Significant Ocean Storm March 6-8 2013 Discussion Part III

[Kaner587]

its amazing how different that looks than the 3 individual ones....

if you used addition you'd be able to estimate...as i did about 15 minutes ago. 5-7 in frame one (24) 10ish in frame 2 (36) and around 5-7 in frame 3(48). End result about 20-24

[SACRUS]

its amazing how different that looks than the 3 individual ones....

 

 

those BW images are very tough to read with the ranges.  That said, some of this qpf, perhaps 10mm is from precip rotating back hours 45-48.  So perhaps about 0.75 from the coastl

[JonClaw]

2-3" in NYC IMO, and that's optimistic.

[MJO812]

GFS is just lost. It doesn't even have anything for SNE.

[KEITH L.I]

several inches? yeah thats closer to the GFS than a 20" NAM outcome.

You said RGEM is crappy too..check before you post..please

[Kaner587]

nam thru 48hrs is 1.37 for JFK, simple addition....now, apologize.

 

and to further explain math - .8 is closer to .4 than 1.37

i was wrong its close to 30 for LI which would be 1.2

[Kaner587]

once and for all...we just saw the color map. Which on the RGEM shows orange shading over your house. That is 25-30 mm or 1.0 to 1.2 mm. JFK for the same time frame is 1.37 as you stated. Pretty damn close I'd say. Stop being a weenie

[jm1220]

not true at all ace...take a look at the maps posted in sne forum. GFS is basically nothing. RGEM would be several inches.

 

If you look in the SNE forum (if someone can access the maps, please post), the output is much closer to the NAM's, and we have some heavy precip from the initial wave and then more from the wave coming through on the back side. The GFS just seems off compared to the rest of guidance. And it's had this exact same issue before. Even as the 2/8 storm was happening the GFS continued to show it as a sheared out trainwreck because of feedback errors. It could be right this time but honestly I doubt it's that much of a letdown.We have to hope though that this SE trend on the upper low is done, or the main axis of dynamics might continue to trend south and miss many of us. That I could see happening, and it's impossible to take the NAM face-value either.

[SnoSki14]

I'm about done with these models for this storm although still interested in the Norlun feature.

I'll see what the euro has to offer and just roll with the radar. Most frustrating storm I can ever remember honestly, most radical differences between models so close to event that I can recall as well.

[ag3]

Rgem through hour 48:

NAM through hour 48:

[WintersGrasp]

Lol so many posts so little clue. I am clearly uneducated with all of this but here's what I see happening. Snow developing mixed with rain accumulating a quick coating, mixing some more and slowly accumulating up to maybe an inch. Heavier band comes through and puts down another inch but total snow on ground is only 2-3" until Thursday morning....we get maybe another inch but total snow on the ground remains UP TO 3", probably more like 2 total

[ace0927]

i was wrong its close to 30 for LI which would be 1.2

 

show me the text. its impossible to see the actual qpf for the map - just an estimate

[MJO812]

Meteorologist Craig Allen
 

 

"Forgive me; I'm a bit late. I needed a respite so I enjoyed watching the Islanders pummel the Canadians But it also gave me time to see the very latest run of the nam. It's basically holding its course. The most apparent aspect now is this is going to become typical of some March storms that slow down or even stall....and that is NOT good. In otherwords, whatever we're getting, we'll keep getting for a looooooong time. Prepare yourselves for a long duration storm.

Facts: 1) 30-50 mph winds. Psbl gusts to 60 along the coast
2) Tidal flooding at high tide. My thoughts and concerns go out to coastal residents. It's prbly only a 3-4 foot surge but 2 or even 3 tide cycles will be affected and the water will pile up, unable to drain at low tide. Worst flooding will depend on wind direction which will veer to easterly first , then back to northeast to north. 3) Significant beach erosion likely with 8-16' breakers. 4) Plenty of available precip, perhaps in 2 or 3 separate sequences.

Unknowns 1) Simple...the type of precip and amount of rain vs snow. I'm having a hard time justifying all the calls for heavier snow amounts, especially east across LI from the first part of the storm. Upper air set up is great and cold but low level temps are marginal at best. Completely cyclonic flow of the 40-45° ocean would mean mixing, melting or even plain rain for a while. Where it stays all snow, easy 6" + and that's more likely for the northwest suburbs, north into the lower Hudson Valley and interior CT. (Yes, that is completely opposite of what I thought on Sunday. Back then, the precip wasn't even suppose to make it that far inland)

OK so all of the above is for Wed, Wed ngt into Thu mrng. But wait...there's more! As mentioned, the Low now stalls and wobbles around with spokes of energy rotating ccw around it for another 24 to even 48 hours! Each one will produce it's own round of precip. If cold enough, more snow accumulates. Picking the location of the heavier bands can never be done until they actually develop. Do I need to remind you of the Feb 8 blizzard with snowfall amounts ranging from well under 1 foot to almost 3 feet on LI and CT. Those microcosmic facts of weather will probably never be forecast correctly until a storm is underway.

