yl715 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 See here for loop: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=19&parm=500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I didn't see any mention of the 6z GEFS mean. It brings 0.75"+ to the NYC and 0.50"+ for NW areas. Not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I saw not mention of the 6z GEFS mean. It brings 0.75"+ to the NYC and 0.50"+ for NW areas. Not terrible. Perhaps more importantly, NW of the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 New SREF's are out. They scrape us with the coastal and then the main show is the northern stream wave (inverted trough if you will) Still 1.00"+ for everyone including both events. Looks like the Euro FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Seeing the Euro last night was a little disappointing but the upper air trended slightly better and the precip a hair NW so maybe there's a chance at least much of Long Island and maybe NYC can get clipped by the CCB precip (still by far our best shot at real snow from this-it's hard to trust inverted troughs and Norluns). NAM isn't backing down but it seems way too aggressive as usual. The RGEM/GGEM were somewhat re-assuring, and the GFS seems to continue in feedback la-la land. No other model just evaporates most of the CCB precip like that-the much bigger threat is it just misses SE. I'm thinking generally 2-4" from part 1, out of maybe 0.50" or so liquid for most esp. from the City east/south. The initial couple of hours are lost to rain or nonaccumulating slop but hopefully a few hours of accumulating mod-heavy snow can result. I'm being guardedly optimistic and going with 2-4" from part 2/inverted trough, but this is quite volatile and subject to change if this instead decides to linger over New England. So overall I'm sticking with the 4-8" from yesterday, lollis might exist in the Syosset-Upton corridor and maybe in a stretch along Rt. 287. Honestly, huge bust potential and it's hard to know what to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 yes I noticed that Heights are definitely higher out ahead of this thing than the 00z gfs had at 12 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 New SREF's are out. They scrape us with the coastal and then the main show is the northern stream wave (inverted trough if you will) Still 1.00"+ for everyone including both events. Looks like the Euro FWIW. They have .75"-1" for coastal for NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 They have .75"-1" for coastal for NYC and LI. That doesn't include both events or the whole event, whatever you want to call it. Here is your inverted trough precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That doesn't include both events or the whole event, whatever you want to call it. Here is your inverted trough precip. It's much wetter then the euro for the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 They have .75"-1" for coastal for NYC and LI. That doesn't include both events or the whole event, whatever you want to call it. Here is your inverted trough precip. Is that a little circle of .75 in NNJ? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Well the 12z NAM has initialized, it's pretty much the last model showing a major hit with the coastal, if it's going to cave this is the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's much wetter then the euro for the coastal. Well not NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Is that a little circle of .75 in NNJ? Lol Yeah it pretty much jackpots NE NJ up through SE NY State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 So how much does the SREF show total (coastal and trough) for NE NJ/NYC? Same as 6z nam approximately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM is coming north folks. EDIT- Slightly higher heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Well the 12z NAM has initialized, it's pretty much the last model showing a major hit with the coastal, if it's going to cave this is the run. SREF is still quite wet with the coastal, the GGEM and the RGEM last night were decent as well, plus the zillion meso's such as the MM5 that are nice. It's not in great company, but not alone. If it caves, now is the time, but I have a sneaky feeling that this is going to be a nowcast situation... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Seeing the Euro last night was a little disappointing but the upper air trended slightly better and the precip a hair NW so maybe there's a chance at least much of Long Island and maybe NYC can get clipped by the CCB precip (still by far our best shot at real snow from this-it's hard to trust inverted troughs and Norluns). NAM isn't backing down but it seems way too aggressive as usual. The RGEM/GGEM were somewhat re-assuring, and the GFS seems to continue in feedback la-la land. No other model just evaporates most of the CCB precip like that-the much bigger threat is it just misses SE. I'm thinking generally 2-4" from part 1, out of maybe 0.50" or so liquid for most esp. from the City east/south. The initial couple of hours are lost to rain or nonaccumulating slop but hopefully a few hours of accumulating mod-heavy snow can result. I'm being guardedly optimistic and going with 2-4" from part 2/inverted trough, but this is quite volatile and subject to change if this instead decides to linger over New England. So overall I'm sticking with the 4-8" from yesterday, lollis might exist in the Syosset-Upton corridor and maybe in a stretch along Rt. 287. Honestly, huge bust potential and it's hard to know what to think. Solid. I too agree there will be some North Shore Hill hot spots. I can see somewhere like Dix Hills at 250-300 feet getting 8 inches while most of the South Shore is 3ish. I think we see a good amount of snow overall but allot of melting sticking issues keep totals down. Coastal wise the wind is already cranking right on schedule. We should see isolated moderate flooding tomorrow am until the North wind saves the day. Wave wise, if the weenies on here were surfers not snow weenies they would be in their glories. One of the largest and longest swells in recent times all the way through Sunday morning. Good for surfers but bad for the struggling beaches. While there shouldn't be breaches or wash-overs we will lose most of the sand we have since gained since Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 So how much does the NAM show total (coastal and trough) for NE NJ/NYC? Same as 6z nam approximately? not there yet, only out to 3 hours. should be 20 minutes or so... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM is coming north folks. Lol out to 3 hours ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 So how much does the NAM show total (coastal and trough) for NE NJ/NYC? Same as 6z nam approximately? It just started running, I only have it out to hour 6 on the paid site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM is coming north folks. EDIT- Slightly higher heights. its SIGNIFICANTLY SE of 6Z...considering the close in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM is coming north folks. Lol out to 3 hours ? Not quite....it's actually further east this run at 6 hours compared to 12 hours at 6z. I have a bad feeling that its going to look more like gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lol out to 3 hours ? Heights are a bit higher ahead of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Uh oh on the NAM, way SE at 6 compared to earlier. This might cave to GFS... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 However, sim radar at 9 hours much improved over radar from 6z 15 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hour 12 NYC getting grazed by the CCB but the surface is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Please refrain from making judgements if you're unsure. Don't want to give false info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It seems to be a bit faster in making it seem further south ? The low seems to be in the same position as 6z but a frame ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Solid. I too agree there will be some North Shore Hill hot spots. I can see somewhere like Dix Hills at 250-300 feet getting 8 inches while most of the South Shore is 3ish. I think we see a good amount of snow overall but allot of melting sticking issues keep totals down. Coastal wise the wind is already cranking right on schedule. We should see isolated moderate flooding tomorrow am until the North wind saves the day. Wave wise, if the weenies on here were surfers not snow weenies they would be in their glories. One of the largest and longest swells in recent times all the way through Sunday morning. Good for surfers but bad for the struggling beaches. While there shouldn't be breaches or wash-overs we will lose most of the sand we have since gained since Sandy. Yup, definitely windy already in Long Beach this morning. The bay is already whipped up-hopefully we can save much flooding if winds pivot to northerly soon enough. I'm concerned that this becomes much more meh through light rates, and these inverted trough systems often have showery radar appearances which would be bad for accums if during the day. Hopefully most of what we get is at night. At least ground temps look cold for whatever round 2 brings. Really tough one-even more than 2/8 for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It seems to be a bit faster in making it seem further south ? The low seems to be in the same position as 6z but a frame ahead Yup!....fairly similar but FASTER than 6z....not a bad thing, it just comes in faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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