kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 .. Weenie Run look at that 3+ inch blob there in Central NJ.. Either the NAM or GFS is gonna bust VERY BADLY.. I am thinking(hoping) it will be the GFS. I posted a few Days ago with such a big and powerful storm I was betting on the Nam when its in its range to show at least one or two Runs Super juiced up. I think this qualifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Winds picking up here to just went from almost calm to 10 -15 mph in an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 FWIW the NAM except for the 00z 3/5 run did very well the past few days with the inverted trough that just smacked us here in northern Illinois. 9.2", 4th largest calendar day snowfall on record for Chicago. Can definitely attest to inverted troughs producing, even in March, with a long duration moderate, occasionally heavy snow. The NAM actually did pretty well too with the big storm out here on 2/26, persistently showed higher qpf from far northeastern IL into east central Wisconsin that ended up being 12-18" of snow for those areas. Honestly don't know what to tell my family in Queens about this storm since the model differences this close to the event are unreal. I was in Chicago for the holidays and every newscast was about the record snow drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.phpUpton just up totals 4-8"+ Well my former office just helped answer the question of what do I tell my family lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I was in Chicago for the holidays and every newscast was about the record snow drought. Well no more drought. They had a hell of a turn around. Close or at normal seasonal avg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I was in Chicago for the holidays and every newscast was about the record snow drought. Pendulum completely swung the other way, it's been incredible. 3.5" through January 1st at Chicago-O'Hare, the climate site for Chicago, which I think was the least snow on record through 1/31. Now up to 29.5" and only 1.2" below the to date normal season snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 No surprise, 06Z RGEM drier than the 06Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The Euro ensembles are a tick north of the OP, but nothing too crazy. Maybe 20-30 miles or so (at hours 24 and 30). The ensembles have a pretty strong signal for the inverted trough, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Pendulum completely swung the other way, it's been incredible. 3.5" through January 1st at Chicago-O'Hare, the climate site for Chicago, which I think was the least snow on record through 1/31. Now up to 29.5" and only 1.2" below the to date normal season snow. I have friends that live in Naperville. Great area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Mount holly THE NAMCONTINUES TO BE ABNORMALLY WET AND COLD AND IS BEING DISREGARDED. ITALSO TENDS TO STALL THE LOW OVER THE WATER FOR AN EXTENDED PD OFTIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The Euro ensembles are a tick north of the OP, but nothing too crazy. Maybe 20-30 miles or so (at hours 24 and 30). The ensembles have a pretty strong signal for the inverted trough, as well. How are they handling the temps during the trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Mount holly Lol they sound like people in the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I have friends that live in Naperville. Great area Yup, really nice place to live, as much as I love NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The Euro ensembles are a tick north of the OP, but nothing too crazy. Maybe 20-30 miles or so (at hours 24 and 30). The ensembles have a pretty strong signal for the inverted trough, as well. Thanks. Extrapolated, since it is NW some, do you think that the ensembles bring the CCB onshore since the operational had it just off the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lol they sound like people in the forum. Lol you're right. Can somebody who knows the link, what did the 0z mm5 look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 No surprise, 06Z RGEM drier than the 06Z NAM. Is it wetter than the 0z RGEM though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Is it wetter than the 0z RGEM though? Still receiving the specialized maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 06Z RGEM Total Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 6z GFS is horrible....dry so far at 24hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 WWA up WSW for Twin forks Upton... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY432 AM EST WED MAR 6 2013...SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND EASTERNLONG ISLAND...CTZ005>007-009>011-NJZ006-104>108-NYZ069>075-078-080-176>179-062200-/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0008.130306T2300Z-130307T2300Z/NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-432 AM EST WED MAR 6 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO6 PM EST THURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHERADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6PM EST THURSDAY.* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...NYC METRO AREA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL LONG ISLAND.* HAZARD TYPES...WET SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.* TIMING...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOW ON ROADWAYS COULD LEAD TO DIFFICULT TRAVELING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HEAVY...WET SNOW...COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS COULD LEAD TO DOWNED TREE BRANCHES...AND POWER LINES AS WELL.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...ORFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GFS looks somewhat wetter the 0z - pretty similar, less wet earlier but a little wetter later (30hr or so) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NYC gets .25" of QPF total on 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NYC gets .25" of QPF total on 6z GFS I see some improvement though, it has more precip just south of LI at 27 -30 it might be hinting at the band the nam is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Does have inv trough for Thursday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Some of the 06Z RGEM ensembles have an impressive inverted trough late Thursday/early Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Does have inv trough for Thursday night Yea much colder than the nam with it, would be all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 SREF cut down....shows basically an inch or two NYC followed by maybe another inch later. More for Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That's not really cut down by that much is it??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 SREF cut down....shows basically an inch or two NYC followed by maybe another inch later. More for Long Island Wait, what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 SREF cut down....shows basically an inch or two NYC followed by maybe another inch later. More for Long Island So it went from 1.5" of QPF to .3-4"? as a mean thats hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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