jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Wrong assumption. he really went with an 8 inch fogure for cpk and 9 by eastern LI That's insane. The NAM is clearly overdone again and it's just as likely that the main snow area just absorbs this incoming wave and maybe allows for more expansion west and south into the rest of New England but no further. The trend NE that these usually have is my primary concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 At this point it is hard to believe 1" will even be measured within NYC (CPK,LGA,JFK) ..let alone more. But somewhere over high terrain in S NY will get hammered from this IMO... oh what a storm, fascinating how difficult it was for the models. We are a long ways from perfect computer predictions/modeling, still need that human logic and experience to digest raw data into an accurate forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I have been a snow enthusiat for over 30 years. seen over performers and HUGE busts circa 2001 but I have NEVER seen a Norlun work out for NYC so Ill sit here & consider it a miracle if we get 8 inches outta this and a big win if we get 4..more likely 2 will be the final figure. But then again we spent all day hovering between 40-42 and went to snow right away here in Kew Gardens in last hr so One thing I know is we dont know everything we think we do..mother nature will humble you just when you get arrogant That's insane. The NAM is clearly overdone again and it's just as likely that the main snow area just absorbs this incoming wave and maybe allows for more expansion west and south into the rest of New England but no further. The trend NE that these usually have is my primary concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Wrong assumption. he really went with an 8 inch fogure for cpk and 9 by eastern LI No. I assumed he was joking about taking Lonnie seriously, and about Lonnie not hyping. Which he just comnfirmed he was joking. Everyone knows Lonnie is not a met, and he does hype tremendously. The guy knows very little about the weather, but his weather producer spoon feeds him everything and has him hype. There have actually been a couple times this winter that Lonnie gave exact snowfall predictions a whole WEEK before a storm. That's how bad channel 2 weather has become. I tune in from time to time for a laugh. Lee Goldberg on channel 7 is the guy to watch, if you want to watch a good met. Nick Gregory on channel 5 is very good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I agree with you they are THE only go to guys around NYC and gregory has been doing it far longer than Lee. But lee is very down to earth. I follow him on twitter and throw a few curveballs his way and he will usually respond which is appreciated. But above all I take them seriously because they tend to be balanced in presentation and grounded in science . The guy behind the scenes for Lee is Jeff Smith and he seems promising as well No. I assumed he was joking about taking Lonnie seriously, and about Lonnie not hyping. Which he just comnfirmed he was joking. Everyone knows Lonnie is not a met, and he does hype tremendously. The guy knows very little about the weather, but his weather producer spoon feeds him everything and has him hype. There have actually been a couple times this winter that Lonnie gave exact snowfall predictions a whole WEEK before a storm. That's how bad channel 2 weather has become. I tune in from time to time for a laugh. Lee Goldberg on channel 7 is the guy to watch, if you want to watch a good met. Nick Gregory on channel 5 is very good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Euro has roughly .5" of precip with the inverted trough for NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Euro has roughly .5" of precip with the inverted trough for NYC metro I wouldn't say it's quite that much, but it's not too shabby. It looks very much like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Euro has roughly .5" of precip with the inverted trough for NYC metro .5" that sounds almost NAM'ish! What's the temps look like? How far south does that go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Base on the euro the winner with this..was not dc. And will not be nyc....but once again boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I wouldn't say it's quite that much, but it's not too shabby. It looks very much like the GFS. .5" that sounds almost NAM'ish! What's the temps look like? How far south does that go? Yeah it's probably a bit less that .5"..IDK i dont have soundings. It looks like the gfs and rgem from tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 That so bad from the euro at least we have an agreement except the whacky NAM... Expect 2-4 locally higher and nothing more or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 New nam shifts the trough into New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Yeah basically cut precip totals in half from the lower HV down to NYC/LI.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Norlun Troughs love New England , I said this back in Jan when 48 hrs out the SREF and NAM painted it accross LI , it wound up busting near Bangor in the end . I said this all day yesterday expect to see this modeled more and more North in the end , You may see 1- 2 max in the end , but the core will be closer to the latitude where the center is off , not 200 miles to its south . And Norluns DO NOT drop a ft of snow into the are the size that the NAM progged yesterday , ever . They are intense and when they finally take shape they are narrow in scope Chasing Norluns on the NAM in our area is like chasing a unicorn , and that may be an insult to unicorns . And if you want to see the NAM begining its correction look at it 6z run and look at where its the axis of heaviest snow is now oriented . EAST , WEST thru MASS . I would expect a lot of the stuff to its south in future runs to start to dwindle . In the end its more snow showery in nature with margin BLs . Really not a big deal , and maybe just some 1 to 2 s around , maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Norlun Troughs love New England , I said this back in Jan when 48 hrs out the SREF and NAM painted it accross LI , it wound up busting near Bangor in the end . I said this all day yesterday expect to see this modeled more and more