WeatherX Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Yeah it's more of a back door warm front setup, as DC folks learned today the hard way. We can coin it "stretch warm front, with missing saturation and sub-freezing elements".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 A consensus of the GFS, RGEM, Ukie, and Euro yields around 2-4" for the NYC area, with a little more to the east, and decently more as you head northeast. There really is no point in using the NAM at this point...but I guess you can use the mesoscale models to say that there is the potential for more. But I wouldn't actually weight them in a forecast at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 rgem 36h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 He didn't look at hours 36-48 where NYC and NNJ get 5-8mm. OK, found it hard to believe NYC got nothing. When you all say more NE, how much more NE are you talking about? I'm about 35 miles NE of the city, would I make it into the bigger totals on RGEM/UKIE? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Upton's 10:09 PM take, very similar to earlier maps. Storm Total Snow Forecast Unless your leaning toward the NAM this map is pretty much spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I'm kinda surprised that so many people are on here tonight. This was probably one of the worst outcomes in AW or WW board history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Rgem: Total snow tonight: Total snow from the trough: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Rgem: Total snow tonight: Total snow from the trough: Total snow combined: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Rgem: Total snow tonight: Total snow from the trough: So nothing tonight and 3-6" tomorrow. I'll take it, still think I see an inch tonight though, radar is knocking at my doorstep. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 OK, found it hard to believe NYC got nothing. When you all say more NE, how much more NE are you talking about? I'm about 35 miles NE of the city, would I make it into the bigger totals on RGEM/UKIE? -skisheep If you are in Stamford you are definitely in better shape than the immediate metro area and have a shot of seeing decent snow. btw no one has mentioned this but boundary layer temps are going to be a problem for NYC despite what the snowmaps are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Rgem: Total snow tonight: Total snow from the trough: Significant shift NE....not liking it one bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Significant shift NE....not liking it one bit Then turn on CBS news Local and ull smile their guy just said EIGHT INCHES in NYC proper tomorrow night. Im stunned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Ik we aren't supposed to put out tv met totals, but Lonnie Quinn had 9in for central LI and 6 for NYC total for storm, 8 eastern Li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I'm kinda surprised that so many people are on here tonight. This was probably one of the worst outcomes in AW or WW board history. It was dreadful, the models were dreadful, the forecasts were awful, I can't compare this to March 2001 because this was never going to be a 1-2'+ monster, but as far as the models go and the short term forecasts, it was atrocious. This is why the public laughs at meteorologists and says things like they are always wrong, they have no idea what they're talking about, and why they brush off warnings that should've been followed. The technology needs to step up, we should be further along than this. The funding needs to pick or millions to billions of dollars will be lost for a misleading forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Then turn on CBS news Local and ull smile their guy just said EIGHT INCHES in NYC proper tomorrow night. Im stunned! Lonnie Quinn isn't one to hype, I'm surprised he went so high. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The modeling was terrible. However, by this afternoon, I got harassed after I called bust. As a educated meteorologist, one does not have to "sit and watch." Sometimes the evidence is right in front of you. The writing was on the wall all day with this bust. Plain and simple. People are already preparing themselves for bust #2 tomorrow night. Here's a hint...NYC will be lucky to land 1-3 in. which the inverted trough. It was dreadful, the models were dreadful, the forecasts were awful, I can't compare this to March 2001 because this was never going to be a 1-2'+ monster, but as far as the models go and the short term forecasts, it was atrocious.This is why the public laughs at meteorologists and says things like they are always wrong, they have no idea what they're talking about, and why they brush off warnings that should've been followed.The technology needs to step up, we should be further along than this. The funding needs to pick or millions to billions of dollars will be lost for a misleading forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Lonnie Quinn isn't one to hype, I'm surprised he went so high. -skisheep Did you forget to use an emoticon? LQ might be the worst ever - not a met and you can tell he's clueless by his little misstatements, which betray his lack of knowledge. And he had NYC metro area in a 6-12" swath last night, if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 ggem looks less enthused for nj/nyc with the trough.. 00z NYC SREF: 0.50 NAM: 1.25 + GFS: 0.25 - 0.25 RGEM: 0.25 - 0.50 UKMET: 0.25 - 0.50 GGEM: 0.10 - 0.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 ggem looks less enthused for nj/nyc with the trough.. 00z NYC SREF: 0.50 NAM: 1.25 + GFS: 0.25 - 0.25 RGEM: 0.25 - 0.50 UKMET: 0.25 - 0.50 GGEM: 0.10 - 0.25 Its almost comical to see how much wetter the NAM is to all other guidance available. Looks like the consensus is 2-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 ggem looks less enthused for nj/nyc with the trough.. 00z NYC SREF: 0.50 NAM: 1.25 + GFS: 0.25 - 0.25 RGEM: 0.25 - 0.50 UKMET: 0.25 - 0.50 GGEM: 0.10 - 0.25 Have a good feeling those will continue to drop. These things always setup further to the NE, the low is too far away for it to setup over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 ggem looks less enthused for nj/nyc with the trough.. 00z NYC SREF: 0.50 NAM: 1.25 + GFS: 0.25 - 0.25 RGEM: 0.25 - 0.50 UKMET: 0.25 - 0.50 GGEM: 0.10 - 0.25 GFS is .37" for NYC RGEM is .30" to .40" SREFS are .60" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 NAM needs to be upgraded or completely trashed...its an embarrassment to the United States Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 ggem looks less enthused for nj/nyc with the trough.. 00z NYC SREF: 0.50 NAM: 1.25 + GFS: 0.25 - 0.25 RGEM: 0.25 - 0.50 UKMET: 0.25 - 0.50 GGEM: 0.10 - 0.25 GGEM's that bad? Oy... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 NAM needs to be upgraded or completely trashed...its an embarrassment to the United States Its really only useful now for convection season. Its complete loss of thermal profile superiority in the winter this season (from whatever upgrade it got) has made it a bargain basement model now for winter weather forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Did you forget to use an emoticon? LQ might be the worst ever - not a met and you can tell he's clueless by his little misstatements, which betray his lack of knowledge. And he had NYC metro area in a 6-12" swath last night, if I recall correctly. I assumed he was joking with that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I'm kinda surprised that so many people are on here tonight. This was probably one of the worst outcomes in AW or WW board history. We are die hard optimists. Today was disappointing but tomorrow will be better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 GGEM's that bad? Oy... -skisheep Have you looked out outside yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I assumed he was joking with that post. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Have you looked out outside yet? Just did and it's snowing, light snow. I was referring to it being bad for the trough, at only .1-.25, it's the weak outlier, consensus seems to be around .4" -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Wrong assumption. he really went with an 8 inch fogure for cpk and 9 by eastern LI I assumed he was joking with that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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