MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 How can the short term models be so far off so close to an event? Right now it's just a waiting game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 AEvery model except the Goofus and Euro are more wetter for the trough. Troughs are hard brother . They are usually now forecasts , so when you see em modeled you should treat suspect . its not like we dont want it to happen , but the model thats giving you hope over the next 24 hrs , just pulled the football away from you this morning . The NAM is you`re LUCY ......jk brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Troughs are hard brother . They are usually now forecasts , so when you see em modeled you should treat suspect . its not like we dont want it to happen , but the model thats giving you hope over the next 24 hrs , just pulled the football away from you this morning . The NAM is you`re LUCY ......jk brother The next few models runs will be interesting to see where the trough sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 So my fanatsy here on Long Island in Nassau County for 36 hours of snow from tonight to friday morning with 12 to 18 inches is just that, a fantasy I guess, maybe 1-2 inches of mush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 ECM is bone dry, and has the storm practically over already for NNJ. what to do...throw it out ? Hey most in here say Ride Euro.. Even though most models show 1 + QPF for same areas where Euro is Dry. Earthlight just posted that one Short Range Model that usually does very well inside 24 hrs looked very good. I think it is time to start nowcasting and see if what is happening outside is matching up to models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Funny how we have a strengthening coastal system yet out chance comes way after it passes lol. Not saying that's wrong it's just rare. I would think some areas may meet blizzard conditions ? All U do is complain and always point out worst case Scenario as far what storm can and cant do.For example I always notice from you minutes after a model shows 6 inches lets say you will post so it should be 2 inches if things work out. That type of posting seems like Trolling. If it is raining 12 hours from now than yeah than start complaining. This storm obviously is not for those without patience as there is a chance 2nd half or Trough tomorrow night could be main event so it could be a day and a half of whining and complaining around here. King willy..:my post here was about how rare it is that we could get the accumulation FOLLOWING the coastal and not from it. So exactly what you said I should look forward to is exactly what I JUST SAID. So admit that you took what I said wrong, and be more positive Wilbur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 for reference i just looked at the 6hr forecast from 1pm to 7pm on the 12z euro. For the eastern delmarva, its has 0.1-0.25in of precip. With those yellows and oranges on radar right now consistently streaming in, this is likely going to be way off. I have no idea if this has any implications for us but the euro is way off with precip right now in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Its best to go with high-res models honestly IMO .They all seem to have a better consensus than the mid to long range models. Maybe someone can correct me if they think otherwise. It's really bad when you have so many different solutions like this the day of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatever Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 something for the record, models seem horrible when trying to forecast strong vertically stacked lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Agree , the Jump was always a possiblity . the confluence is enough that its erroded the precips Northward movement , the best Dynamics tonite with the SLP should slip by to our South and East overnite and then you open the firehouse into New England as it turns NE ... So you may see the 20 inch amounts in the MTNS OF VA and then a foot of Snow west of Boston , and very little here in the end . I dont buy the NAM period . No one should ever buy the NAM, for any reason. The writing was sort of on the wall with the dual-QPF max structure being depicted 2 days ago and more recently with the SE trend on the ULL, but hopefully we can luck out tonight with some of the CCB. Wish this storm could just GTFO already if all it's going to do is kick up the surf and cause flooding which no one needs, and snows enough to whiten the grass and that's it. The second part is just too unstable and too unreliable to be confident in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 ECM is bone dry, and has the storm practically over already for NNJ. what to do...throw it out ? Hey most in here say Ride Euro.. Even though most models show 1 + QPF for same areas where Euro is Dry. Earthlight just posted that one Short Range Model that usually does very well inside 24 hrs looked very good. I think it is time to start nowcasting and see if what is happening outside is matching up to models. There is a thread pinned for now casting and observations. If you do not want to discuss model output please post only in that thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 No one should ever buy the NAM, for any reason. The writing was sort of on the wall with the dual-QPF max structure being depicted 2 days ago and more recently with the SE trend on the ULL, but hopefully we can luck out tonight with some of the CCB. Wish this storm could just GTFO already if all it's going to do is kick up the surf and cause flooding which no one needs, and snows enough to whiten the grass and that's it. The second part is just too unstable and too unreliable to be confident in. Yeh 4 ft surge -long duration , prob thru multiple tide cycles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yikes, according to NE forum the EURO is only .25" for KNYC, and nothing tonight. I'm inclined to toss it, since every other model(NAM/GFS/GGEM/RGEM/SREFS/Assorted Meso's), have close to .5"+ here tonight, but I hate going against the EURO... It is having major issues down south though it looks like, so who knows. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 There is a thread pinned for now casting and observations. If you do not want to discuss model output please post only in that thread. Don't tell me what to do when all you post is nonsense and bring nothing positive to the Table. Keep your trolling elsewhere. Like I said I have been following your act all winter long so it is not just with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 alright, people aren't buying the NAM...aren't buying the Euro...aren't buying the GooFS....so what are we left with. At this point, looking out the window and see what happens is a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 As much as people want to believe it.....the EURO isn't the GOD model. There will be times when it's wrong. Is now one of those times? Possibly, judging by the way it initialized I would think it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Looks like a non event for the area snow wise. All this storm is really going to do is delay the rebuilding of the shore. Hopefully some 60's next week and a extra hour of daylight. For tomorrow night I would not forcast anymore then snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 euro is close to 0.7 for the city not sure where you're getting 0.25 from skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 There is a thread pinned for now casting and observations. If you do not want to discuss model output please post only in that thread. Don't tell me what to do when all you post is nonsense and bring nothing positive to the Table. Keep your trolling elsewhere. Like I said I have been following your act all winter long so it is not just with this storm. Ok I'm not going to get in an argument with a kid here. If all you have to do is follow me and my posts, you need a hobby such as meteorology? Mods if u can move our silly posts to the banter, it'd be appreciated. Will here has been a member a couple of weeks and posted nothing but banter. Review my last posts if necessary. I've said nothing whining, etc. many have but I actually haven't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 ARW for the trough. More falls after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yikes, according to NE forum the EURO is only .25" for KNYC, and nothing tonight. I'm inclined to toss it, since every other model(NAM/GFS/GGEM/RGEM/SREFS/Assorted Meso's), have close to .5"+ here tonight, but I hate going against the EURO... It is having major issues down south though it looks like, so who knows. -skisheep Incorrect. The euro is .32" through tomorrow at 7am. And another .30"-.40" after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Work in progress as I try and recover the maps that were on eastern, a pc thats crashed and a laptop that was lost at LAX airport. Post somereal-time images, loops, etc if you got 'em Surface; Radars" Visible: Water Vapor Temps: Pressure Maps upper Air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Incorrect. The euro is .32" through tomorrow at 7am. And another .30"-.40" after. My apoligies, I was going off info from New England forum, guess they are incorrect? Guessing HPN is similar maybe a bit less? That's a relief -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Congrats, DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Congrats, DT? For what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ok I'm not going to get in an argument with a kid here. If all you have to do is follow me and my posts, you need a hobby such as meteorology? Mods if u can move our silly posts to the banter, it'd be appreciated. Will here has been a member a couple of weeks and posted nothing but banter. Review my last posts if necessary. I've said nothing whining, etc. many have but I actually haven't. OK first off, I have actually been a member for a few years(different username in past ).Why do U think I mentioned how show up for very storm and than downplay everything from start to finish. Secondly I have been posting about the Models and what they are showing so its not banter when its part of the storm discussion thread. Banter would be this silly argument your having with me. FYI- I am not a kid and it's not Wilbur either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 For what? Richmond got snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GooGoo Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I have always loved the MM5 inside 24 hrs but the Stony Brook web site is always down or the model is just not run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Incorrect. The euro is .32" through tomorrow at 7am. And another .30"-.40" after. Thanks AG3 some of the numbers being given earlier in here were way off, you should be the only one allowed to give euro qpf:) Good luck down there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GEFS members are all over the place They all look to keep the heavy stuff just offshore though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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