IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm seeing a problem. Unless, we get tremendous intensity from this storm, and right now, best vertical velocities stay to our south and east, we have no cold air available. Throw the models aside a moment. How will the northerly winds help us if BTV is 44 dp 28? ALB is 40 dp 29. That is not cold air and mix that with the ocean influence that we are beginning with, I think we're hardpressed to get below 35 or 36 degrees around here and for snow accumulations (this is NOT going to be all snow), tremendous intensity is essential and I just don't see it. This is a duration event, and I'm becoming bearish on amounts due to the lack of cold air. WX/PT Yeah but for us interior folks it's plenty cold. Already snowing in Western Passaic and Sussex. For Long Island and the city it's very marginal until the norlun takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm confused. Eastern Long Island has a WSW out until 1pm Friday. I have a WWA until only 6pm Thursday. What would be their thinking that they receive 6" more snowfall than here in NE NJ and continue the snow for 19 hours more, although the models actually show the heavier precipitation drying out from east to west with the second part? If I had to guess, they only issued a WWA for round one, and they will wait to decide what to do for round 2. I wouldn't be shocked to see them convert some of the advisories to long duration warnings, I think there's a decent shot at 8" between round one and round two, although they could put up another advisory for the second event. Depends if Upton is going to treat them as two events or one. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm confused. Eastern Long Island has a WSW out until 1pm Friday. I have a WWA until only 6pm Thursday. What would be their thinking that they receive 6" more snowfall than here in NE NJ and continue the snow for 19 hours more, although the models actually show the heavier precipitation drying out from east to west with the second part? I think WWAs are issued for short durations, so they can extend it or upgrade it to warning or issue a 2nd WWA for overnight Thursday into Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Cantore is calling it a bust in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Temps i think can be a big problem looking at downstream. Anyone to the north of the low is having a hard time snow without elevation, the better accums/snow/cold seem to be occuring once the low gets past your latitude to the N and E. Thusly with the storm stalled Balt (directly north of the low) is raining while RIC and C/W VA are snowing. Until the low gets well to our E we might be fighting a losing battle with rain / wet snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Cantore is calling it a bust in DC He seems pissed but can't let it out on TV lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Temps i think can be a big problem looking at downstream. Anyone to the north of the low is having a hard time snow without elevation, the better accums/snow/cold seem to be occuring once the low gets past your latitude to the N and E. Thusly with the storm stalled Balt (directly north of the low) is raining while RIC and C/W VA are snowing. Until the low gets well to our E we might be fighting a losing battle with rain / wet snow... 850s are cold there but there is a serious warm intrusion at 925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm not sure if this is going to matter or not but the surface low is already down to 992. Seems stronger than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Temps i think can be a big problem looking at downstream. Anyone to the north of the low is having a hard time snow without elevation, the better accums/snow/cold seem to be occuring once the low gets past your latitude to the N and E. Thusly with the storm stalled Balt (directly north of the low) is raining while RIC and C/W VA are snowing. Until the low gets well to our E we might be fighting a losing battle with rain / wet snow... I wouldn't expect any meaningful snow before 0z pretty much anywhere. It's after this point that it should get cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm seeing a problem. Unless, we get tremendous intensity from this storm, and right now, best vertical velocities stay to our south and east, we have no cold air available. Throw the models aside a moment. How will the northerly winds help us if BTV is 44 dp 28? ALB is 40 dp 29. That is not cold air and mix that with the ocean influence that we are beginning with, I think we're hardpressed to get below 35 or 36 degrees around here and for snow accumulations (this is NOT going to be all snow), tremendous intensity is essential and I just don't see it. This is a duration event, and I'm becoming bearish on amounts due to the lack of cold air. WX/PT Depends on location. North and west are already cold enough which is while even with light intensity its snowing is sussex and passaic already. I could see hard pressed for city/long island to get cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The greatest pressure falls also seem to be a bit northeast of where the current surface low is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The greatest pressure falls also seem to be a bit northeast of where the current surface low is. any thoughts on this down the line for us? possibly creating more cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The greatest pressure falls also seem to be a bit northeast of where the current surface low is. That's because the low is heading in that direction. So with time, those areas are lowering in pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 HPC