nzucker Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It's going to be really tough to generate much, particularly just inland-it looks like the main shield may have enough north movement to scrape through Long Island. We'll see. All around, a big disappointment at least with the first part with the main low. I don't know, a brick wall of precip looks to be aimed at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Precip IS spreading NW and developing over central NJ....rain, yes, but temperatures starting to fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It's going to begin soon, those echos SE of Montauk are going to encompass ALL of LI, NYC, e NJ and Westchester,. The western most fringe seems to be over the NJ/PA border having moved east during the past few hours but this might stop right there. But give it by 10PM, we'll all be seeing WHITE. I think we are all going to be happpy soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 One thing I will say, the wind has been very impressive the past few hours. Several gusts around 40 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Radar continues to look favorable for the NYC metro as Atlantic inflow continues and echoes overspread the area from the east... im gonna go ahead and disagree...everything is getting squashed south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 im gonna go ahead and disagree...everything is getting squashed south and east No, the echoes are clearly moving northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I don't know, a brick wall of precip looks to be aimed at us. i think its the brick wall thats gonna keep it away from most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The new 00z RAP shows precip spreading NW into NYC/NJ for literally about 3 hours and then pulling back out. Not sure if it will accumulate then....doubt more than a coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 One thing I will say, the wind has been very impressive the past few hours. Several gusts around 40 mph yes...walking home from the train i noted how damn windy it was....there was very little precip falling but it was impossible to tell what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 No, the echoes are clearly moving northwest. They've been clearly moving northwest all day I will say though, it's finally snowing, albeit just a little bit, but the last 12 hours have been a cocktease. It isn't so much of a northwest movement, as it has been a slow formation of the inverted trough we've been waiting for on the tail-end of this shortwave. Precip is filling in where subsidence has ruled all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The new 00z RAP shows precip spreading NW into NYC/NJ for literally about 3 hours and then pulling back out. Not sure if it will accumulate then....doubt more than a coating by looking at the current radar you can see this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 im gonna go ahead and disagree...everything is getting squashed south and east It might be enough movement to clear our area at least for a few hours. Fingers crossed, looks like some activity coming into Fire Island/Robert Moses now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The new 00z RAP shows precip spreading NW into NYC/NJ for literally about 3 hours and then pulling back out. Not sure if it will accumulate then....doubt more than a coating There probably won't be much accumulation if it's just a quick shot that heads out. It needs to come down decently for a while to really accumulate and be all snow I think. Coating/dusting sounds right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 by looking at the current radar you can see this you can see that the returns are only going to be over us for 3 hours? Thats impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 by looking at the current radar you can see this you can see that the returns are only going to be over us for 3 hours? Thats impressive. Yep ! U pretty much can. The brunt of the precip is offshore. The band that is pushing NW is not the main area of precip and will shut down/pull away as the main area of precip and the low pulls away...unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 New NAM running now and of course has corrected itself with all precip from the coastal offshore now at 6 hours, not pounding NNJ like the last run. Lets see how the 2nd part pans out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 The differences in the precipitation distribution between the 18z NAM at hour 12 and the 00z NAM at hour 6 are up there in the top 5 hilariously bad model performances I've ever seen for multiple reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The differences in the precipitation distribution between the 18z NAM at hour 12 and the 00z NAM at hour 6 are up there in the top 5 hilariously bad model performances I've ever seen for multiple reasons. How so ? It's only a 250+ mile adjustment with the precip field...nothing big as of late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The differences in the precipitation distribution between the 18z NAM at hour 12 and the 00z NAM at hour 6 are up there in the top 5 hilariously bad model performances I've ever seen for multiple reasons.Bodes well for the trough. Seems this storm begs for a major review/change for this model. It's really been embarrassing this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 ....dreading what I think I know is coming....the adjustment of the "second part"....250+ miles east as well!!....hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 America is the greatest technological nation in the world, and we have the NAM as our short range model? This sort of scenario was what the NAM was built for, and it totally, epically, failed... Guessing the trough will be still there, and that probably will dissapear tomorrow at 12z or so. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The differences in the precipitation distribution between the 18z NAM at hour 12 and the 00z NAM at hour 6 are up there in the top 5 hilariously bad model performances I've ever seen for multiple reasons. It has reach the point this winter where it's not even usable. It really needs to be look out by ncep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 ....dreading what I think I know is coming....the adjustment of the "second part"....250+ miles east as well!!....hmmmm That likely has nothing to do with tonight. Tomorrow night's event has to do with another vort max diving SE and ultimately merging into the main low. My main concern is that the focus of that snow will be further east toward the main low, but we'll see. Tonight just isn't happening, and the NAM, once again fell flat on its face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I think it would be a great sign if the NAM did not go east with the inverted trough, despite being well east with the coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY712 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...EXPECT 994 HPA LOW OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TO SLOWLY MOVE ENETONIGHT...AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...AS IT MOVES WITH CUTOFF LOWABOVE IT. OPERATIONAL SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SEEM TO BE UNDERESTIMATING STRENGTH OF RIDGING TO THE N/NE OF THE LOW AND HENCEARE TOO FAST IN MOVING PRECIPITATION INTO THE TRI-STATE.ONLY MODELS WHICH SEEM TO HAVE ANY GRASP ON CURRENT SITUATION ARETHE HRRR AND RUC - AND THIS UPDATE REFLECTS THIS. BASICALLY HAVESCALED BACK POPS - ESPECIALLY OVER NW ZONES THIS EVENING ANDREDUCED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS. THE LATTER WEER ONLY A FEW TENTHS OFAN INCH SO SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE INACCUMULATIONS. BASICALLY EXPECT BULK OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOREMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT - EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ALONGTHE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.LAV GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES ANDDEWPOINTS - SO UPDATED REFLECTS LATEST THERE THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY712 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...EXPECT 994 HPA LOW OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TO SLOWLY MOVE ENETONIGHT...AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...AS IT MOVES WITH CUTOFF LOWABOVE IT. OPERATIONAL SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SEEM TO BE UNDERESTIMATING STRENGTH OF RIDGING TO THE N/NE OF THE LOW AND HENCEARE TOO FAST IN MOVING PRECIPITATION INTO THE TRI-STATE.ONLY MODELS WHICH SEEM TO HAVE ANY GRASP ON CURRENT SITUATION ARETHE HRRR AND RUC - AND THIS UPDATE REFLECTS THIS. BASICALLY HAVESCALED BACK POPS - ESPECIALLY OVER NW ZONES THIS EVENING ANDREDUCED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS. THE LATTER WEER ONLY A FEW TENTHS OFAN INCH SO SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE INACCUMULATIONS. BASICALLY EXPECT BULK OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOREMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT - EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ALONGTHE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.LAV GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES ANDDEWPOINTS - SO UPDATED REFLECTS LATEST THERE THIS EVENING. So they basically are tossing everything... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I dunno guys....this inverted trough scenario looks to be setting up WAY east as well, though we might be on the western edge and get something nice for a little while though I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 So they basically are tossing everything... -skisheep Sounds about right. Every single model at least gave us something appreciable and even the SE models don't look to have been far enough SE. The precip that looks to reach us looks miniscule at best and what does likely won't accumulate because rates will be poor. Our hope is tomorrow PM's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Lol so the only models used are HRRR and RUC? Oh geez It's that bad... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I dunno guys....this inverted trough scenario looks to be setting up WAY east as well The rich(SNE), are going to get richer, we are going to be begging on the streets per this NAM run. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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