WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 does anyone have the updated version of this, cuz in the DC area it is only off by 15" I believe this is it http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_12z/snow60.gif Wow west Milford hammered ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I believe this is it http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_12z/snow60.gif I believe this is it http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_12z/snow60.gif well it did get the DC area right on that one! But LOL to Nassau cty on that map - 12-18" across the entire county! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 So far at least a big bust in the DC-BALT corridor....and time is running out for them. Im pretty confident we will get decent QPF but temps/accums I think (outside of elevation) could be a problem here as well The snow line looks like it's gradually pressing east. The precip rates there seem lighter than modeled (shocker) and it's also noon. We at least get what we get at night, which should help to an extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 not that it matters much but the new ggem is probably the worst and most se of all models and really is a double pooper bc we miss the best inverted trough stuff too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 not that it matters much but the new ggem is probably the worst and most se of all models and really is a double pooper bc we miss the best inverted trough stuff too. why doesnt it matter much? Didnt it just get an upgrade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I believe this is it http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_12z/snow60.gif it seems it shows the correct amounts in VA and DC. It shows Nassau County, Long Island with 16 inches. Can that still happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 estimate of 12z GGEM is about 10mm city east from the coastal (similar to the GFS) and maybe another 5 of so from the inverted trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 it seems it shows the correct amounts in VA and DC. It shows Nassau County, Long Island with 16 inches. Can that still happen? about the same odds as DC getting 16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 why doesnt it matter much? Didnt it just get an upgrade? upgrade notwithstanding, I was basically suggesting its nowcast time. Plus its been waffling around. Came back much wetter for us last night now way drier. So not much confidence in it. Still think its somewhere in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The snow line looks like it's gradually pressing east. The precip rates there seem lighter than modeled (shocker) and it's also noon. We at least get what we get at night, which should help to an extent. DC is battling sun angle without a doubt...it has to come down very hard with boarderline surface temps during the day..at night it's a different story..really unlucky,but luck is a very big part of a March storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Why do we keep saying "a march storm" we even get this ptype issues in january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Why do we keep saying "a march storm" we even get this ptype issues in january This storm has never really interested me for the NYC Metro. BL issues galore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 DC is battling sun angle without a doubt...it has to come down very hard with boarderline surface temps during the day..at night it's a different story..really unlucky,but luck is a very big part of a March storm The fact that they are 200 miles further South then us doesn't help either. For us it is alllllll about the wind direction NO NORTH NO SNOW (Nyc and LI) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 well it did get the DC area right on that one! But LOL to Nassau cty on that map - 12-18" across the entire county! Isnt that 12-18 centimeters? that would be 5"-7".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Pretty impressive looking thunderstorms off of Delaware fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Why do we keep saying "a march storm" we even get this ptype issues in january If you have no cold air, you're going to have ptype issues. There's really no cold here or around us right now. The storm has to make its own cold air and that requires a perfect track and the best vertical velocities and we do not have that. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Why do we keep saying "a march storm" we even get this ptype issues in january Sun angle in march can cause major issues. In January the precip issues are not related to the sun angle as the sun angle is favorable (hence winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Isnt that 12-18 centimeters? that would be 5"-7".. no those are in tenths of inches (the top part) so 120 180 =12-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Isnt that 12-18 centimeters? that would be 5"-7".. I believe that is in inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 DC is battling sun angle without a doubt...it has to come down very hard with boarderline surface temps during the day..at night it's a different story..really unlucky,but luck is a very big part of a March storm average daytime high in DC for this date is 58 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow west Milford hammered !Actually on thatmap, eastern Sussex Ci., gets hammered. Especially Vernon which is under that yellow blob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The 12z GEFS ensemble mean is about the same as the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Upton raised the snowtotals. 5-10 inches areawide http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The snow line looks like it's gradually pressing east. The precip rates there seem lighter than modeled (shocker) and it's also noon. We at least get what we get at night, which should help to an extent. DC seems to have changed over to snow now, and a lot of people there are reporting thunder, sign of an intensifying system. That convection is exploding over the Delmarva too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I honestly wouldn't be surprised for a total bust up here with little or no snowfall even with the inverted trough. March is a screwy month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Isnt that 12-18 centimeters? that would be 5"-7".. it is clearly stated at the bottom of the map, in the key, that its a 10x1 ratio....inches x10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Upton has had that map out since this morning!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Light sprinkles getting blown around like crazy in the wind. 39/36 right now. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The 12z SPC WRF is very nice for the area, especially NW areas. Just as the CCB heads out it gets tugged back NW and then the norlun trough is in full force at hour 36. Looks very NAM like. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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