Our guidance is all over the place ranging from 0 to 20+ depending on where each model places the rain/snow line. To parphrase a colleague, Joe Cioffi, forecasted with a smirk that if you see snow on the ground by dark, be prepared for a big dig. If not, then you may only see slop. There's alot of truth to that statement!

So the serious stuff, which I believe to be the coastal stuff is a given and you should be on high alert. The snowfall is thr toughest part of this forecast so at the very least, be prepared and LEAVE EARLY to get home tomorrow. I don't want to hear about hundreds of stranded people again; it gets me so upset to think of people in that situation.

 

"

[IsentropicLift]

Talk about a long duration event

 

00z NAM KMMU

 

130306/1700Z  17  07017KT  37.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02   14|  0| 86
130306/1800Z  18  06017KT  36.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08   30|  0| 70
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130306/1900Z  19  05018KT  35.5F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13   37|  0| 63
130306/2000Z  20  05017KT  36.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16   30|  0| 70
130306/2100Z  21  04017KT  36.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19   21|  0| 79
130306/2200Z  22  04017KT  36.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23   32|  0| 68
130306/2300Z  23  03017KT  34.4F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29   52|  0| 48
130307/0000Z  24  03018KT  33.5F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34   63|  0| 37
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130307/0100Z  25  03019KT  33.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38   77|  0| 23
130307/0200Z  26  03019KT  32.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41   80|  0| 20
130307/0300Z  27  02020KT  32.4F  SNOW   13:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038   13:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45   89|  0| 11
130307/0400Z  28  02020KT  31.9F  SNOW   14:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041   14:1|  1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.49  100|  0|  0
130307/0500Z  29  02020KT  31.5F  SNOW   11:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048   13:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53  100|  0|  0
130307/0600Z  30  02020KT  31.4F  SNOW    7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037   12:1|  1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.57  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130307/0700Z  31  01020KT  31.2F  SNOW    6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035   11:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.61  100|  0|  0
130307/0800Z  32  01020KT  30.8F  SNOW    8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036   10:1|  2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.64  100|  0|  0
130307/0900Z  33  36020KT  30.5F  SNOW    7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046   10:1|  2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69  100|  0|  0
130307/1000Z  34  36020KT  30.1F  SNOW    6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045    9:1|  3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73  100|  0|  0
130307/1100Z  35  36020KT  30.1F  SNOW    6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037    9:1|  3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77  100|  0|  0
130307/1200Z  36  36020KT  30.3F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025    9:1|  3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130307/1300Z  37  36019KT  31.2F  SNOW    8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023    9:1|  3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.82  100|  0|  0
130307/1400Z  38  36019KT  31.5F  SNOW   10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021    9:1|  3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.84  100|  0|  0
130307/1500Z  39  36018KT  31.9F  SNOW   10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    9:1|  4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.86  100|  0|  0
130307/1600Z  40  36018KT  32.4F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    9:1|  4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.87   90|  0| 10
130307/1700Z  41  36018KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    9:1|  4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.88   83|  0| 17
130307/1800Z  42  36017KT  33.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    9:1|  4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.89   67|  0| 33
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130307/1900Z  43  35018KT  34.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014    9:1|  4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.91   59|  0| 41