North in the end , You may see 1- 2 max in the end , but the core will be closer to the latitude where the center is off , not 200 miles to its south . And Norluns DO NOT drop a ft of snow into the are the size that the NAM progged yesterday , ever . They are intense and when they finally take shape they are narrow in scope Chasing Norluns on the NAM in our area is like chasing a unicorn , and that may be an insult to unicorns . And if you want to see the NAM begining its correction look at it 6z run and look at where its the axis of heaviest snow is now oriented . EAST , WEST thru MASS . I would expect a lot of the stuff to its south in future runs to start to dwindle . In the end its more snow showery in nature with margin BLs . Really not a big deal , and maybe just some 1 to 2 s around , maybe I wish we could have found the unicorn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I agree about the tendency for inverted trough snowfall to end up further north than progged. However, as others have mentioned, this is not a classic norlun trough. Instead, we have a broad area of converging winds extending all the way from 300 mb to the sfc. Thus, while I would expect locally heavy banding, I wouldn't expect a 25-50 mi band of heavy snow with no accumulation outside it like we see in some Norlun situations (examples: Feb 25, 1990 on Long Island, and Mar 21, 1992 in sw Maine). Norlun Troughs love New England , I said this back in Jan when 48 hrs out the SREF and NAM painted it accross LI , it wound up busting near Bangor in the end . I said this all day yesterday expect to see this modeled more and more North in the end , You may see 1- 2 max in the end , but the core will be closer to the latitude where the center is off , not 200 miles to its south . And Norluns DO NOT drop a ft of snow into the are the size that the NAM progged yesterday , ever . They are intense and when they finally take shape they are narrow in scope Chasing Norluns on the NAM in our area is like chasing a unicorn , and that may be an insult to unicorns . And if you want to see the NAM begining its correction look at it 6z run and look at where its the axis of heaviest snow is now oriented . EAST , WEST thru MASS . I would expect a lot of the stuff to its south in future runs to start to dwindle . In the end its more snow showery in nature with margin BLs . Really not a big deal , and maybe just some 1 to 2 s around , maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Doesn't it look too warm even for Boston? This really is a terrible bust, ESPECIALLY for those in DC....for here because of our expectations throughout, and I'm sure up through Boston it will be mainly elevation dependent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 6z RGEM total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 6z RGEM total precip That does not look to bad... Obv more NE of the city and into the Hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 That does not look to bad... Obv more NE of the city and into the Hudson valley if* thats correct a 30-40 mile shift west would make a hugh diff for some of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 if* thats correct a 30-40 mile shift west would make a hugh diff for some of us def... that would bring close to 30mm into the area if it did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The heaviest snow looks to be focused to our north tonight into tomorrow where the best vvel's set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 This looks to be a another jackpot for sw ct. Bdr should do very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 6Z NAM has a similar VV profile for that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 This looks to be a another jackpot for sw ct. Bdr should do very well Yeah, although I think I'm going to do well, the fairfield trio should do much better. Thinking 4-6" here, although if the RGEM is right it's more like 6-10". -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Not sure the GFS can be trusted. It's VV profile at 12z (little upward motion over E CT/RI/SE MA) doesn't jive with current radar: The 6z NAM's precip totals may be out to lunch, but at least it has some -UVV (esp around 850 mb) over LI and SNE currently, closer to reality than the GFS. The heaviest snow looks to be focused to our north tonight into tomorrow where the best vvel's set up. 130307115643825740000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Not sure the GFS can be trusted. It's VV profile at 12z (little upward motion over E CT/RI/SE MA) doesn't jive with current radar: The 6z NAM's precip totals may be out to lunch, but at least it has some -UVV (esp around 850 mb) over LI and SNE currently, closer to reality than the GFS. USA_VVEL_700mb_006.gif GFS_VVEL_850mb.gif We'll see what the 12z guidance comes up with, but the 6z NAM was similar to the GFS in focusing the heaviest amounts in the same general area near the exit region of the 700 mb jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 We'll see what the 12z guidance comes up with, but the 6z NAM was similar to the GFS in focusing the heaviest amounts in the same general area near the exit region of the 700 mb jet. vv.gif NAM_221_2013030706_F24_WSPD_700_MB.png Perhaps we could generated good PVA further south, with 500mb vort sliding to our SW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 What is the off the table QPF from the NAM and snow potential for KJFK as well as start and end times for tonight's event? Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 What is the off the table QPF and snow potential for KJFK as well as start and end times for tonight's event? Thanks!! GGEM has little, only .1-.25, although it's the weak outlier and is tossed, the 6z RGEM was much better, probably about .4 for JFK more NE. GFS around .5", NAM .75"(tossed), EURO is slightly less than .5", but close to the GFS. A sensible guess is probably 2-4" for JFK, 5" if everything goes right and radar likes you with the banding. To get more than that, the trough is going to have to be fairly further SW. Start time probably looks like around 10 PM for the good stuff on the NAM, although I think it might be a little earlier than that, and should go until midday tomorrow. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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