is more or less throwing out the 12z NAM in favor of a 00zECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/GFS blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That's because the low is heading in that direction. So with time, those areas are lowering in pressure. I understand that. The point of my post is that no model has the surface low that tucked into the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's 38 here, accuweather hour by hour had us at 41 for noon, which would be the high from the day. seems like temps are slightly below forecast, not worried about temps, they should go down as we get into the dynamics from the coastal. immediate city and LI might have problems, westchester/ct/suburban NJ should have no major trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm seeing a problem. Unless, we get tremendous intensity from this storm, and right now, best vertical velocities stay to our south and east, we have no cold air available. Throw the models aside a moment. How will the northerly winds help us if BTV is 44 dp 28? ALB is 40 dp 29. That is not cold air and mix that with the ocean influence that we are beginning with, I think we're hardpressed to get below 35 or 36 degrees around here and for snow accumulations (this is NOT going to be all snow), tremendous intensity is essential and I just don't see it. This is a duration event, and I'm becoming bearish on amounts due to the lack of cold air. WX/PT THIS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 THIS! It's always a concern, that's why the bust potential is so high if out 1" liquid is spread out over so many hours. But this is also the max heating point of the day almost, so we should cool off overnight when more precip should be here. Hopefully that works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 http://www.senate.gov/general/capcam.htm nice link to DC streaming cam...Cantore is right so far....no accums so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I find it funny that here in Morris County we don't even have an advisory. What a joke, I hope we get 20" just to prove a point. This forecast doesn't warrant an advisory. Not saying the forecast is right but if that's what they're predicting, an advisory would be contradictory SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-NORTHAMPTON- 1038 AM EST WED MAR 6 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SNOWFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION, WHICH CAN CAUSE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I find it funny that here in Morris County we don't even have an advisory. What a joke, I hope we get 20" just to prove a point. I'm pretty sure Mt. Holly knows what they are doing. Perhaps you could tell them how you feel in the Philly thread?? Good Luck. ha ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Feels like January 2008 storm that failed. But this is going to be less of a let down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's always a concern, that's why the bust potential is so high if out 1" liquid is spread out over so many hours. But this is also the max heating point of the day almost, so we should cool off overnight when more precip should be here. Hopefully that works out. just by looking at the radar, for our area, i cant see there much if any accumulating snow....even down south where the dynamics are great, its rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Looks like Upton is holding off on warnings for up here till maybe the 0z runs.. They are only calling for 2-4" up here for the initial ( which isn't enough to warrant an advisory or warning).. The trough that comes in thurs night into friday looks to be main player for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 So far at least a big bust in the DC-BALT corridor....and time is running out for them. Im pretty confident we will get decent QPF but temps/accums I think (outside of elevation) could be a problem here as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 just by looking at the radar, for our area, i cant see there much if any accumulating snow....even down south where the dynamics are great, its rain. i am not concerned with the coastal anymore... our attention should be drawn to the trough for late tomorrow. it is well modeled on pretty much every model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 does anyone have the updated version of this, cuz in the DC area it is only off by 15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 For NYC/LI: RGEM really only has about 1"-3" overnight tonight. Then nothing all day tomorrow and then 3"-6" tomorrow night into Friday morning. NNJ: Coating to 1" for NNJ overnight. And then 1"-3" tomorrow night but 3"-6" for extreme NNJ (especially NENJ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's always a concern, that's why the bust potential is so high if out 1" liquid is spread out over so many hours. But this is also the max heating point of the day almost, so we should cool off overnight when more precip should be here. Hopefully that works out. It's a March storm..there is ALWAYS issues in March..hard to believe some here are shocked about this.Even in 1888 there was a half an inch of rain before it changed over..there is always some rain in march storm..lets see how this works out,and please no bust calls before the event ends..we always fall into the same trap..enjoy the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 does anyone have the updated version of this, cuz in the DC area it is only off by 15" I believe this is it http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_12z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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