Significant Ocean Storm March 6-8 2013 Discussion Part III

[bluewave]

It will be interesting to see the NAM and RGEM on their 12z runs tomorrow concerning

the snowfall potential with the phase tomorrow night. It's still too early for amounts and 

exact locations, but that is a very impressive jet exit region setting up which would enhance

snowfall potential as the strong vort over the lakes moves offshore and phases with the 

strong closed low.

 

[Ericjcrash]

All the models show the trough. The precip amounts is still up in the air.

Going to need heavy precip. Best shot was a CCB, thats not happening so I'm 90% sure I won't see an inch.

[MJO812]

Going to need heavy precip. Best shot was a CCB, thats not happening so I'm 90% sure I won't see an inch.

 

Models are cold for tomorrow night.

[MJO812]

SREF mean has about 8 inches for NYC

[MJO812]

But why should we? Along the coastal plain, it has been a complete bust. Why would one think that NAM, Euro, etc. will be any more correct for up here? IMO, if we get 1-2 in. south of elevation, that would be a miracle. Tomorrow night's "event" will likely be another inch.

 

Because none of the models have a clue. They are all over the place. We go through this with every storm. You don't call bust before a storm even starts.

[kingwill42]

Why would anyone think he knows more than half the people on this forum? Hes a former soap star for christ's sake

 

 

I understand that but he is still putting out a forecast for the Public. I don't think he is just making up random numbers. BTW- I usually listen to Lee Goldberg out of all the local News.

[SnoSki14]

Either we will look foolish or intelligent by Friday depending how things play out.

[KEITH L.I]

But why should we? Along the coastal plain, it has been a complete bust. Why would one think that NAM, Euro, etc. will be any more correct for up here? IMO, if we get 1-2 in. south of elevation, that would be a miracle. Tomorrow night's "event" will likely be another inch.

because nobody expected any snow today..it's supposed to snow tonight.If there is nothing on the ground tomorrow morning..you will be right,but we will see

[ag3]

Lol, the NAM is obviously wrong, at least for part one, precip is definitely further S than it had progged. Good luck with that weenie

trough tomorrow as well.

 

 

It looks pretty spot on to the current radar, including the heavy blob south off Jersey:

 

18z NAM for 4:00pm:

 

 

 

Current radar:

 

 

 

18z NAM current precip type:

 

[Superstorm93]

If I get even HALF of these ridiculous amounts, I'll quit my job.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_18z/snow60.gif

 

 

[Storm At Sea]

I'm calling bust for the coastal plain south of us...DC/BWI etc. My point is this: given the circumstances, one can look at the general pattern, synoptics, obs, etc., and make a half reasonable call for the next 12 hrs. We don't always have to rely on the models to make a forecast.

 

 

You can't say it's a bust if it was never was progged to start by now. No model was showing it starting by now, not even the NAM. So anyone saying it's already a bust is absolutely foolish.

[MJO812]

Upton

 

A STRONG SHORTWAVE THEN ARRIVES FROM THE NW DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTERACTS WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP A LIKELIHOOD OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE THROUGH THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW. BY FRIDAY MORNING...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF MOSTLY 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY OVER CT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NW ZONES STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT AND GOING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF MOST OF THE SNOWFALL FOR THIS EVENT.

[earthlight]

This is the last warning for everybody who is not posting analysis or constructive discussion about the storm:

You will be have your posting abilities taken away until the storm is over.

Im not going to sit here and delete posts all day. Thank you.

[KEITH L.I]

I'm calling bust for the coastal plain south of us...DC/BWI etc. My point is this: given the circumstances, one can look at the general pattern, synoptics, obs, etc., and make a half reasonable call for the next 12 hrs. We don't always have to rely on the models to make a forecast.

Heres' the deal..on this board 80 percent of the post were calling a bust during the Feb blizzard..turned out what the models were saying was true..people here even called Sandy a bust during the storm..you have to let things play out..it always happens on this board,surprised you being a Met are joining the crowd

[MJO812]

18z RGEM likes the trough

 

[pazzo83]

Heres' the deal..on this board 80 percent of the post were calling a bust during the Feb blizzard..turned out what the models were saying was true..people here even called Sandy a bust during the storm..you have to let things play out..it always happens on this board,surprised you being a Met are joining the crowd

Bingo.   In the Feb storm people around NYC/LI were saying bust at 8pm that night just as the heavy snow was getting underway.  We all got 10-20"+.

 

HOWEVER, the major bust down south is concerning to me.  I think we'll get precip, but we might struggle with the RN/SN line here along I-95 and points S/E.

