WintersGrasp Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Hey....as it is.....NAM for tmrw night/fri would be about eh....5-10" I believe ? 5" NYC 10" somewhere like high point NJ.....all we can do is hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Through 33 0.75 with inverted trough for NYC and north alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Given basically every run the last 24-36 hours, i don't see how anyone could take the NAM seriously for this storm at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 North New Jersey is absolutely crushed at hour 33. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 what was bxengine saying? LOL...what is obvious to some the other get fooled time and again... and next week when the NAM shows a storm but the euro doesnt, rinse wash repeat (the euro will be dismissed)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Hr 36 heavy snow for whole area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 VVs are nuts @ 33hrs, I may have to head from NW VA to SE NY, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Don't know what the NAM is smoking, but I want some! Over 1.25" here through 33, almost all from the trough. This would be legit SN+, and the good news is that we know that theoretically, it can still happen despite the eastern shift with tonights stuff(which is now close to nonexistant) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 DSnow --- is there any support even close? So hard to take anything the NAM spits out seriously after this debacle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 NAM is more than double the qpf of any other guidance for thu night-fri AM. (sound familiar) Well with the coastal the nam had the precip amounts fairly close it was just off by 50 miles with the bands - also the 4k was more accurate last night by keeping the bands off the cost, so lets see what it says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Given basically every run the last 24-36 hours, i don't see how anyone could take the NAM seriously for this storm at this point. I'm not, it's on autotoss mode until something else supports it's insane numbers. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I think its actually a good sign it still shows the inverted trough in the same position even with the correction east.. Not so sure I would dismiss it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 VVs are nuts @ 33hrs, I may have to head from NW VA to SE NY, lol... I'd save the gas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Are you serious???? How can you even follow this or care about it. Did you see how this changed for what's happening now? Just give up! Maybe sit out the next few plays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 By 36 as allsnow said heavy snow for a lot of people nyc west and north. Huge hit with the inverted trough. 1.0 qpf in the city with part 2 through 36 and probably another 0.25 or so to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 VVs are nuts @ 33hrs, I may have to head from NW VA to SE NY, lol... Verbatim on nam don't even go that far. Mmu will do. Nam is 12+ for NYC. Too bad it's the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It would be a remarkable turn of events if half of this solution were to verify. The public would not be fond of weathermen busting high on wed/thu and low on thu/fri. For the weather enthusiasts it would be quite the redemption. Onto another long night of model analysis. I didnt catch the SREF for thu into fri? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 DSnow --- is there any support even close? So hard to take anything the NAM spits out seriously after this debacle... The 18z RGEM was nice...though not like the NAM of course. The SREFs also had 0.5" + for much of the area for just the trough, as well. The NAM is clearly crazy, but that does not mean that we won't get a moderate snowfall event tomorrow night (high end advisory). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 If this prints out 15 inches of snow in spots I will not be shocked , gotta be one of it pre 24 hr psycho runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It would be a remarkable turn of events if half of this solution were to verify. The public would not be fond of weathermen busting high on wed/thu and low on thu/fri. For the weather enthusiasts it would be quite the redemption. Onto another long night of model analysis. I didnt catch the SREF for thu into fri? Srefs are nice for part 2. Maybe 0.6ish for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Through 39 as temps warm there has been over and inch of liquid for the inverted trough alone. Maybe around 1.1-1.15. Ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The 18z RGEM was nice...though not like the NAM of course. The SREFs also had 0.5" + for much of the area for just the trough, as well. The NAM is clearly crazy, but that does not mean that we won't get a moderate snowfall event tomorrow night (high end advisory). .5 is one thing, but there will be spots with 15-18"+ here. The high qpf bias is just out of control with the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I know we're all bashing the nam but didn't almost every other model have at least some accumulating snow for tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I would just cut the NAM in half ( which is always a good idea ) and then you`ll have you`re consensus . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Guys, take whatever it prints out and divide by about 4 or 5 and you will get the correct snow totals with this feature. Just look at the ECMWF if you really want to know what is going to happen. The NAM needs to be completely tossed by NCEP. The model is horrid, and well, pretty much worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 If this were to verify....or half of this....it would be the biggest surprise storm I've ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 the nam is on some serious riods.... however the trough looks legit most models have around .5-.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The 18z RGEM was nice...though not like the NAM of course. The SREFs also had 0.5" + for much of the area for just the trough, as well. The NAM is clearly crazy, but that does not mean that we won't get a moderate snowfall event tomorrow night (high end advisory). 18z rgem Looks line between 7 and 10mm for NE-NJ, perhaps 12 MM for nyc. (0.25 - 0.60) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 .5 is one thing, but there will be spots with 15-18"+ here. The high qpf bias is just out of control with the NAM... Its insane how much snow it wants to give us up here... Through 36hrs 1.50"+ and still going strong smh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 1.5 line reaches past NYC into ne nj. Over 1.25 of that from the inverted trough. 1/3 of that we'd all be happy with and would been 3-5 inches or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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