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Significant Ocean Storm March 6-8 2013 Discussion Part III


earthlight

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is this an either/or scenario regarding the snow?? i mean if we can get into the CCB tomorrow, does that take away our chances of cashing in on the norlun trough as well?? it would be really nice to have two parts that bring significant snowfall from Wed-Fri...

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Hours 66-72 the norlun is hiting the area and slowing moving out. Final precip totals sneak over 1" for the city and eastern areas. 0.50-0.75 for western areas. Keep in mind that a lot of that is from the norlun trough. I have to say I'm a bit dissapointed I stayed up for this one. Thought it would follow the Canadian.

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At 72 hours, there is about .75" of QPF for NYC. More as you go east with 1" from western Suffolk and east. 1.5" hits Montauk Point. 

 

.5" + for all of NJ. The .75" line goes from TTN and northeast through NYC. 1" line is oriented the same way, but probably about 20 miles south of the .75" line. 

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Rough estimates

 

NYC

Coastal : .5

Northern Stream: 0.5

 

Eastern LI

Coastal: 0.87

Northern Stream: 0.4

 

Northwest NJ

Coastal: 0.20

Northern Stream: 0.35

this means Euro held serve almost exactly same outcome as last run with same % for part I and part II

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is this an either/or scenario regarding the snow?? i mean if we can get into the CCB tomorrow, does that take away our chances of cashing in on the norlun trough as well?? it would be really nice to have two parts that bring significant snowfall from Wed-Fri...

You want the NAM, it's the best of both worlds but if we did miss out on the CCB the Euro gives us a nice consolation prize.

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You definitely want the ccb before the trough, ccb would allow for the best chance of accumulating snow. May have to settle for the trough though, close call for the entire area. Probably wouldn't need much to get the ccb into the area, but unfortunatly we are almost out of time.

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Probably more like the inversion of March 2001. Long duration, little accumulation, light snow falling all day...north gets slammed.

March 2013...long duration, little accumulation, light snow falling all day...south gets slammed

 

Although the storm has not even affected the area, a few things come to mind tonight. A) Climo normally wins out (although NYC might not see a foot of snow); it's clear as day that Richmond may barely see a dusting...138 Hr GFS had a historic snowstorm for that region, which many were touting even in here) B) We were better off in the early 2000's with less modeling and less frequent updates; It seems like we bounce around now more than any other time I can remember over the past ten years. C) People pay too much attention to the details on this board and should look at the synoptic setup instead (the BL issue earlier this evening is a perfect example)

 

meaning what?

 

march 2001: big hype... turned into long duration light snows totaling several inches.

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