130307/2000Z  44  35017KT  34.4F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018    9:1|  4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.92   56|  0| 44
130307/2100Z  45  35017KT  34.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024    9:1|  4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.95   63|  0| 37
130307/2200Z  46  35016KT  34.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    9:1|  4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.97   57|  0| 43
130307/2300Z  47  35016KT  34.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    9:1|  4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.98   57|  0| 43
130308/0000Z  48  35016KT  34.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010    9:1|  4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.99   65|  0| 35
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130308/0100Z  49  35016KT  33.7F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014    9:1|  4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.00   65|  0| 35
130308/0200Z  50  35015KT  33.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015    9:1|  4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.02   71|  0| 29
130308/0300Z  51  35015KT  33.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016    9:1|  4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.03   81|  0| 19
130308/0400Z  52  34015KT  32.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023    9:1|  4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.06   87|  0| 13
130308/0500Z  53  34015KT  32.3F  SNOW    6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035    9:1|  4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.09  100|  0|  0
130308/0600Z  54  34015KT  31.7F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037    8:1|  4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.13  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130308/0700Z  55  34015KT  31.4F  SNPL    6:1| 0.2|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.037    8:1|  4.7|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 1.17   88| 12|  0
130308/0800Z  56  34015KT  31.0F  SNPL    5:1| 0.2|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.036    8:1|  4.9|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 1.20   86| 14|  0
130308/0900Z  57  34015KT  30.8F  SNPL    5:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.029    8:1|  5.1|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.23   76| 24|  0
130308/1000Z  58  35014KT  31.0F  SNPL    5:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.017    8:1|  5.1|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 1.25   61| 39|  0
130308/1100Z  59  35014KT  31.0F  SNPL    3:1| 0.1|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.033    8:1|  5.2|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 1.28   42| 58|  0
130308/1200Z  60  35014KT  31.2F  SNPL    3:1| 0.2|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.056    7:1|  5.4|| 0.16|| 0.00|| 1.34   34| 66|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130308/1300Z  61  35014KT  31.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.066    7:1|  5.4|| 0.16|| 0.07|| 1.40    0|  0|100
130308/1400Z  62  36014KT  32.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031    7:1|  5.4|| 0.16|| 0.07|| 1.43    0|  0|100
130308/1500Z  63  36014KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035    7:1|  5.4|| 0.16|| 0.07|| 1.47    0|  0|100
130308/1600Z  64  36014KT  32.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041    7:1|  5.4|| 0.16|| 0.07|| 1.51    0|  0|100
130308/1700Z  65  36014KT  32.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039    7:1|  5.4|| 0.16|| 0.07|| 1.55    0|  0|100
130308/1800Z  66  36015KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043    7:1|  5.4|| 0.16|| 0.07|| 1.59    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130308/1900Z  67  36015KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.049    7:1|  5.4|| 0.16|| 0.07|| 1.64    0|  0|100
130308/2000Z  68  36015KT  33.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054    7:1|  5.4|| 0.16|| 0.07|| 1.69    0|  0|100
130308/2100Z  69  01015KT  34.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029    7:1|  5.4|| 0.16|| 0.07|| 1.72    0|  0|100
130308/2200Z  70  01015KT  35.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017    7:1|  5.4|| 0.16|| 0.07|| 1.74    0|  0|100
130308/2300Z  71  01015KT  35.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003    7:1|  5.4|| 0.16|| 0.07|| 1.74    0|  0|100
130309/0000Z  72  01014KT  35.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    7:1|  5.4|| 0.16|| 0.07|| 1.74    0|  0|  0

