Significant Ocean Storm March 6-8 2013 Discussion Part III

[Dsnowx53]

The RGEM looks great, especially from NYC and east. Here is the total QPF through 48 hours. And it's still snowing moderately to heavily at that point, so a few more tenths of an inch are likely.

 

 

And here is the RGEM total snow, through 48. 

 

[Kaner587]

How relevant this may be who knows but quoting dsnow, thunderstorms in a developing lp can cause latent heat release and slightly raise the heights ahead of the system. This is more for a developing miller a in the GOM but just an FYI

[ag3]

  On 3/6/2013 at 3:57 PM, Dsnowx53 said:

The RGEM looks great. Here is the total QPF through 48 hours. And it's still snowing moderately to heavily at that point, so a few more tenths of an inch are likely.

 

 

And here is the RGEM total snow, through 48. 

 

 

 

Hour 48 sim radar...Still snowing moderately to heavy:

 

[jm1220]

  On 3/6/2013 at 3:47 PM, YanksFan27 said:

Okay even the GFS shows warning criteria snowfall now for the western burbs, time for a warning to be hoisted, this is getting ridiculous.

Warning criteria is 8" over 24 hours. The bar is raised given the long duration event. Ratios might also be lower than 10-1.

[Zelocita Weather]

Finally looks like we have agreement on all models for between 0.75 and 1.25" roughly QPF.

[Zelocita Weather]

And its looking less like a Norlun trough and more like an extension of the CCB that conects the coastal and the new shortwave...

[sferic]

  On 3/6/2013 at 3:57 PM, Dsnowx53 said:

The RGEM looks great, especially from NYC and east. Here is the total QPF through 48 hours. And it's still snowing moderately to heavily at that point, so a few more tenths of an inch are likely.

 

 

And here is the RGEM total snow, through 48. 

 

 

 

But as your neighbor in Lynbrook is this good for us?

[Kaner587]

  On 3/6/2013 at 3:59 PM, Zelocita Weather said:

Finally looks like we have agreement on all models for between 0.75 and 1.25" roughly QPF.

Yup thank god

[Dsnowx53]

  On 3/6/2013 at 4:00 PM, sferic said:

But as your neighbor in Lynbrook is this good for us?

 

 

Taking the RGEM literally, it probably ends up being a 6-10" snow event for us, combining both events, not including any melting that happens in between the coastal and the inverted trough. 

[WintersGrasp]

Interesting storm...I'd much rather take this and the chance at this than a run of the mill 3-6 snow

[christhesnowman]

its absurd that NWS mt holly has not even issued an advisory in sussex/morris/warren...btw i heard its moderate snow up in high point right now

[BxEngine]

Does the rgem have more precip from the 2nd half or the 1st?

[IsentropicLift]

  On 3/6/2013 at 3:57 PM, jm1220 said:

Warning criteria is 8" over 24 hours. The bar is raised given the long duration event. Ratios might also be lower than 10-1.

I wasn't talking about the city. Anyway if the NAM is correct NW areas will see double that, if not more.

[SR Airglow]

  On 3/6/2013 at 4:05 PM, BxEngine said:

Does the rgem have more precip from the 2nd half or the 1st?

I think it's about equal, roughly .5-.6" for both. 2nd might be a tiny bit more but it's really close...

-skisheep

[jm1220]

  On 3/6/2013 at 4:00 PM, sferic said:

But as your neighbor in Lynbrook is this good for us?

That's half an inch to close to an inch of liquid as snow, which is more than the RGEM showed last night so I'd say it's very good. And it's still snowing hard.

[Dsnowx53]

  On 3/6/2013 at 4:05 PM, BxEngine said:

Does the rgem have more precip from the 2nd half or the 1st?

 

 

Depends on where you are. Since you are a bit north of NYC, it's a bit more from the 2nd half...though the exact splits I do not know. For NYC and east it's about equal...maybe a tad more for the coastal in parts of LI. But it is still snowing at a pretty good clip at 48 hours. 

