Allsnow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Light to mod snow from belmar north at hr 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 SREF mean has about 8 inches for NYC With the soundings consistently working out warmer than what had been modeled on the NAM and, to a lesser extent GFS, my guess is that the SREF mean very likely will not verify for NYC unless the 15z SREF and 18z/0z guidance does better in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hr 42 light to mod snow continues. It warms and moves out at hr 45. Looks a lot like 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Radar does now look to be consolidating somewhat south of Long Island (knock on wood). Hopefully this is what will push north and salvage something with the front end precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hr 42 light to mod snow continues. It warms and moves out at hr 45. Looks a lot like 12z euro And that's what we're banking on? Good luck with that. Euro has been very good so far so i would go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Gfs is 2-4 from sandy hook north. 4-8 just north of NYC into Hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 With the soundings consistently working out warmer than what had been modeled on the NAM and, to a lesser extent GFS, my guess is that the SREF mean very likely will not verify for NYC unless the 15z SREF and 18z/0z guidance does better in that area. Don , have you ever seen a Norlun to the magnitude that the NAM shows , area wide verify in New England . The NAM pretty much shreds most of NY STATE , CT an SNE on into CNJ . I was always under the impression they are intense but localized . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 0.25-0.5" for the initial CCB related precip on the GFS from roughly I-95 east. Less NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I actually believe we wouldn't want any front end precip, as it would be rain, and make it harder for the snow to stick later on, or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Again the rgem is probably the most realistic 3-6 somewhere in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Is it my imagination or on the radar does the center of circulation off the VA/NC coast sem to be sinking southward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I actually believe we wouldn't want any front end precip, as it would be rain, and make it harder for the snow to stick later on, or no? Heavier snow falling can easily whiten up even the most wet pavements and streets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Don , have you ever seen a Norlun to the magnitude that the NAM shows , area wide verify in New England . The NAM pretty much shreds most of NY STATE , CT an SNE on into CNJ . I was always under the impression they are intense but localized . It appears suspiciously large on the NAM. That's been the case for the last two runs. The 0z guidance and early guidance tomorrow will be interesting. By then, the model should be getting a better handle on the situation. It would be nice to salvage something ahead of what looks to be a mild weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 18z Rgem total snow for tomorrow night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Didn't the RGEM say it was going to be snowing tonight across NJ and NYC in last night's runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What is the range of liquid QPF from the model's least to maximum for JFK from now until storm's end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What is the range of liquid QPF from the model's least to maximum for JFK from now until storm's end? GFS is the driest at roughly .6" or so, NAM gets over 2", EURO is probably around .85", RGEM the same, GGEM more, SREF's 1"+, assorted meso's all 1"+ -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Is it my imagination or on the radar does the center of circulation off the VA/NC coast sem to be sinking southward? You are correct. That is why the precip has not been making any northward progress this afternoon as the center has moved south of due east off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lonnie Quinn said for Long Island just now 3-6 inches overnight tonight and 2-5 tomorrow night which gives a range of 5 to 11 inches for Long Island, plausible? I think upton's general 3-6 is much more sensible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 heavy rain for everyone you mean? Well it moved 300 miles SE in one run so something to keep me interested - Setup looks pretty decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 We should know in a few hours if the sim radar depiction by the NAM is anything close to what will actually happen. Radar returns look decent off the coast. The question is whether those returns can make it to the coast like the NAM sim radar insists it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatever Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm even doubting light to moderate precip will even build back tonight over most of NJ. If it doesn't, then Euro wins again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The high pressure and dry air to the north looks like it's a little stronger than what the 18z 4km had for this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The other concern is that temps aren't even starting to budge yet. Still in the 39 to 42 range mostly. Some places in central jersey have climbed a few degrees in the past hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The high pressure and dry air to the north looks like it's a little stronger than what the 18z 4km had for this hour. rad5.gif northeast.gif Thanks for that comparison bluewave. Precip is definitely slightly south of where the NAM had it. Wouldn't be surprised if precip just barely missed NYC with the coastal system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 its never over till its over but its rather dark humor that the thread is entiteled OCEAN storm....for the fish indeed, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The other concern is that temps aren't even starting to budge yet. Still in the 39 to 42 range mostly. Some places in central jersey have climbed a few degrees in the past hour Perhaps a bigger concern is that a Norlun is 4 cast based on a more northern projection of the SLP. well, Id LOVE to know how now withat SLP clearly diving south and east how that Norlun will materialize up here. In short, if you change the numerical equation radically, as here, how exactly do we, rationally, expect the previous result? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Rain building in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Not sure what the major concern is, it seems on track for a general 1-3" outside the heat island tonight, which is what the models have been calling for. Even the GFS had probably around .35" tonight, very similar to the EURO. These bands off LI are supposed to move north a bit, and while it may be a bit south of modeled, it's not so huge that it should be a problem. Upton went 1-3" tonight area wide at 430, and no new data has come in since then to make me worry that that's not on track. some precip starting to make it into NYC, radar looks OK. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Not sure what the major concern is, it seems on track for a general 1-3" outside the heat island tonight, which is what the models have been calling for. Even the GFS had probably around .35" tonight, very similar to the EURO. These bands off LI are supposed to move north a bit, and while it may be a bit south of modeled, it's not so huge that it should be a problem. Upton went 1-3" tonight area wide at 430, and no new data has come in since then to make me worry that that's not on track. some precip starting to make it into NYC, radar looks OK. -skisheep But temps are very warm. It will be very difficult for any snow to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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