The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread

[Skipper]

Everyone likes to spin but coming out and saying you were too deterministic in a tricky situation and made a mistake is fine. A few people will b tricked into thinking your forecast verified if it did in their backyard but over time the game gets figured out. He is known pretty far and wide for being a snow weenie to the 100th degree.

Right.

I don't have any criticisms for any of the mets who got this wrong. For some aspects of this bust, hindsight certainly looks better sure, but this storm looked a lot like the NAM as it was arriving.

My problem with Berk is that he made over 10 tweets and multiple Facebook posts during the "storm" and not once did he change his outlook. He just hoped the changeover would verify his totals which didn't happen.

I just don't see what's so hard about saying "I missed this on" and moving on.

[clskinsfan]

I guess everybody has a letdown feeling with this storm. Somebody will say how can you be let down with an 11.5 inch snow? Well, it goes to two things which for me ended up being the same thing. What I was hoping for was an all day mod-heavy snow. I never wanted 20 inches or even a foot. I was hoping for about 6" that fell over about an 8 hour period. Then I hoped it melted the next day. I like to watch it snow. Well what I got was 9" by 7am (over performer btw) and then 2.5 more by about 9:30. So, I got to see snow for a couple daylight hours, and spend about an hour and a half plowing the driveway and shoveling the walks and deck.

The early part of the storm was great. Forecast of 3-5 turned into 9. The part I wanted, the all day long, was what fell apart. I knew as soon as the precip took on the ne-sw direction back here that it was over. We were too far from the low at that point. We only do really well back here with precip coming from the south, be it sw, se, or just s. Precip with a northerly component to its direction just won't work this far west and this close to the mountains. Feb 10, 10 is a perfect example of that. It's like the low wound itself up too quickly for the long duration event back this way.

Now I hope winter is over. It was a tough year, much tougher for some than for me. We can all look ahead to next year with hope. One fun part for me has been hanging around this forum and being able to share thoughts with so many outstanding people.

 

It wasnt a bad year for us. We hit climo after yesterday. I just feel awful for the rest of the group to the east. 2 years in a row of a pathetic winter. It cant be awful 3 years in a row. It just cant.

[mattie g]

Post mortem in northeastern Burke:

 

Just a hair under 4" of really, really wet snow.  We finally went to light rain sometime in the late afternoon, but we had miraculously been all snow (of varying intensity) throughout most of the day.  We got most of our accumulation with the WAA at night, and perhaps that dropped enough snow to cool the boundary layer just enough to keep the marginal stuff as snow.  Either way, except under the heaviest bands, it was mostly white rain during the day - though that'd admittedly better than watching plain rain fall.  It's also amazing the damage the March sun can do to snow - especially on blacktop and concrete - when air temps are at or just above freezing.

 

Such a strange frickin' storm.  And while this was a marginal bust in my backyard, I feel awful for those who didn't see any snow, and for the region in general.  We truly, truly suck at winter.

[clskinsfan]

It ain't what it's cracked up to be, Bob. If you like a totally sloppy mess everywhere, you'd be thrilled. Spring snow is only fun while it's snowing. It sucks as soon as it stops. And if you didn't even see 80% of it fall and it cost you an hour or two of work just to be able to leave the house, it sucks even worse.

 

I kinda agree with you. If 11 inches of snow is not gonna get me out of work. The hell with it. My highest snowpack yesterday (if you can call it that) was 11.5 inches. I am now down to about 6. The roads are clear. So basically I invested at least 100 hours of my life tracking a worthless event.

 

Edit: And this is first time in my life I had a snow over 6 inches and did not have to shovel it. The tire tracks in my driveway exposed enough concrete to melt the majority of the snow off of it. I guess thats a bonus.

[WinterWxLuvr]

It wasnt a bad year for us. We hit climo after yesterday. I just feel awful for the rest of the group to the east. 2 years in a row of a pathetic winter. It cant be awful 3 years in a row. It just cant.

 

That's about 99% of the reason I felt let down yesterday.  March snows are tough to get super excited about because of the temps/sun.  No matter how good it is, it's going to be gone in a flash.  MN Transplant was talking about how it sucked to hear dripping during a snow storm.  That's a reason by March, I don't care nearly as much.  I got excited this time because I thought it would be region wide heavy snow event.  Falling snow.  Folks who had not seen much snow.  I woke at 4 am yesterday and the first thing I did was check DC obs.  Before I even looked out the window.  I so wanted them to get a good snow.  And then they didn't.  You combine that with the fact that I saw about 10% fall of what actually fell here, and there's my reasons that yesterday just wasn't that much of a thrill.  People here know that they have seen me write many times that I'm not in love with big snows.  I'd gladly trade them for multiple snows that snow all day.

[Bob Chill]

That's about 99% of the reason I felt let down yesterday.  March snows are tough to get super excited about because of the temps/sun.  No matter how good it is, it's going to be gone in a flash.  MN Transplant was talking about how it sucked to hear dripping during a snow storm.  That's a reason by March, I don't care nearly as much.  I got excited this time because I thought it would be region wide heavy snow event.  Falling snow.  Folks who had not seen much snow.  I woke at 4 am yesterday and the first thing I did was check DC obs.  Before I even looked out the window.  I so wanted them to get a good snow.  And then they didn't.  You combine that with the fact that I saw about 10% fall of what actually fell here, and there's my reasons that yesterday just wasn't that much of a thrill.  People here know that they have seen me write many times that I'm not in love with big snows.  I'd gladly trade them for multiple snows that snow all day.