[mikemost]

  On 3/6/2013 at 4:03 PM, christhesnowman said:

its absurd that NWS mt holly has not even issued an advisory in sussex/morris/warren...btw i heard its moderate snow up in high point right now

Winds have been stout here in Whippany all morning... If nothing more, I tend to think we'll be approaching at least wind advisory criteria as the dynamics of the storm start to overspread the area later this afternoon. First power outage reports starting to come in. http://outages.firstenergycorp.com/nj.html

[IsentropicLift]

That convection down off the southern Delmarva is being well depicted by the NAM radars. That's why it gives that region so much rain.

[BxEngine]

  On 3/6/2013 at 4:07 PM, Dsnowx53 said:

Depends on where you are. Since you are a bit north of NYC, it's a bit more from the 2nd half...though the exact splits I do not know. For NYC and east it's about equal...maybe a tad more for the coastal in parts of LI. But it is still snowing at a pretty good clip at 48 hours.

Thanks, appreciate it. Trying to figure out how much we get tonight, melt a bit tmrw maybe, and add tomorrow night is nuts.

[Stormlover74]

  On 3/6/2013 at 4:07 PM, mikemost said:

Winds have been stout here in Whippany all morning... If nothing more, I tend to think we'll be approaching at least wind advisory criteria as the dynamics of the storm start to overspread the area later this afternoon. First power outage reports starting to come in. http://outages.firstenergycorp.com/nj.html

I think he meant winter weather advisory

[IsentropicLift]

Report of moderate to heavy burst of snowing moving through Sussex and Western Passaic Counties.

[Dsnowx53]

  On 3/6/2013 at 3:57 PM, Kaner587 said:

How relevant this may be who knows but quoting dsnow, thunderstorms in a developing lp can cause latent heat release and slightly raise the heights ahead of the system. This is more for a developing miller a in the GOM but just an FYI

 

 

Well, thunderstorms always cause latent heat release, which will inherently increase the heights a bit. This is relevant everywhere.

 

That being said, the GOM is a better warm moisture source, so convection is often stronger there. 

[mikemost]

  On 3/6/2013 at 4:10 PM, Plfdwxdude said:

I think he meant winter weather advisory

Well I don't know actually. Since Mt. Holly has been bearish on total snowfall for my area (KMMU, point & click says 1-2+") - I figured that they'd at least put out an advisory regarding the wind. Morristown Municipal Airport is reporting sustained East winds of 26mph with gusts to 40mph already.

[sferic]

So do the experts see NYC/LI snowing at rush hour tonight?

[RevWarReenactor]

  On 3/6/2013 at 3:31 PM, SACRUS said:

Still rain in Baltimore from what I hear

 

 

This is correct. Im 30 miles northeast of Baltimore. All rain. About 40 degree. Good luck up there. So far its a bust down here.

[IsentropicLift]

Great banding signals already showing up just to our south. The outer "bands" look more like a tropical system as they rotate in.

 

Water Vapor loop looks fantastic. The main swirl is just east of DC.

 

You can also see the ULL sitting hundreds of miles SE of Cape Cod and the block starting to come down from east of Maine.

 

Our northern stream wave is also evident

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

[ag3]

  On 3/6/2013 at 4:15 PM, Mdecoy said:

This is correct. Im 30 miles northeast of Baltimore. All rain. About 40 degree. Good luck up there. So far its a bust down here.

 

 

Not on the rgem

 

Total snow through hour 12:

 

[WintersGrasp]

I'm confused. Eastern Long Island has a WSW out until 1pm Friday. I have a WWA until only 6pm Thursday. What would be their thinking that they receive 6" more snowfall than here in NE NJ and continue the snow for 19 hours more, although the models actually show the heavier precipitation drying out from east to west with the second part?

[ag3]

  On 3/6/2013 at 4:17 PM, ag3 said:

Not on the rgem

 

Total snow through hour 12:

 

 

And here is after 1pm today:

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I'm seeing a problem. Unless, we get tremendous intensity from this storm, and right now, best vertical velocities stay to our south and east, we have no cold air available. Throw the models aside a moment. How will the northerly winds help us if BTV is 44 dp 28? ALB is 40 dp 29. That is not cold air and mix that with the ocean influence that we are beginning with, I think we're hardpressed to get below 35 or 36 degrees around here and for snow accumulations (this is NOT going to be all snow), tremendous intensity is essential and I just don't see it. This is a duration event, and I'm becoming bearish on amounts due to the lack of cold air.

WX/PT