Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 at 42 1.75 line touching extreme se queens and south shore of LI out to eastern LI. Moderate snow continues city west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The NAM might be a good model to track for the 2nd part of this storm since its more of a mesoscale feature. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Not when the other short term models are similiar Again --- hours 30-42 are NOT short term for the NAM or any other meso model in my opinion. Don't get sucked in to something crazy!! Be happy it shows up but temper your expectations!!! Again, the NAM is STILL shifting and lowering expectations with every single model run for about 12 hours forward!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 by 45 with the precip shutting off and temps warming...1.75 is through the city into northern nj, se ny. This is about 1.0-1.25 just from the inverted trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Fingers crossed for the NAM solution... Anybody else worried about the Jersey Shore with the storm just sitting there like it is? Looks like AC is already taking a beating with that wind and surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I will say this the Nam has Shown over 1.0 QPF in some way or some form now for like 8 straight runs now. It has been consistent if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The NAM might be a good model to track for the 2nd part of this storm since its more of a mesoscale feature. Just sayin'. ya that is where it would be very good. But I cant trust a model showing an inch of qpf for an inverted trough. I'd love for that to happen but I wouldn't be surprised if its much more tame in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 We could see some brief 1 inch per hour rates after midnight in a few lucky spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Most of the snow on the NAM is coming from the 2nd shortwave that kind of screeches through the area as it goes off to phase with the weakened ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 by 45 with the precip shutting off and temps warming...1.75 is through the city into northern nj, se ny. This is about 1.0-1.25 just from the inverted trough Which is why you probably have to take it with a grain of salt. Don't get your hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 hi-res shows the inverted trough impressively as well. To hr 34 looks like a lot of additional precip coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm sorry, this is literally the most bizarre storm I have watched since joining the forum... haven't seen the models so horrible from so close-in besides the bust in January 08 (I think that was the bust? when NYC had a WSW and it got sprinkles/flurries). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 We could see some brief 1 inch per hour rates after midnight in a few lucky spots. rad12.gif wow- all HiRes models have the storm looking tropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hour 27 on the Hi-Res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I would feel alot better about the Nam if this was for tonight and not tomorrow night/fri morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's 27 hours out. You can't just throw this out. Why not since the GFS and Euro dont have those amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Why not since the GFS and Euro dont have those amounts? Until the hi res models lose this ,no one should throw it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 office of binghamton has issued a WWA for ORANGE county NW with 4-7 inches of snow... i guess they are putting some weight on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Nam has been consistent with at least 1 + inch of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Rich Hoffman from Ch 61 has 5-10 for NYC and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Why not since the GFS and Euro dont have those amounts? Both models have the feature just not the qpf the NAM and the other hi-res models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Rich Hoffman from Ch 61 has 5-10 for NYC and LI HOLY COW... did he specify for tomorrow night? Also what about NW of the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 office of binghamton has issued a WWA for ORANGE county NW with 4-7 inches of snow... i guess they are putting some weight on the NAM That's Sullivan county not Orange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Rich Hoffman from Ch 61 has 5-10 for NYC and LI i dont trust any channel higher than 5.... or lower than 5 for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 office of binghamton has issued a WWA for ORANGE county NW with 4-7 inches of snow... i guess they are putting some weight on the NAM We are in Uptons area not BGM.. You mean Sullivan county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Why not since the GFS and Euro dont have those amounts? If the Nam is COMPLETELY off I don't think ANYONE will ever listen to what it's selling again. For it to show major moisture for so many runs in a row and to be off the NWS should just do away with the model. If ever the Nam was going to be right this would be a great time for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 HOLY COW... did he specify for tomorrow night? Also what about NW of the city? Throughout the event i dont trust any channel higher than 5.... or lower than 5 for that matter. He's a great met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 That area of enhanced lift that the NAM is picking up on from that northern stream feature is going to be hard for the models to pin down. I certainly wouldn't be trusting the NAM in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hour 6 on the Hi-Res Nam There's no way the radar's going to look like that in 4 hours when it's ragged and showery as it is now south of us. Sorry, but that looks over done. As does the inv trough. The NAM's been over done all through this storm, why wouldn't it be now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Rich Hoffman from Ch 61 has 5-10 for NYC and LI There is a thread for this, this is the 5th time I've had to remind you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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