96blizz Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I'm not being negative, but this storm has really changed my view of things. It's embarrassing they OUR short range model spits out 20" of snow here for multiple runs where the ground is drying out in the wind tonight. From now on, follow the Euro and hope we can catch up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I think it would be a great sign if the NAM did not go east with the inverted trough, despite being well east with the coastal low. It's going to be a hit with the inverted trough. Moderate precipitation into NYC at hour 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Hr 24 heavy snow NYC and Hudson valley Light to mod snow ne nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY712 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...EXPECT 994 HPA LOW OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TO SLOWLY MOVE ENETONIGHT...AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...AS IT MOVES WITH CUTOFF LOWABOVE IT. OPERATIONAL SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SEEM TO BE UNDERESTIMATING STRENGTH OF RIDGING TO THE N/NE OF THE LOW AND HENCEARE TOO FAST IN MOVING PRECIPITATION INTO THE TRI-STATE.ONLY MODELS WHICH SEEM TO HAVE ANY GRASP ON CURRENT SITUATION ARETHE HRRR AND RUC - AND THIS UPDATE REFLECTS THIS. BASICALLY HAVESCALED BACK POPS - ESPECIALLY OVER NW ZONES THIS EVENING ANDREDUCED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS. THE LATTER WEER ONLY A FEW TENTHS OFAN INCH SO SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE INACCUMULATIONS. BASICALLY EXPECT BULK OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOREMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT - EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ALONGTHE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.LAV GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES ANDDEWPOINTS - SO UPDATED REFLECTS LATEST THERE THIS EVENING. I knew this would happen. I didn't want to admit it, but this event is busting worse than the March 2001 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I dunno guys....this inverted trough scenario looks to be setting up WAY east as well, though we might be on the western edge and get something nice for a little while though I hope I think not.... comes in at 21 hours and looks good at 24 hours (heavy snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I knew this would happen. I didn't want to admit it, but this event is busting worse than the March 2001 event. We got close to a foot up here in that event, but it took a while LOL... Just surprised that with a 993 low east of Delmarva, precip is not overspreading the area more aggressively. Precip shield is very compact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Hmm....this is a real wake up call to me. The tools that people use to make forecasts for events which will affect MILLIONS of people are off by hundreds of miles. Not hundreds of miles with a temperature swing of a few degrees....but with the difference between a blizzard and nothing! Isn't this a serious problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Trough is a hit on the NAM, although I'm tossing it regardless, it's performance with this storm has put it on autotoss until after the event. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I think not.... comes in at 21 hours and looks good at 24 hours (mod snow) It's the NAM trust me it will screw you, it was so horrible down here today the NOGAPS looks like the Euro compared to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I knew this would happen. I didn't want to admit it, but this event is busting worse than the March 2001 event. There was never a consensus for massive snows here so I don't see how this is worse than 2001 at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Trough is a hit on the NAM, although I'm tossing it regardless, it's performance with this storm has put it on autotoss until after the event. -skisheep the thing with the trough which is great is that it is supported by the other models... the trough should produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Hr 27 mod snow from scotch plains north. Light snow down to belmar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I think not.... comes in at 21 hours and looks good at 24 hours (heavy snow) Are you serious???? How can you even follow this or care about it. Did you see how this changed for what's happening now? Just give up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I'm not being negative, but this storm has really changed my view of things. It's embarrassing they OUR short range model spits out 20" of snow here for multiple runs where the ground is drying out in the wind tonight. From now on, follow the Euro and hope we can catch up... To be fair, the EURO also had .35 for tonight, which is also going to bust. Not as bad as the NAM, but it wasn't great either, nothing was. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 There was never a consensus for massive snows here so I don't see how this is worse than 2001 at all. It's worse than 2001 in terms of Model/Storm Performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 heavy snow continues at hr 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Hr 27 mod snow from scotch plains north. Light snow down to belmar Very heavy snow in the Hudson Valley with .5" QPF in one frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Are you serious???? How can you even follow this or care about it. Did you see how this changed for what's happening now? Just give up! How about you look at the model, it has heavy snow here tomorrow night. The two features really are not dependant on eachother. Not saying it's what's going to happen, but you are wrong verbatim. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I knew this would happen. I didn't want to admit it, but this event is busting worse than the March 2001 event. Just to remind you of how bad 3/5/2001's bust was-models and mets predicted FEET of snow for I-95 from basically south of DC to Boston for at least a day or two, and models looked something like what you would expect to see in the calling of the Rapture. Then slowly we saw the usual pattern of the upper low becoming more progressive and developing later and later until it became too late for south of here. Then we had a day of boring rain/snow mix that didn't accumulate (the day before, NYC was predicted to see a foot of snow on that day and every school/business was closed for non-accumulating snow). Then, when the surface low finally did develop, it slammed Suffolk east of the Sagtikos and gave barely anything west of there, and then rammed north into New England. Eventually, that low occluded and gave wraparound snow that barely accumulated down to around Philly. Basically, a forecast for 2 feet went to 2" or less for tens of millions of people within a day. So no, this bust isn't as bad as that one was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Hr 30 mod snow down to Driscoll bridge. Light snow to ocean county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Problem is though that even if this were to verify....the mod/heavy snow stays in extreme NNJ/NY state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Inverted trough looks to be nearly as impressive as previous runs. Can't tell for sure since it isn't done yet. But by 30 things look great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 the thing with the trough which is great is that it is supported by the other models... the trough should produce I do think we see production with the trough, probably not to the extent of the NAM, but 3-5" is probably a reasonable call. Upton's map probably will verify or close, but from a totally different system. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 NAM is more than double the qpf of any other guidance for thu night-fri AM. (sound familiar) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 30 hours it does come south into NYC though with a nice band...I was wrong...only problem is that so will be the NAM obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 hour 30 it continues... heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Hr 30 heavy snow northern half of nj. Mod snow down to belmar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 ImageUploadedByTapatalk1362622135.536581.jpg Problem is though that even if this were to verify....the mod/heavy snow stays in extreme NNJ/NY state For all we know the nam is completely wrong. But if we are to assume its right for model interpretation purposes, it's gets the best vv's in our area and a lot of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 This does not necessarily have to continue shifting to the east, since the NAM already correctly adjusted its surface low track and precipitation further to the east...plus the two events are not 100% correlated, anyway. That being said, it's hard not to be skeptical. But I'm not 100% totally dismissing anything. Tomorrow night has the potential to be lots of fun, but the NAM will probably be too gung-ho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Hah, nam printing out 1-1.25" qpf just from trough Tom night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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