Snow_Miser Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 really? i see the NCEP crappy graphics and it looks drier...but i could be wrong It's definitely wetter on the StormVista maps. Looks like 1.25"+ through hour 60 for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Just take a look at the 00z NAM at 12 versus the 18z GFS at 18. The differences are absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 A very slight trend towards de-amplication in the height field aloft on the NAM compared to the 18z run through just 6 hours. The interaction between the arm of energy to the north over New England remains crucial and there are no terribly noticeable changes there yet. I'm starting to become convinced that the differences in the models wit the development of the CCB and track of the mesoscale surface low are almost 100% sourced back to convection and the difficulties that the GFS/UK/GGEM are having are multiplying post 6-12 hours when they first start. I can't say I am very confident in the NAM to be the one to best handle the dynamic release that is occurring in this situation, but if it holds close to its 18z solution I might be inclined to blend more of a NAM/RGEM piece into a forecast package than I typically would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Honestly, some serious coup or dismantling is going to happen. The NAM and GFS are light years apart early in their runs!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Honestly, through 14 is it MORE amped? This is something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 The NAM is slightly farther south and less impressive with the best forcing as it moves northward through 15 hours. It might be trending towards a compromise between the global models, which slide the 500 hPa vort to the southeast around this time frame as opposed to its earlier runs which did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 hr 15 at 0Z vs hr 21 at 18Z is basically identical at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The NAM is slightly farther south and less impressive with the best forcing as it moves northward through 15 hours. It might be trending towards a compromise between the global models, which slide the 500 hPa vort to the southeast around this time frame as opposed to its earlier runs which did not. Could it be that the NAM is just a little bit slower overall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Anyone else having a problem with NCEP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The differences with the NAM are incredibly small. This is going to look similar to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Moderate precipitation now moving into Central New Jersey at hour 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 This very slight deamplification trend early on opens the door for the 500 hPa shortwave and closed low to slip every so slightly southeast as it heads off the coast. The vertical velocities and best RH fields are responding. I would venture to guess this run will end up southeast of the 18z run by a slight to noticeable amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This very slight deamplification trend early on opens the door for the 500 hPa shortwave and closed low to slip every so slightly southeast as it heads off the coast. The vertical velocities and best RH fields are responding. I would venture to guess this run will end up southeast of the 18z run by a slight to noticeable amount. Definitely noticeable. Especially for folks NW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 At hour 21, John is correct. This is somewhat SE of the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Its extremely suspect placing that L way out there like that. More convective feedback issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 At hour 21, John is correct. This is somewhat SE of the 18z run.hes an excellent met- I'm not shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM is still going to be a pretty nice hit for most interests in this forum: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Supposedly according to people at other forums, the low isn't correctly modeled, as it is stronger and more precip. Could this be right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Its extremely suspect placing that L way out there like that. More convective feedback issues? I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This very slight deamplification trend early on opens the door for the 500 hPa shortwave and closed low to slip every so slightly southeast as it heads off the coast. The vertical velocities and best RH fields are responding. I would venture to guess this run will end up southeast of the 18z run by a slight to noticeable amount. right on and its noticeable....and the QPF shield is less impressive than 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 At 24, NAM still has good activity on radar back up into Orange/Sussex/Pike, PA, so it's not that far SE. And still nothing like the GFS in terms of appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hmm that precipitation field looks every so slightly farther north at 24 hrs though. Am I the only one seeing this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This is still a really nice run. CCB into E NJ into NYC at hour 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM is still going to be a pretty nice hit for most interests in this forum: that clearly shows the two QPF maxes where we get screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Gets pulled back at 24 cfi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 A definite slight towards the global models handling of the 500 hPa upper level low and vorticity. You can see the surface and dynamics responding as the NAM catches on to it. But it still tries to back the CCB into NYC between 27 and 30 hours. Looks close to the RGEM from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This is still a really nice run. CCB into E NJ into NYC at hour 27. This probably a very realistic solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 00z NAM is definitely further SE so far. I despise this system regardless if it actually snows or not. There's a certain point when all the diverging solutions finally get to you and it doesn't even become enjoyable to follow. Especially 24 hours out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hr 29 deform gets into nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 that clearly shows the two QPF maxes where we get screwed 30+ dbz reflectivities at hour 27 are not what I would call a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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