ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM snow maps show 10"+ for the NW of I-287 folks. 12-15" at High Point, NJ. 12-15" for all of Orange County. Low end warning criteria just NW of the city. So 4-8" for the city and NE NJ and 6-12"+ for people 20-30 miles NW of the city. Would not be surprised to see someone 40 miles NW of the city exceed 18". Total QPF KMMU - 1.75"+ NYC - 1.75"+ All of Long Island - 1.75"+ Twin Forks 2.00"+ Sandy Hook 2.00"+ KPHL 1.75"+ Keep in mind that a lot of this is lost to poor surface temps from the city eastward. The city has surface temps of 32 degrees at 1am and 7am with .71" of precip fallen. You have to look at soundings. Not a blue 32 degree line on Stormvista. The blue line can be 50 miles NW and the temp is 32.4 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 For my fellow Monmouth County posters. From HM in Philly thread: (now he's not definitely saying this is gonna happen but it's a good sign I take it.) I can't wait for Mount Laurel to get a sloppy inch or so while Freehold gets 13 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The NAM seems to be overwarming the 850mb layer, the Euro and other models are a lot colder. I wouldn't worry about it. Looks like some of this is daytime but heavy enough rates will overcome that. Still hard for me to buy 1.0" liquid with an inverted trough but it still could be a nice bonus. I'm glad the euro shows this at least. At this point ill be happy with 2-4", this storm is exhausting but it's likely our last until December so I can't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Looking at the simulated radars I would like to caution everyone well ahead of time. The radar will not always be looking the best at any point in time. It will look great with the coastal through the morning and then begin to look showery and broken up. By the time the norlun gets cranking it looks very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The city has surface temps of 32 degrees at 1am and 7am with .71" of precip fallen. You have to look at soundings. Not a blue 32 degree line on Stormvista. The blue line can be 50 miles NW and the temp is 32.4 degrees. The city has surface temps of 32 degrees at 1am and 7am with .71" of precip fallen. You have to look at soundings. Not a blue 32 degree line on Stormvista. The blue line can be 50 miles NW and the temp is 32.4 degrees. Well that's some good news then. The NAM is probably underdone accumulations wise then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Overdone but the high res NAM gives Vernon over 3.00" of QPF. 2.50"+ from western Morris County NNE through southern Orange County, Western Rockland and Weschester. You can throw Western Passaic and NE Morris in there as well. They really need WWA for tonight and Watches in place at least for the interior for the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 So what would help to focus the heavier banding from the second event over us rather than WNJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What did the Euro put down with the trough feature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 So what would help to focus the heavier banding from the second event over us rather than WNJ? It's going to hit everyone but the hardest hit areas will be the higher elevations. Just a fact of life with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What did the Euro put down with the trough feature? I believe around 0.5 maybe slightly less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What did the Euro put down with the trough feature? It was further NE than the NAM with the heavier precip and not as robust as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yanksfan were still 30ish hours out from the inverted trough feature development. I wouldn't be counting your chickens before they hatch so much can change still for better or worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 "FWIW, the NAM had us getting around 10"+ of snow; we ended up with about 2". That model is just plain awful." -dude in morgantown, WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM seems good, 3-5" with the coastal and another 4-6" with the trough? Is extreme SW CT OK in the trough, or do we rain? If HPN is snow I'm probably snow, does anyone have soundings for HPN? We still get the same end result, just from the trough instead of the coastal... Also keep in mind the NAM is by far the warmest with the trough, EURO has temps as a non issue for it. Thanks -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 These inverted trough events never seem to work out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Not true. Pretty much all of that precip falls from 0-24 hours, meaning it ends at 7 a.m. So, most of it falls at night. The inverted trough is coming in now and looks great. I was only referring to the first batch. About .4" falls overnight and .3" by tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Snow maps shows near 10" in NYC and 12"+ once you get to Bergen County N&W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 "FWIW, the NAM had us getting around 10"+ of snow; we ended up with about 2". That model is just plain awful." -dude in morgantown, WV. Areas to his West (Garrett Co, MD) have around 10". My fam in the Shenandoah Valley of VA (I-81 corridor) have about a foot and a half and it's still pouring snow. They'll probably have their biggest snow since Dec 09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Snow maps shows near 10" in NYC and 12"+ once you get to Bergen County N&W link please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I was only referring to the first batch. About .4" falls overnight and .3" by tonight Still wrong. About 0.1 has fallen in NYC by 4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 According to the clown map the NAM is 6-12" for the western 3/4 of Long Island, more as you head west. 12"+ starts in NE NJ and S NY. But if you take out probably half from the inv trough, it's I'd say a 3-6", 4-7" run for most. Going to be frustrating as hell watching the main CCB skip south of us. If this trough doesn't work out the storm will probably be a huge disappointment from here up through western New England and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Still wrong. About 0.1 has fallen in NYC by 4pm .3" falls by 7pm tonight, .4" falls from 7pm to 7am. WED 1P 06-MAR 4.1 -5.5 1010 82 76 0.04 544 536 WED 7P 06-MAR 1.4 -4.3 1010 94 92 0.26 544 535 THU 1A 07-MAR 0.0 -2.4 1011 95 98 0.26 544 535 THU 7A 07-MAR 0.3 -0.6 1012 90 99 0.13 546 537 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Sun sets at 530 not 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hoping for the best but idk, temps are still ticking upward though if the worst falls after 4 then that shouldn't be a huge issue. It's rough betting on March snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 How much can be on the ground in Western Nassau County by 7AM tomm morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM seems good, 3-5" with the coastal and another 4-6" with the trough? Is extreme SW CT OK in the trough, or do we rain? If HPN is snow I'm probably snow, does anyone have soundings for HPN? We still get the same end result, just from the trough instead of the coastal... Also keep in mind the NAM is by far the warmest with the trough, EURO has temps as a non issue for it. Thanks -skisheep I wouldn't worry about rain with the inverted trough. The NAM seems out to lunch with the thermal profile on that, especially since every model is much colder at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 How much can be on the ground in Western Nassau County by 7AM tomm morning? I'm not hugely optimistic for our area. We have to hope for heavier precip from that CCB on the south shore to dynamically cool the air somewhat. Otherwise we could just have slush and we have to rely on an often unreliable inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 12Z soundings for KEWR looks pretty snowy for both events. 1.722" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I wouldn't worry about rain with the inverted trough. The NAM seems out to lunch with the thermal profile on that, especially since every model is much colder at 850. Yeah, I think the EURO might have the right idea with that, it seems much more realistic than the NAM, which although it has a nice amount of QPF, just seems out to lunch... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 9Z SREFs snowfall plumes shows a mean of 9.33" for LGA http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130306&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=9&mLAT=40.61577996362824&mLON=-74.34215224609375&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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