4" w/ locally higher amounts. SE CT looks like it will be in a snow hole for much of the next 24 hours in between the 2 main bands - I'd expect 1-3" there. Quite the seasonal trend since late December with the heavier snows from LI up into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Quite the seasonal trend since late December with the heavier snows from LI up into New England. Syosset to Upton is our snow belt, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Looking at the black and whites of the rgem, looks like the best banding is north of where the NAM has it and mostly in CT. NYC might catch the southern end of it. Waiting for the total precip maps to come out to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Syosset to Upton is our snow belt, that's for sure. Under a different storm evolution, the March 2001 storm hit the similar regions the hardest with less back toward NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Looking at the black and whites of the rgem, looks like the best banding is north of where the NAM has it and mostly in CT. NYC might catch the southern end of it. Waiting for the total precip maps to come out to confirm. Similar to it's 6z run? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Looking at the black and whites of the rgem, looks like the best banding is north of where the NAM has it and mostly in CT. NYC might catch the southern end of it. Waiting for the total precip maps to come out to confirm. It may have that current heavier band better initialized near the Cape than the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 This has been one of the more remarkable storms to forecast, and a humbling one as a forecaster who has seen some pretty wild events at least for being early in a career. I think the unquestionable trend at this point is to keep the best lift closer to the coast. With the NAM and even RGEM having been a little generous with precipitation totals this entire system, slicing the top 1/3 or 1/4 off the QPF amounts is a safe idea as a forecaster. That falls more in line with the Euro. The fringes of the best lift could theoretically get to NYC. But that rate of precipitation and poor snow growth means light, non accumulating snow. My forecast will call for T-1" from Newark eastward. Over Central and Northeast Nassau, and much of interior (specifically northern) Suffolk county, the potential for 2-5" and up to 6" exists. These upper level lows and inverted troughs love to linger bands over certain areas and this could meander around for a while. Hope you all are enjoying watching and tracking the storm even if you're not getting snow out of it. And hopefully some of you are learning from it. If nothing else, meteorology is a hobby that offers a new and different challenge with each system..you can never get too comfortable and you can never stop learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It has roughly 10mm for the trough for NYC north and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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