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March 4th-6th Winter Storm Part 3


Powerball

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Chinook...I am no expert on the new radar...but can tell you that I live just southeast of Dayton on that radar...and your snapshot took place just as the precip switched from rain to heavy snow. I would say the yellow speckled returns are rain...the solid purple is snow! Don't know if that is what you were looking to get.

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New area high...

 

0720 PM SNOW 1 SSW LA GRANGE PARK 41.82N 87.88W

03/05/2013 M11.0 INCH COOK IL COCORAHS

STORM TOTAL SO FAR SINCE THE SNOW BEGAN AT 628 AM. 9.3

INCHES SINCE 1015 AM.

 

Well maybe that's the spot that can do it!

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Nice update, hope it is on track:

ISSUED AT 738 PM EST TUE MAR 5 2013  

 

UPDATE...  

RAIN HAS MADE THE TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL  

INDIANA A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. AS A RESULT...ADJUSTED  

TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AND WARNING AREA. EXTENDED WARNING FURTHER  

SOUTHWEST TO A LINE FROM WARREN COUNTY TO JENNINGS COUNTY. TOTAL  

SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ARE NOW  

EXPECTED...5 TO 7 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST  

AREA...AND 7 TO 9 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. CURRENT RADAR  

MOSAIC IS REPRESENTATIVE OF INCREASED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT  

925 MB OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WHICH  

WAS PART OF REASONING FOR THE INCREASE IN AREA OF WARNING.  

 

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Hmm...so I guess the nam and GFS were right all along.

Northern cut off line was too far south in the end. The runs about 36 hours ago were better.

 

Heck the snow made it all the way to Oshkosh today!

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I just measured 5" and still pouring here.

 

Congrats to all who are getting some good snows. Other than MI/ON, looking like a pretty good spread the wealth snow.

 

I was watching radar earlier and when I saw the heavier bands moving in, I threw the wife into the truck and headed out. We just drove around out in the country watching SN and some +SN. We pulled over and watched it come down for awhile. Pretty awesome. It was cool to be out in it rather than watching on radar and out the window.

 

I didn't even attempt to take pictures since it was in the dark countryside. Great photos being posted here.

 

Looks like I'll make at least 6", my mark for a great storm.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0247

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0745 PM CST TUE MAR 05 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...THE MIAMI AND WHITEWATER VALLEY AND W-CNTRL OHIO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 060145Z - 060545Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MIAMI AND WHITEWATER

VALLEY AND W-CNTRL OH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RATES OF 1 IN/HR

WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...REPORTS FROM THE NSSL PRECIPITATION IDENTIFICATION NEAR

THE GROUND -- PING -- PROJECT AND COORDINATION WITH THE WILMINGTON

OH WFO INDICATE THAT HEAVY WET SNOW IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL INDIANA. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION

WITH THE CORE OF A NW/SE-SHEARED ZONE OF WAA-RELATED PRECIPITATION

OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE

AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE TRACKS

SEWD/PARALLEL TO THE LONG AXIS OF THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ZONE.

LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES INTO THE AREA EMANATE FROM A SOURCE REGION OF

SUB-FREEZING WET BULB TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL YIELD A PHASE CHANGE

TO SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS

WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SNOW RATES THROUGH THE

EVENING...WITH AMDAR DATA SUGGESTING EFFICIENT SNOW AGGREGATION

OWNING TO NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYERS BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. RATES

REACHING 1 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE DAYTON

METRO AREA BETWEEN 0230Z AND 0600Z.

TO THE E/SE OF THE MCD AREA ACROSS CNTRL OH...A LOW-LEVEL WARM

SECTOR FEATURING ABOVE-FREEZING THERMAL PROFILES IS EVIDENT PER

REGIONAL SFC OBS AND THE 00Z ILN RAOB. PROVIDED THE ENEWD TRACK OF A

SFC LOW...AND STRONG EWD SURGE OF THE DEEPER COLD AIR TO THE S OF

THE LOW...AT LEAST PARTIAL SECLUSION OF THE WARM AIR CURLING AROUND

THE LOW MAY GREATLY DELAY A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR COLUMBUS AND ITS

VICINITY AND POINTS FARTHER E. RAIN MAY POTENTIALLY BE THE

PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/07Z -- AS AFFIRMED BY

THE CONSENSUS AMONG HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE.

post-4544-0-36946800-1362536589_thumb.gi

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too wet here until the last minute drying trends but a solid performance overall.

I think you could argue they were right on,but last nights 00Z runs with less QPF were the problem. For most metro spots this is going to be a 6-10 inch snowfall with some 12inch reports likely. I thought last nights runs made many think 4-7 as opposed to 6-12 inch calls prior. I think you will be surprised at reported totals outside the loop proper. Plus consider morning snowfall was impacted by warm temps or totals would have been higher.

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Nice report just over the border.

 

 

0830 PM HEAVY SNOW LAKE GENEVA 42.59N 88.43W 03/05/2013 M7.7 INCH WALWORTH WI BROADCAST MEDIA STORM TOTAL

 

 

Solid advisory snow north of the advisory area!

 

 

0820 PM SNOW 2 E HOLY HILL 43.24N 88.29W 03/05/2013 M5.4 INCH WASHINGTON WI CO-OP OBSERVER STORM TOTAL

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