RevWarReenactor Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The other concern is that temps aren't even starting to budge yet. Still in the 39 to 42 range mostly. Some places in central jersey have climbed a few degrees in the past hour This was the problem in the DC area, there just isn't any cold air to really work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 But temps are very warm. It will be very difficult for any snow to stick. They were supposed to be warm, and come down when the wind changed as a result of the precip. Accuweather hour by hour was 37 now and it's 38, not exactly a major shift. Upton has me getting down to 31 as of 430 update, and they didn't have it all snow here until 10, yet they still see 1-3" by morning. see no major changes from 18z that make me think otherwise won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This was the problem in the DC area, there just isn't any cold air to really work with. There never is really. The fact that its March means we can't even make due with a marginal air mass as we could in dec, jan, or feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 They were supposed to be warm, and come down when the wind changed as a result of the precip. Accuweather hour by hour was 37 now and it's 38, not exactly a major shift. Upton has me getting down to 31 as of 430 update, and they didn't have it all snow here until 10, yet they still see 1-3" by morning. see no major changes from 18z that make me think otherwise won't happen. I really think we were counting on the CCB to pull down enough cold air, to make up for the very borderline airmass. It's pretty clear now that we're not gonna be in that very heavy precip tonight. We really needed the dynamics. The ground is wet and warm. Light to moderate snow won't cut it, if temps get down to 33 or 34. Areas to the north where it's colder, I could see a little accumulation. But I don't see any accumulation where I am in north-central Jersey, or for NYC. Tomorrow night might be a different story. Hopefully we can pick up a couple inches then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I really think we were counting on the CCB to pull down enough cold air, to make up for the very borderline airmass. It's pretty clear now that we're not gonna be in that very heavy precip tonight. We really needed the dynamics. The ground is wet and warm. Light to moderate snow won't cut it, if temps get down to 33 or 34. Areas to the north where it's colder, I could see a little accumulation. But I don't see any accumulation where I am in north-central Jersey, or for NYC. Tomorrow night might be a different story. Hopefully we can pick up a couple inches then. 24 hours ago yes, but by 4 when the afternoon forecasts came out it was clear that the CCB wasn't happening. NYC might have issues, but I think the northern suburbs are still good for 1-3". Who knows, maybe it busts, but Upton dosen't think so, and I'm riding them all the way, they are the pros... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This storm pretty much screwed everybody to be honest, D.C, New York, and Boston all look to be screwed with the coastal. The inverted trough is interesting though, but where it sets up is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 HPC seems pretty bullish with the 8"+ probabilities for the inverted trough tomorrow. Close to 50% for NYC. 30-40% IMBY in SMQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 This storm pretty much screwed everybody to be honest, D.C, New York, and Boston all look to be screwed with the coastal. The inverted trough is interesting though, but where it sets up is key. Why Boston? Euro and rgem have nearly 2" of precip there. And a lot of it tomorrow night when it's cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 It's becoming increasingly evident that we will not see much tonight. Whatever snow we see rests on tomorrow nights inv trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 on that weathetap image above, the center looks to be moving s or se.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 on that weathetap image above, the center looks to be moving s or se.... Would that set up the inverted trough further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Would that set up the inverted trough further south? depends on where it goes--it must start a ENE or NE motion at somepoint....Norluns are always tricky-that will be a nowcast event for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 When are the next major runs due? There is too much uncertainty to say anything either way, something will give soon enough, I think this forum will populate greatly later on tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Yup, go back and read the blizzard obs thread, people were calling bust before it started. I see no reason to waver from upton's 1-3" for tonight and more tomorrow... -skisheep I think Upton is 1-3 inches too high with tonight's forecast. Otherwise it's spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 this is by no means a flame or trollish post or meaning to start a fight...but is it always like this with storms in the NYC forums? (Used to post in midwest before)... it just seems everyone writes storms off before they even start.... Always yes, but its never been this bad. Out of control this entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Either the precipation is expanding northward as per radar or the center of circulation is retrograding s or sse. Strange, alot of suprises to come. This hasn't started yet and won't end until Friday....I