 

KLGA

 

 

130306/1700Z  17  06018KT  39.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02    0|  0|100
130306/1800Z  18  06019KT  38.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130306/1900Z  19  05019KT  37.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12    9|  0| 91
130306/2000Z  20  05019KT  38.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15    3|  0| 97
130306/2100Z  21  04019KT  37.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19    2|  0| 98
130306/2200Z  22  04019KT  36.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25   12|  0| 88
130306/2300Z  23  03019KT  35.7F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31   34|  0| 66
130307/0000Z  24  03019KT  34.4F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37   52|  0| 48
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130307/0100Z  25  03020KT  33.7F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42   69|  0| 31
130307/0200Z  26  03021KT  33.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47   77|  0| 23
130307/0300Z  27  02022KT  33.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52   75|  0| 25
130307/0400Z  28  02022KT  32.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.57   84|  0| 16
130307/0500Z  29  02021KT  32.4F  SNOW   17:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053   17:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.62   90|  0| 10
130307/0600Z  30  02021KT  32.4F  SNOW   16:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055   16:1|  1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67   90|  0| 10
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130307/0700Z  31  01021KT  32.4F  SNOW   16:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064   16:1|  2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.74   90|  0| 10
130307/0800Z  32  01021KT  32.1F  SNOW   13:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072   15:1|  3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81  100|  0|  0
130307/0900Z  33  01021KT  31.9F  SNOW    8:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.082   13:1|  4.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.89  100|  0|  0
130307/1000Z  34  01021KT  31.5F  SNOW    7:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070   12:1|  4.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.96  100|  0|  0
130307/1100Z  35  36020KT  31.4F  SNOW    7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058   12:1|  5.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.02  100|  0|  0
130307/1200Z  36  36019KT  31.2F  SNOW    8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041   11:1|  5.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.06  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130307/1300Z  37  36019KT  31.7F  SNOW   10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021   11:1|  5.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.08  100|  0|  0
130307/1400Z  38  36019KT  32.1F  SNOW   11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010   11:1|  6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.09  100|  0|  0
130307/1500Z  39  36018KT  32.4F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009   11:1|  6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.10   90|  0| 10
130307/1600Z  40  36018KT  32.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009   11:1|  6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.11   88|  0| 12
130307/1700Z  41  35018KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   11:1|  6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.12   83|  0| 17
130307/1800Z  42  35018KT  34.1F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012   11:1|  6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.13   43| 38| 19
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130307/1900Z  43  35018KT  35.0F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027   11:1|  6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.16   36| 33| 31
130307/2000Z  44  35017KT  35.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022   11:1|  6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.18   50|  0| 50
130307/2100Z  45  35017KT  34.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020   11:1|  6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.20   52|  0| 48
130307/2200Z  46  35017KT  34.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017   11:1|  6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.22   54|  0| 46
130307/2300Z  47  35017KT  34.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021   11:1|  6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.24   60|  0| 40
130308/0000Z  48  35017KT  33.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017   11:1|  6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26   62|  0| 38
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130308/0100Z  49  35017KT  33.5F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024   11:1|  6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.28   76|  0| 24
130308/0200Z  50  35016KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023   11:1|  6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.31   75|  0| 25
130308/0300Z  51  35016KT  32.8F  SNPL    4:1| 0.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.026   11:1|  6.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 1.33   65| 24| 11
130308/0400Z  52  34016KT  32.6F  SNPL    3:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.029   11:1|  6.2|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 1.36   50| 43|  7
130308/0500Z  53  34016KT  32.6F  SNPL    2:1| 0.1|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.030   10:1|  6.3|| 0.09|| 0.00|| 1.39   31| 64|  5
130308/0600Z  54  34016KT  32.4F  SNPL    1:1| 0.0|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.032   10:1|  6.3|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 1.42   20| 78|  3
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130308/0700Z  55  34015KT  32.4F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.031   10:1|  6.3|| 0.20|| 0.00|| 1.45    4| 95|  1
130308/0800Z  56  34015KT  32.3F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.021   10:1|  6.3|| 0.25|| 0.00|| 1.48    9| 91|  0
130308/0900Z  57  35014KT  32.3F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.022   10:1|  6.3|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.50    1| 99|  0
130308/1000Z  58  35014KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032   10:1|  6.3|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.53    0|  0|100
130308/1100Z  59  35014KT  32.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046   10:1|  6.3|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.58    0|  0|100
130308/1200Z  60  35013KT  32.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054   10:1|  6.3|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.63    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130308/1300Z  61  36013KT  33.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037   10:1|  6.3|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.67    0|  0|100
130308/1400Z  62  36013KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017   10:1|  6.3|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.68    0|  0|100
130308/1500Z  63  36013KT  33.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033   10:1|  6.3|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.72    0|  0|100
130308/1600Z  64  36014KT  34.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028   10:1|  6.3|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.74    0|  0|100
130308/1700Z  65  36014KT  35.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035   10:1|  6.3|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.78    0|  0|100
130308/1800Z  66  36014KT  35.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043   10:1|  6.3|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.82    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130308/1900Z  67  01014KT  36.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056   10:1|  6.3|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.88    0|  0|100
130308/2000Z  68  01014KT  36.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037   10:1|  6.3|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.91    0|  0|100
130308/2100Z  69  01015KT  38.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013   10:1|  6.3|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.93    0|  0|100
130308/2200Z  70  01015KT  39.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006   10:1|  6.3|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.93    0|  0|100
130308/2300Z  71  01015KT  39.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   10:1|  6.3|| 0.29|| 0.00|| 1.93    0|  0|  0

 

KSWF

 

