IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Moronic... 6 hrs from 00z=1AM which is correct It's been snowing there for quite a few hours already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 ggem total qpf thru 48 - Looks like 15 - 20 mm for nyc .60 - 0.80 That's the UKMET not GGEm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's pretty noticeably farther northwest at h5. Surface a tick that way as well. But it still looks more like the GFS than the NAM so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That's the UKMET not GGEm yes wrong link. long night, but based off the 3 hour panels ggem is less qpf than first thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Sigh...the Euro still looks like the GFS at the surface with the secondary precip max hundreds of miles offshore. Very ugly so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 A definite tick north at 500mb through 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 The huge CCB is just (and I mean just) offshore at 24 hours. Pretty painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm on an iPad, but the gem is about 25-40mm's on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ticked northwest...that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ticked northwest...that's about it. Had an error early on though, wasn't snowing in Washington, D.C Through 6 hours and it is snowing there now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Why does the GFS and Euro have that blob to the right of the low? The radar looks pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Sigh...the Euro still looks like the GFS at the surface with the secondary precip max hundreds of miles offshore. Very ugly so far.I trust the HiRes short range models at this point and I have followed this thinking all day. Its not just one either, all the HiRes short range models are showing significant, heavy precip. To all my friends and colleques who have asked me I'm going with a wind driven heavy snowy tomorrow night. Just my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Slightly wetter than 12z through 48...the CCB misses offshore by a few miles. Clips eastern Long Island and the NJ Shore. We can all head to the shore and wave to it as it passes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's wetter than the GFS but the surface is warm through hr 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Why does the GFS and Euro have that blob to the right of the low? The radar looks pretty impressive. It's most likely a convective feedback issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Slightly wetter than 12z through 48...the CCB misses offshore by a few miles. Clips eastern Long Island and the NJ Shore. We can all head to the shore and wave to it as it passes by. Sounds closer than the GFS. Perhaps some wiggle room for 25 - 50 miles. Curious if it rotates precip back on easterly fetch thu (pm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 I trust the HiRes short range models at this point and I have followed this thinking all day. Its not just one either, all the HiRes short range models are showing significant, heavy precip. To all my friends and colleques who have asked me I'm going with a wind driven heavy snowy tomorrow night. Just my two cents. The high resolution models can really crap the bed in these storm systems so be forewarned. The Euro is far superior to the NCEP model guidance and I would lean towards trusting it especially in the short term. I weighted the Euro over the NCEP models in my forecast but also kept the NCEP models weighted there a bit (didn't completely toss them) to account for their consistency. One of the tougher forecasts in recent memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It looked to interact with the northern stream a bit more this run, but it wasn't enough for a large jump to the west with the precipitation shield. Another slight improvement...enough to keep us in the game, but not enough for any more confidence. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hopefully, tomorrow's final 12z Euro run will correct that extra 3 miles northwest to nail us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hour 42 it waves goodbye, no norlun trough either, at least not yet. It's only about 0.25-0.50" for everyone and the surface is very warm for everyone. I guess this in the GFS camp and it's possible that this could end up being the end result, but I can't help but wonder why that secondary QPF max keeps showing up on only those two models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lightly snowing through 54 hours...QPF totals still slowly rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hour 42 it waves goodbye, no norlun trough either, at least not yet. It's only about 0.25-0.50" for everyone Not sure what you're looking at..NYC is over .5 by 54 hours and nearing .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Looks like around .5" of QPF for NYC through 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The high resolution models can really crap the bed in these storm systems so be forewarned. The Euro is far superior to the NCEP model guidance and I would lean towards trusting it especially in the short term. I weighted the Euro over the NCEP models in my forecast but also kept the NCEP models weighted there a bit (didn't completely toss them) to account for their consistency. One of the tougher forecasts in recent memory. Thank you for the insight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Inverted trough coming down at 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Nice...back to steady snow at 60 hours with that northern stream feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 My goodness so friday it will still be snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Not sure what you're looking at..NYC is over .5 by 54 hours and nearing .75 My bad I cut it off a tad early. The norlun trough comes in just in time to save the day. NW burbs getting it good by hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 So the snow-rain ratio for NYC is 50-50 for the coastal storm on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Sound like this wouldnt differ much from the nam if adjusted 50 - 75 miles NW for the initial precip from the ocean storm, then the rotate back thu into fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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