can feel it. I think alot of people will be quite surprised. People can't say anything is over because it hasn't started for our area..YET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The NAVGEM has a snow signal tomorrow night with the phase also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Always yes, but its never been this bad. Out of control this entire winter. I think we we are looking good out here Ed...hopefully...precip should move in over the next 40 minutes or so and temps and dp's have been steadily falling as winds strengthen out of the NE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The reason why the inverted is being aimed here is because of the occluding LP. While it's stalling, it's branching outward and extending into SNE and then SE NY/NE NJ/LI. Could very well happen.....or not. It all depends on the occluding and stalling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I was wrong, and I apologize. Upton just cut totals to less than an inch overnight, however, new snowmap is virtually identical to the old one, they just push it all back a few hours... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I was wrong, and I apologize. Upton just cut totals to less than an inch overnight, however, new snowmap is virtually identical to the old one, they just push it all back a few hours... -skisheep Thats identical in queens on west but on LI markedly cut back from central to eastern LI they were mapped at 9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 That map says 1pm Wednesday to 4pm Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 HPC seems pretty bullish with the 8"+ probabilities for the inverted trough tomorrow. Close to 50% for NYC. 30-40% IMBY in SMQ. u do realize that they are entirely automated and weighted heavily on the srefs, dont get them confused with the real hpc forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 While we wait, any mets want to weigh in on how they would forecast the trough --- "gun to head".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 The NAM at 500 hPa actually wasn't very far off at all with last nights 00z run. It just comes down to the handling of the small nuances within such a complicated situation, something as simple as the positioning of the vorticity within the upper level low as it spins off the coast. The NAM seemed to suffer from being too expansive with the upper level low as a whole..the height field on last nights 00z and 06z run was expanding on the northwest side too much by 50-75 miles. The 12 and 18z runs were more compressed. Just a slight adjustment south and east with this feature came to burn everybody with the CCB especially over NJ/NYC...the Euro had this pinned down the last few runs. I'm not sure what to make of this potential northern stream feature but I would venture to guess we won't know details until this firehose develops into Southern New England and the storm continues eastward a bit. That's when the vorticity begins to slide southeast through the Lakes and underneath the upper level low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Radar continues to look favorable for the NYC metro as Atlantic inflow continues and echoes overspread the area from the east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The NAM at 500 hPa actually wasn't very far off at all with last nights 00z run. It just comes down to the handling of the small nuances within such a complicated situation, something as simple as the positioning of the vorticity within the upper level low as it spins off the coast. The NAM seemed to suffer from being too expansive with the upper level low as a whole..the height field on last nights 00z and 06z run was expanding on the northwest side too much by 50-75 miles. The 12 and 18z runs were more compressed. Just a slight adjustment south and east with this feature came to burn everybody with the CCB especially over NJ/NYC...the Euro had this pinned down the last few runs. I'm not sure what to make of this potential northern stream feature but I would venture to guess we won't know details until this firehose develops into Southern New England and the storm continues eastward a bit. That's when the vorticity begins to slide southeast through the Lakes and underneath the upper level low. Thank you. My profession isn't meteorology, and it likely never will be, but one can never stop learning and, for those that take advantage, you truly make that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I think we we are looking good out here Ed...hopefully...precip should move in over the next 40 minutes or so and temps and dp's have been steadily falling as winds strengthen out of the NE... The radar is starting to take on a bit of a NAM-like appearance, albeit a bit south and/or delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Radar continues to look favorable for the NYC metro as Atlantic inflow continues and echoes overspread the area from the east... It's going to be really tough to generate much, particularly just inland-it looks like the main shield may have enough north movement to scrape through Long Island. We'll see. All around, a big disappointment at least with the first part with the main low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The radar is starting to take on a bit of a NAM-like appearance, albeit a bit south and/or delayed. The 18z run for one hour ago was about 50 miles at least further NW with the steady snow. So yeah, the NAM failed even 6 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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