130306/2100Z  21  05019KT  38.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    5|  0| 95
130306/2200Z  22  04019KT  36.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01   21|  0| 79
130306/2300Z  23  04018KT  35.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03   47|  0| 53
130307/0000Z  24  03018KT  33.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06   75|  0| 25
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130307/0100Z  25  03019KT  32.4F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026    7:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09   90|  0| 10
130307/0200Z  26  03019KT  32.1F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016    8:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10  100|  0|  0
130307/0300Z  27  03019KT  31.2F  SNOW    8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021    8:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12  100|  0|  0
130307/0400Z  28  02019KT  30.6F  SNOW    9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028    8:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15  100|  0|  0
130307/0500Z  29  02019KT  30.1F  SNOW    8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034    8:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19  100|  0|  0
130307/0600Z  30  02018KT  29.9F  SNOW    7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041    8:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130307/0700Z  31  01019KT  29.6F  SNOW    9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040    8:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27  100|  0|  0
130307/0800Z  32  01019KT  29.2F  SNOW   11:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042    8:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31  100|  0|  0
130307/0900Z  33  01019KT  28.8F  SNOW   11:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051    9:1|  2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36  100|  0|  0
130307/1000Z  34  01019KT  28.5F  SNOW   10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047    9:1|  3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41  100|  0|  0
130307/1100Z  35  01020KT  28.3F  SNOW    7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035    9:1|  3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44  100|  0|  0
130307/1200Z  36  01020KT  28.3F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023    9:1|  3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.46  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130307/1300Z  37  01020KT  28.8F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    9:1|  3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48  100|  0|  0
130307/1400Z  38  36020KT  29.9F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016    9:1|  3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.50  100|  0|  0
130307/1500Z  39  01019KT  30.8F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014    9:1|  3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51  100|  0|  0
130307/1600Z  40  01019KT  32.3F  SNOW   11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011    9:1|  4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53  100|  0|  0
130307/1700Z  41  36019KT  33.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    9:1|  4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54   84|  0| 16
130307/1800Z  42  36019KT  33.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    9:1|  4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54   78|  0| 22
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130307/1900Z  43  36019KT  33.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    9:1|  4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55   75|  0| 25
130307/2000Z  44  36019KT  33.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014    9:1|  4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.57   82|  0| 18
130307/2100Z  45  36018KT  32.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024    9:1|  4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59   88|  0| 12
130307/2200Z  46  36017KT  32.3F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030    8:1|  4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.62  100|  0|  0
130307/2300Z  47  36016KT  31.7F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032    8:1|  4.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65  100|  0|  0
130308/0000Z  48  35016KT  31.4F  SNOW    7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035    8:1|  4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130308/0100Z  49  35016KT  31.0F  SNOW    9:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044    8:1|  5.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73  100|  0|  0
130308/0200Z  50  35015KT  30.6F  SNOW   10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046    9:1|  5.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.78  100|  0|  0
130308/0300Z  51  35015KT  30.5F  SNOW   11:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053    9:1|  6.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83  100|  0|  0
130308/0400Z  52  35014KT  30.3F  SNOW    9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050    9:1|  6.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.88  100|  0|  0
130308/0500Z  53  35014KT  30.3F  SNPL    3:1| 0.2|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.049    8:1|  6.8|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.93   62| 38|  0
130308/0600Z  54  35014KT  30.3F  SNPL    3:1| 0.1|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.040    8:1|  6.9|| 0.09|| 0.00|| 0.97   36| 64|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130308/0700Z  55  35015KT  30.3F  SNPL    3:1| 0.1|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.039    8:1|  7.0|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 1.01   30| 70|  0
130308/0800Z  56  35015KT  30.6F  SNPL    2:1| 0.1|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.032    8:1|  7.1|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 1.04   24| 76|  0
130308/0900Z  57  36015KT  30.6F  SNPL    1:1| 0.1|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.035    8:1|  7.2|| 0.25|| 0.00|| 1.08   14| 86|  0
130308/1000Z  58  36016KT  30.6F  SNPL    1:1| 0.1|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.039    7:1|  7.2|| 0.32|| 0.00|| 1.11   14| 86|  0
130308/1100Z  59  36016KT  30.1F  SNPL    2:1| 0.1|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.048    7:1|  7.3|| 0.40|| 0.00|| 1.16   14| 86|  0
130308/1200Z  60  01016KT  29.9F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.051    7:1|  7.3|| 0.50|| 0.00|| 1.21    1| 99|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130308/1300Z  61  01016KT  30.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.047    7:1|  7.3|| 0.50|| 0.05|| 1.26    0|  0|100
130308/1400Z  62  01016KT  30.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.033    7:1|  7.3|| 0.50|| 0.08|| 1.29    0|  0|100
130308/1500Z  63  01016KT  31.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.034    7:1|  7.3|| 0.50|| 0.12|| 1.33    0|  0|100
130308/1600Z  64  01016KT  31.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.027    7:1|  7.3|| 0.50|| 0.15|| 1.35    0|  0|100
130308/1700Z  65  01015KT  32.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028    7:1|  7.3|| 0.50|| 0.15|| 1.38    0|  0|100
130308/1800Z  66  01015KT  33.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037    7:1|  7.3|| 0.50|| 0.15|| 1.42    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130308/1900Z  67  01015KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035    7:1|  7.3|| 0.50|| 0.15|| 1.45    0|  0|100
130308/2000Z  68  01016KT  34.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    7:1|  7.3|| 0.50|| 0.15|| 1.46    0|  0|100


