Allsnow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Heavy snow hr 42 on nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hour 42 we get hammered from the inverted trough, I mean hammered. The whole area. Surface freezing line clearing the city and heading eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Looks like the best chance for something accumulating is around 6pm-10pm tonight per hi rez sim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 First of all most of the coastal precip does not fall during daylight hours that is just blatantly wrong. Surface warm yes but more than half falls after 4pm (ie hr 9 on). Second of all yanks fan the inverted trough would be snow as the rates increase with good vv's it's not an elevation special with no accums city and LI, that's pure speculation on your part (and wrong too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Is it possible the main show will be that inverted trough, looks colder than the coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hour 42 we get hammered from the inverted trough, I mean hammered. The whole area. Surface freezing line clearing the city and heading eastward. This might work out better for us... less from the coastal then get blasted by the trough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hr 45 mod to heavy snow continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 As suspected the freezing line east of the city at 45. Snowing and accumulating nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Through hr 45 everyone is over 1.50" from both events. A hair less west of KMMU. Major snowstorm ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This might work out better for us... less from the coastal then get blasted by the trough! We had a chance to get both, that's what the NAM was showing yesterday, oh well. I don't think anyone would complain if this was the final result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 No doubt that the trough has more potential to be the main snow show. Finicky where it sets up-but ur is broad on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Thank god the euro shows something to this effect lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Holy Norlun though-looks like it really fires up over S NY state and New England in response th the second wave diving south of us. Models are really keying on this more and more it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hr 48 heavy wet snow continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 We had a chance to get both, that's what the NAM was showing yesterday, oh well. I don't think anyone would complain if this was the final result. agreed I like the trough better than the coastal... it was becoming apparent yesterday that it was our best shot and most of the models are clearly showing several with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 At hour 45 we're getting burried. Very heavy snow for Orange County, Sussex County, the northern Poconos and the higher elevations of SE NY state. Moderate to heavy snow for everyone else. The surface freezing line is hanging around western Nassau County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Nam goes bonkers with the inverted trough lol. Wow. Even if its too aggressive and we cut in half it's still 2-4 Thursday night. I definitely like the looks of it. Strong vv's continue to be in the area at 48. Mod to heavy snow for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The SREFs had been trending wetter with the inverted trough for a while now, and the Euro has always looked good with it. It's not just some fluky feature. The vertical velocities look great as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hour 48 we continue to get burried, in fact the trough is beginning to pivot a bit to the southwest which is bringing the heavier echos over northern NJ, the Poconos and as far SE and Weschester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 wow the NAM goes bonkers with the trough.... over 1" qpf with it just alone thru 48 hours and still going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's weird how it just warms everything up after 48 hrs, daytime effect I'm guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 We actually have much better model consensus with the inverted trough than we ever did with the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 On the nam it's probably 2-4 slushy wet snow with the coastal and 6-10 on the inverted trough. Nuts. Lets cut inverted trough qpf in half and still 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hour 51 still getting hammered by the inverted trough, I'm sure the high res simulated radars are going to look very impressive. Heavy precip over the area. Snow for the interior, iffy at the surface for the city eastward as the surface freezing line begins to move out. Could actually be a brief period of freezing rain for the far interior. By hour 54 it starts to slide further SW and temps warm. Everyone likely flips to rain at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Much of that will be during daylight hours with temps above freezing. But if I can squeeze out 3 to 4" of heavy wet snow tonight I'll be happy. Should be a nice pretty snowfall that sticks to everything. I'm sorry. What? Most of that is overnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Last inverted trough that hit us pretty good was Feb 3, 2009http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2009/03-Feb-09.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 On the nam it's probably 2-4 slushy wet snow with the coastal and 6-10 on the inverted trough. Nuts. Lets cut inverted trough qpf in half and still 3-6 How is .70"-.85" for NYC to ISP, 2" of snow on the NAM? Surface temps crash to 32 degrees for NYC as well. NAM is 4"-6" at least for the coastal for NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's weird how it just warms everything up after 48 hrs, daytime effect I'm guessing. The NAM seems to be overwarming the 850mb layer, the Euro and other models are a lot colder. I wouldn't worry about it. Looks like some of this is daytime but heavy enough rates will overcome that. Still hard for me to buy 1.0" liquid with an inverted trough but it still could be a nice bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM snow maps show 10"+ for the NW of I-287 folks. 12-15" at High Point, NJ. 12-15" for all of Orange County. Low end warning criteria just NW of the city. So 4-8" for the city and NE NJ and 6-12"+ for people 20-30 miles NW of the city. Would not be surprised to see someone 40 miles NW of the city exceed 18". Total QPF KMMU - 1.75"+ NYC - 1.75"+ All of Long Island - 1.75"+ Twin Forks 2.00"+ Sandy Hook 2.00"+ KPHL 1.75"+ Sussex 1.50-1.75" KSWF 1.50"-1.75" Mt. Pocono 1.50"+ Keep in mind that a lot of this is lost to poor surface temps from the city eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I agree ag3 i probably undercut a little but. 3-5ish sounds good. Maybe slightly more for areas cold enough and closer to dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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