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March 4th-6th Winter Storm Part 3

Powerball

By Powerball,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Time to call it for LAF. Back edge through Springfield...and the pivot should set up shop to the north and east. Steady rain and 36º.

Good luck to those in eastern and northern Indiana. :snowing:

lol

In the words of a well-known poster, patients.

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tuanis

tuanis

Posted
Posted

Just walked the dog around my neighborhood on the north side of the city. I'd guess there's about 2 or so inches out there so far, and it's accumulating pretty well. Visibility is pretty high due to the small flake size, but those small flakes are coming down nicely as evidenced by my hat & jacket after walking around the block a couple times. There really is no melting ongoing. Last storm, the trees were dripping all over the place during the height of the storm, this time everything that's falling is staying put. I'd imagine temps are right at freezing - it doesn't feel cold out there and very little wind to speak of. Side streets are white, main roads are wet with a little accumulation outside of the main lanes of traffic.

As the afternoon progresses, I could see this piling up to 5 or 6" of snow eventually as long as some of the better bands sit over the city. I'm pretty doubtful about anything higher than that, though.

This is likely my last snowstorm while living in Chicago. In a couple weeks, the wife & I are moving into our new home on a couple acres of land in east Libertyville. Looking forward to the Geos-effect living up there. This certainly is a nice snowfall to end on!

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snowlover2

snowlover2

Posted
Posted

Not sure if anyone already posted this. IND had a really nice update to the AFD concerning the factors coming together including moisture feed from the Atlantic. Very promising update.

 

 

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A RELATIVE LULL WITH LIGHT PRECIP AT
THE MOMENT THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH WET
SNOWFLAKES AND EVEN A FEW ICE PELLETS IMPACTING FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 16Z...WITH PRECIP EXPANDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING. TEMPS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 30S LATE THIS MORNING.

LOT TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE UPDATE WITH SOME CHANGES IN ORDER TO THE
HEADLINES AND SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON MOST RECENT MODEL DATA.

SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOWING SLOW MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LEVELS
AND WILL SEE PRECIP COVERAGE EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND FORCING ALOFT INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. MEANWHILE...INTENSE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA WILL APPROACH AND ROTATE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDING AND 850MB TEMP
ANALYSIS SHOW COLDER AIR THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPANDING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z.

ONCE THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TAKES PLACE...EXPECT A NUMBER OF
PARAMETERS TO COME INTO PLAY TO PROVIDE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS EVENING FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND N/E OF THE
INTERSTATE 74 CORRIDOR. AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING...AXIS OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION COMBINED WITH
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...
HIGH DIV Q VALUES AND THE PASSAGE OF A DECENT DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE TO PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING FOR HEAVY SNOW. THESE FEATURES MAY
ALSO COMBINE TO ALLOW FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS UNDERNEATH THE DEEPER
FORCING WHICH WOULD SERVE TO ACCENTUATE SNOWFALL RATES. BY 06Z AS
THE SECONDARY COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER...MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO PULL
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK WEST INTO THE REGION AND INTERACT WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE TROWAL TO MAINTAIN STRONG LIFT AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL EVEN AS BETTER DEFORMATION AND MID LEVEL FORCING BEGINS
TO DIMINISH WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THE TROWAL WILL THEN ROTATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.

THESE FEATURES ABOVE WITH THE MOISTURE PRESENT SUPPORT SNOWFALL
TOTALS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 74 OF 4 TO 5
INCHES TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
MAJORITY OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING...WITH THE NAM
AND RAP SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF INDY METRO. REGARDLESS CONSIDERING ABOVE
THOUGHTS...FEEL COMFORTABLE IN EXPANDING THE WARNING WEST A ROW OF
COUNTIES TO INCLUDE MARION COUNTY AND MUCH OF THE INDY METRO.
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LIKELY TO COME THIS EVENING IN THE WARNING AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 06-08Z WITH GRADUALLY LIGHTENING RATES THEREAFTER AS
THE TROWAL ROTATES SOUTHEAST. FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...HAVE ADJUSTED
ALL HEADLINES TO BEGIN AT 20Z.

WILL REVISIT DECISIONS FURTHER FOR MAIN FORECAST PACKAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS MORE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE.

 


 

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

Just walked the dog around my neighborhood on the north side of the city. I'd guess there's about 2 or so inches out there so far, and it's accumulating pretty well. Visibility is pretty high due to the small flake size, but those small flakes are coming down nicely as evidenced by my hat & jacket after walking around the block a couple times. There really is no melting ongoing. Last storm, the trees were dripping all over the place during the height of the storm, this time everything that's falling is staying put. I'd imagine temps are right at freezing - it doesn't feel cold out there and very little wind to speak of. Side streets are white, main roads are wet with a little accumulation outside of the main lanes of traffic.

As the afternoon progresses, I could see this piling up to 5 or 6" of snow eventually as long as some of the better bands sit over the city. I'm pretty doubtful about anything higher than that, though.

This is likely my last snowstorm while living in Chicago. In a couple weeks, the wife & I are moving into our new home on a couple acres of land in east Libertyville. Looking forward to the Geos-effect living up there. This certainly is a nice snowfall to end on!

 

nice report...my 4-7 call from last night isn't looking half bad for the city.  Will bust low for the far western CWA

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Brewers

Brewers

Posted
Posted

You'll get back into the high end moderate stuff for sure. Snowing hard like it was last Tuesday right now.

 

We will see but dry air is a concern up here in MKE, just take a look at the GRB sounding which shows plenty of dry air around 850mb.

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Jrad08

Jrad08

Posted
Posted

Not sure if anyone already posted this. IND had a really nice update to the AFD concerning the factors coming together including moisture feed from the Atlantic. Very promising update.

 

 

 

 

I have been keeping an eye on the potential for moisture enhancement and the models do seem to be hinting at it as well. Any personal guesses as to how much we might receive here in the Dayton area? I'm going with 6-8 around here but I think someone may receive close to a foot if all the condtions come together just right...

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

Odds are increasing this could be a top 10 snowstorm for RFD. As you can see, 3 of the top 5 events have occured in March.

 

1. 16.3" - 1/6-7/1918

2. 16.0" - 3/30-31/1926

3. 15.1" - 1/31`-2/2/2011

4. 15.0" - 3/21-22/1932

5. 13.8" - 3/1-2/1948

6. 12.9" - 12/11-13/1909

7. 12.5" - 2/10-11/1944

8. 12.3" - 1/11-14/1979

9. 12.0" - 1/17-19/1943

10. 11.5" - 1/14-15/1943

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

We will see but dry air is a concern up here in MKE, just take a look at the GRB sounding which shows plenty of dry air around 850mb.

 

I thought you were in Racine today. Racine south should do really well with accumulations.

 

Pouring snow here right now. Should hit 4" by 2pm. Temp down to -2°C.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Odds are increasing this could be a top 10 snowstorm for RFD. As you can see, 3 of the top 5 events have occured in March.

1. 16.3" - 1/6-7/1918

2. 16.0" - 3/30-31/1926

3. 15.1" - 1/31`-2/2/2011

4. 15.0" - 3/21-22/1932

5. 13.8" - 3/1-2/1948

6. 12.9" - 12/11-13/1909

7. 12.5" - 2/10-11/1944

8. 12.3" - 1/11-14/1979

9. 12.0" - 1/17-19/1943

10. 11.5" - 1/14-15/1943

Interesting how the big March events are either early or late in the month. Similar thing with Chicago.

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