 

[WE GOT HIM]

Lol can we open the Current OBs thread early?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Honestly this storm is a blast. When was the last time we had a storm this hard to forecast! I am loving it and I am sticking with my call of a couple slushy inches in my local with no street accum. That is based of a GFS/Euro split. I think the NAM is out to lunch.

[wxman]

You know what, in looking at the 00 GFS vs NAM, the features are not wildly different.  What's different is the NAM's placement of the QPF (not just amount, but amount too, obviously) .  The NAM has heavy qpf very displaced from the center.  The GFS not. NAM looks suspect to me, but the fact that the other high res models do the same thing (more or less) lends some credence I think.

[Dsnowx53]

I just had to delete nearly an entire page of posts, and I'm usually not that strict of a moderator. The bickering and awful tone seriously needs to stop. 

[ace0927]

Rgem through hour 48:

NAM through hour 48:

are my eyes deceiving me or is there light green 15-20mm on the south shore of LI, vs 30-40 for the nam? 

[WintersGrasp]

Honestly this storm is a blast. When was the last time we had a storm this hard to forecast! I am loving it and I am sticking with my call of a couple slushy inches in my local with no street accum. That is based of a GFS/Euro split. I think the NAM is out to lunch.

I agree it is rather exciting ! Haha...I see the NAM being wrong as well. I'm sure the euro will come in closer to the GFS and the NAM might cave at 6z

[kingwill42]

LOL,storm after storm no matter what the scenario you and Ace continue to be the Debbie Downers. I happen to think the Nam is more likely to be correct than the GFS in which case you will be wrong with those totals.

Lol so many posts so little clue. I am clearly uneducated with all of this but here's what I see happening. Snow developing mixed with rain accumulating a quick coating, mixing some more and slowly accumulating up to maybe an inch. Heavier band comes through and puts down another inch but total snow on ground is only 2-3" until Thursday morning....we get maybe another inch but total snow on the ground remains UP TO 3", probably more like 2 total

[jm1220]

Rgem through hour 48:

NAM through hour 48:

If anything the RGEM might be a hair wetter than the last run. An encouraging sign IMO that the GFS is just clueless here. NAM is too wet most likely but hopefully has a good idea as to placement.

[IsentropicLift]

You know what, in looking at the 00 GFS vs NAM, the features are not wildly different.  What's different is the NAM's placement of the QPF (not just amount, but amount too, obviously) .  The NAM has heavy qpf very displaced from the center.  The GFS not. NAM looks suspect to me, but the fact that the other high res models do the same thing (more or less) lends some credence I think.

The major differences are with that last piece of northern stream energy dropping in. It's more of a kicker on the GFS and helps to tug it closer to the coast on the NAM.

 

The new GFS doesn't even have the norlun trough which just about every other model shows.

[Chaser25973]

The EURO will sort out this mess in 2 hours. 

[ag3]

If anything the RGEM might be a hair wetter than the last run. An encouraging sign IMO that the GFS is just clueless here. NAM is too wet most likely but hopefully has a good idea as to placement.

Look at the 5mm shade on those 2 maps. Nearly in the identical spot.

NAM is just too wet over our area.

But the placement looks very similar.

[battlebrick]

Never said to throw out the short terms, but it gets a little ridiculous when people keep the models that show good solutions and throw out the ones that show bad solutions. This is not the only storm it happens on; it happens EVERY single potential storm. It gets annoying after a while, don't you think? 

[Zir0b]

If anything the RGEM might be a hair wetter than the last run. An encouraging sign IMO that the GFS is just clueless here. NAM is too wet most likely but hopefully has a good idea as to placement.

Honestly, I don't know what to think. You've got the RGEM/NAM/SREFs very much in consensus. Then the GFS/UKMET. Really curious to see the GGEM. Does it follow it's cousin? 

[rgwp96]

rgem precip that falls as snow

 

[SACRUS]

UKMET looks better than the GFS

 

 

 

hour 30 missing 

 

 

36

 

 

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

I'd say the GFS has less of a chance of verifying as the other models including the euro have the norlun and the GFS doesn't show it.