Snow_Miser Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The NAM verbatim is a MECS with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Nam is similiar to the ARW. SREF has about .50. That seems more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 There's no way the radar's going to look like that in 4 hours when it's ragged and showery as it is now south of us. Sorry, but that looks over done. As does the inv trough. The NAM's been over done all through this storm, why wouldn't it be now? could not agree more-plus there's dry air being pulled in from the northeast....precip is going to have a slow battle moving north and especially northwest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 15z SREF for NYC QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Until the hi res models lose this ,no one should throw it out. Anth , I dont think you just toss it , but keep in mind the NAM just came off some really big runs in the last few days showing a pretty significant round 1 today , and at 12z today the day of , it backed off . Its not about only the hi res seeing it , the NCEP short dated models prob run with the same capacity and close enough algos ( im sure there are diff initial points ) but they are all updated only a certian amounts of times a day .so im not sure to what extent the NCEP short data differ . RGEM I cant speak too , The Euro is updating all day , all nite . The Euro is somewhat has hi res capacity , just because it has a long term feature its pretty good at picking up meso scale features a day away . AND IT DOESNT , see it to this extent . Its really a better tool if it doesnt have it , you need be careful. 2 things to remember Norluns love New England , they dont like us . Secondly they usually arent as robust in size as the NAM is progging , its usually very narrow and very intense Just M O . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Nam is similiar to the ARW. SREF has about .50. That seems more likely. for tonight, another .5 with the trough, storm total is close to 1" it seems that besides the EURO we have consensus for around .5" liquid tonight from the coastal, however, I can't be 100% onboard without the EURO... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Nam is similiar to the ARW. SREF has about .50. That seems more likely. What's the Gfs and euro have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What's the Gfs and euro have? Nothing but both of them are the driest out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The NAM verbatim is a MECS with this event. So over the past day NAM has forecasted 30" for NYC. Bring back the ETA. NAM is just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 could not agree more-plus there's dry air being pulled in from the northeast....precip is going to have a slow battle moving north and especially northwest... I fell for that with the 2/6/10 storm. The simulated radar looked great, especially out in PA, making it look like the heavier stuff would get into our area. And of course we know it didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Upton cut back on their precip amounts from tonight into Friday. They have 4-6 inches areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 While you all drool over the sh*t peddling NAM... Nothing like a nice cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It will be something if the NAM verifies. Oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The NAM verbatim is a MECS with this event. So over the past day NAM has forecasted 30" for NYC. Bring back the ETA. NAM is just awful. Not a great performance for either the GFS or NAM here. NAM was way too juicy and looks to continue being that way, and the GFS continuously suffered from feedback problems and cut precip back too much as a result. But honestly, looking at the radar, the GFS seems closer to being right. It doesn't look that great over southern NJ right now and the crazy radar the NAM shows for tonight looks way overboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 While you all drool over the sh*t peddling NAM... Nothing like a nice cold rain grearth 2013-03-06 15-46-04-69.png Is she moving SE? If so is the low progged to turn to the north again at some point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Upton cut back on their precip amounts from tonight into Friday. They have 4-6 inches areawide. So they dont believe there own model 24 hours away ? ... That should make you feel confident . Just be careful without the Euro . There arent too many smart guys out of the regional offices not buying that solution , thats all im saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 While you all drool over the sh*t peddling NAM... Nothing like a nice cold rain grearth 2013-03-06 15-46-04-69.png That's just horrible ugh. What could have been. At least high tide has gone and past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 So they dont believe there own model 24 hours away ? ... That should make you feel confident . Just be careful without the Euro . There arent too many smart guys out of the regional offices not buying that solution , thats all im saying Euro has 3-6 inches until Friday so they might be going with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wildwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 So they dont believe there own model 24 hours away ? ... That should make you feel confident . Just be careful without the Euro . There arent too many smart guys out of the regional offices not buying that solution , thats all im saying Not really for NW of the city... they raised totals for there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 unless this thing starts zipping north and east in the next 5 minutes, the NAM's solution is already in serious do-do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'll just let it play out I guess, the winds were impressive though. I'm going to say we won't get any accumulating snow from this. It's best to aim low and not get your hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The only interesting thing I can find right now, are the wind gusts. (I'm actually quite surprised by the lack of snow pretty much everywhere from this system today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 unless this thing starts zipping north and east in the next 5 minutes, the NAM's solution is already in serious do-do... Most of the snow comes from a shortwave that dives into the area starting around 30hrs from now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Torching GGEM was spot on with it's precip type. Remember when it was showing nothing by a spinning rain band? yea...like I've been saying...the NAM is not worth paper it's printed on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Most of the snow comes from a shortwave that dives into the area starting around 30hrs from now... agree, but the NAM had a fair amount of precip tonight too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 anyone have the latest gust reports. I have to imagine we have gusted to at least 45 mph in the last coulple of hours between Newark airport and JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I wouldn't bet on getting much from the inverted trough, those usually don't work out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I guess we should just sit back and watch it unfold. Well down here in W. Monmouth snow/sleet mixing in now. Weatherground redar shows it well. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=DIX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=0 Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Sorry but I had to post it as alot of Folks were saying this is over at the same time he comes on with that. Why would anyone think he knows more than half the people on this forum? Hes a former soap star for christ's sake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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