[Kaner587]

rgem is snowy for part 2. areas in nw ct and eastern ny up to around 15mm with more to come 36-42. Nyc is about 10mm through 36 additional

[Stormlover74]

My updated zone forecast, whatever I get tonight will probably melt by tomorrow afternoon and will have to wait and see if we get round 2

 

.TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW THIS EVENING...THEN SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...SNOW LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION.
BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS
AROUND 30. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE
OF SNOW 80 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. BREEZY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
 

[Storm At Sea]

You clearly are not reading correctly. Allow me to elaborate. The forecast for the DC proper was for heavy snow this afternoon. The snow did not materialize. All of the NWP were inaccurate (busted) for THAT city. Given this significant folly, I suspect that the NWP output will be incorrect in a similiar fashion for any further significant snow (> 3 inches total) for the NYC area.

 

Heres' the deal..on this board 80 percent of the post were calling a bust during the Feb blizzard..turned out what the models were saying was true..people here even called Sandy a bust during the storm..you have to let things play out..it always happens on this board,surprised you being a Met are joining the crowd

[Kaner587]

for all intents and purposes rgem is basically nothing for part 1. I mean maybe 5mm for nyc metro

[WE GOT HIM]

I'm calling bust for the coastal plain south of us...DC/BWI etc. My point is this: given the circumstances, one can look at the general pattern, synoptics, obs, etc., and make a half reasonable call for the next 12 hrs. We don't always have to rely on the models to make a forecast.

I may have to agree with you here storm. The confluence is shredding and halting the Northern part of the storm. If we don't get into heavy precip and with temps in the 40s there is no way we are getting accumulating snow. As for the trough those things always disappoint when the models show them and unless its heavy it will be pointless.

- Its really cool to see the confluence from the north and the storms precip form the south colliding right over us

[Kaner587]

on the b and w it looks like 15mm for part 2 on the rgem. Seems basically in line with the sref and a drier than the nam but also more realistic. Probably 4-6in verbatim for a large area

[jm1220]

It looks pretty spot on to the current radar, including the heavy blob south off Jersey:

 

18z NAM for 4:00pm:

 

 

 

Current radar:

 

 

 

18z NAM current precip type:

 

The radar to me looks to be consolidating south of where the NAM has it. We're heading toward night now and drier air is advecting in, but this could also try to dry out the northern extent of the snow. I'd really want to see a north push on this activity soon to be confident we get in on the heavier snow.

[Ericjcrash]

It looks pretty spot on to the current radar, including the heavy blob south off Jersey:

 

18z NAM for 4:00pm:

 

 

 

 

Current radar:

 

 

 

 

18z NAM current precip type:

Seems like the actual radar is quite choppy in Jersey, E Pa, overall looks less than the solid 30dbz on the sim radar. The 6 hour sim radar on the NAM also looks overdone. Anyway, glad the RGEM is enthused with the trough coming down. When was the last time an inverted trough affected such a large area around here?

[SnoSki14]

Inverted troughs can easily surprise people as a local area could receive a ton of snow compared to another, which is why it's so difficult for models to pinpoint exact amounts.

[Stormlover74]

You clearly are not reading correctly. Allow me to elaborate. The forecast for the DC proper was for heavy snow this afternoon. The snow did not materialize. All of the NWP were inaccurate (busted) for THAT city. Given this significant folly, I suspect that the NWP output will be incorrect in a similiar fashion for any further significant snow (> 3 inches total) for the NYC area.

They very well may but I don't see how one has to do with the other. DC busted with the December 2000 storm (4 to 8" and got nothing)and the January 2005 storm and we got blasted up here. Almost every storm busts high or low somewhere, especially near the cutoff areas.

[WE GOT HIM]

The radar to me looks to be consolidating south of where the NAM has it. We're heading toward night now and drier air is advecting in, but this could also try to dry out the northern extent of the snow. I'd really want to see a north push on this activity soon to be confident we get in on the heavier snow.

Our last hope with the costal may be the band that is trying to form south of LI

- HRRR does have to band rotating in

[WE GOT HIM]

They very well may but I don't see how one has to do with the other. DC busted with the December 2000 storm (4 to 8" and got nothing)and the January 2005 storm and we got blasted up here. Almost every storm busts high or low somewhere, especially near the cutoff areas.

Climatology was never on DCs side with this storm

[Allsnow]

Hr 36 snow just north of the city. Vv's look pretty good on the gfs

[PB GFI]

http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2011/01/exactly-what-is-a-norlun-trough-and-how-do-you-forecast-weather-associated-with-it.html     Old Matt Noyes piece .