 

If we weren't in the middle of an epic snow drought I wouldn't have cared nearly as much. I saw this as a last hope streakbreaker. Thought it was a lock. That's been my focus for months. Break the damn streak already. It's becoming embarrassing. 

 

The fact is that I haven't used a snow shovel since Jan 2011 and my kids have only used the sleds to scrape off an inch of snow on the local hill. Within an hour it was sledding on more grass than snow. Very sad. 

 

My kids were way bummed yesterday. I kept telling them to hold on until we had at least a good covering. Gave up around 11 and said have at it. They came back soaked and muddy in an hour. If I could have just gotten 4" of glop it would have made the kids' day. 

 

I don't think anyone can deny that the dc-baltimore corridor is an absolute snow embarrassment to every other subforum on this board. We are the expected division bottom dwellers. No playoffs, no upsets, no winning seasons, just epic fail. Maybe we get first draft pick next season and sing up El Nino for a multi year contract. 

[Bodhi Cove]

This may belong in the banter thread, if so, please move it there. However, this storm bust has put a spotlight (once again) on something I began noticing 13 years ago when I moved from Columbia to Middle River. And, from what I've been reading on these boards for the last few years, those who live on the Eastern side of Harford, Balt, AA, and Calvert County experience the same frustration.

 

The disparate forecasts Mt. Holly and Sterling release to the public needs to be addressed.

 

I posted the comment below yesterday a little before noon:

 

As the crow flies, the distance between Middle River (Western Shore) and Still Pond (Eastern Shore) is 15 miles.   Baltimore Inner Harbor to the Eastern Shore is 25 miles.

Yet take a look at the forecasts below from Sterling and Mt. Holly.

 

Middle River

• This Afternoon Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy fog. High near 35. Windy, with a north wind around 26 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
• 
  
• Tonight Snow, mainly before 3am. Areas of fog before 9pm. Low around 33. Breezy, with a north wind 17 to 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
• 
  

Still Pond

• This Afternoon Rain before 4pm, then snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 41. Windy, with a north wind around 26 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
• 
  
• Tonight Snow, mainly before 4am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 32. Breezy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
• 
  

 

The differences noted above occur frequently, not just in the winter, but throughout the entire year. The past 2 years, during the Summer months, bay-side areas often reached Excessive Heat Warning criteria, while the other side of the County, further inland, did not.

 

Sterling already has Baltimore County split into Northern and Southern portions. In my very humble opinion, maybe they should split counties on the Bay into Western and Eastern portions. 

 

Or, since Mt. Holly apparently has a better understanding of Bay-side dynamics thanks to the Delaware Bay, maybe they should be forecasting for the areas along both sides of the Chesapeake Bay; West to the I-95 corridor and South to... Annapolis/Bay Bridge area?  *shrugs, I dunno, just tossing it out there*

 

 

As far as this storm bust, and the fallout from it, I believe the general public would have preferred the usual quotes of "depending on where you are, you may see just rain, a melting mix of snow/rain, or high accumulations of very wet snow."  Instead, it became a runaway train of 5-11 inch or higher accumulation maps splashed onto TV screens, the LWX automated map, the individual area text forecasts and internet sites. 

 

As far as those who are defending the forecasts, the LWX and TV Mets by saying the general public should understand how complicated the models were; think if it this way.  If someone comments that you have an anomalous looking mole on your back, who are you going to go to first,  to have it checked it out?  Likely a GP, maybe during a yearly physical.  In turn, he/she will send you to a Dermatologist much more familiar with skin cancer than he or she is. That Dermatologist is relied upon by the general public to possess the knowledge and tools needed, to determine if the mole is benign or needs to be biopsied for possible malignancy.  (That example takes into account the patient is not a fearful hypochondriac, addicted to self diagnosing at WebMD.com.)

 

Expecting the general public to understand Meteorology by some sort of osmosis, is like expecting me to speak Spanish fluently tomorrow, because I'm having dinner at Chevys Mexican restaurant tonight.

 

And yes, I'm aware MANY of you already understand why the public is angry about the bust , but a few people don't seem to get it.

 

Muchas Gracias    And my apologies for blathering on about something that isn't likely to change any time soon.

[WinterWxLuvr]

If we weren't in the middle of an epic snow drought I wouldn't have cared nearly as much. I saw this as a last hope streakbreaker. Thought it was a lock. That's been my focus for months. Break the damn streak already. It's becoming embarrassing. 

 

The fact is that I haven't used a snow shovel since Jan 2011 and my kids have only used the sleds to scrape off an inch of snow on the local hill. Within an hour it was sledding on more grass than snow. Very sad. 

 

My kids were way bummed yesterday. I kept telling them to hold on until we had at least a good covering. Gave up around 11 and said have at it. They came back soaked and muddy in an hour. If I could have just gotten 4" of glop it would have made the kids' day. 

 

I don't think anyone can deny that the dc-baltimore corridor is an absolute snow embarrassment to every other subforum on this board. We are the expected division bottom dwellers. No playoffs, no upsets, no winning seasons, just epic fail. Maybe we get first draft pick next season and sing up El Nino for a multi year contract. 

 

That's another reason I felt so bad yesterday.  If I could have given all the snow to you guys down there, I would have gladly done so.  But we will be back here next year doing the same thing.  And we might just have reason to smile from Dec to Feb.  You never know.

[Bob Chill]

That's another reason I felt so bad yesterday.  If I could have given all the snow to you guys down there, I would have gladly done so.  But we will be back here next year doing the same thing.  And we might just have reason to smile from Dec to Feb.  You never know.

 

Ji and me are going to track to post frontal southern slider and then the vigorous clipper after that. Next week's gonna be rockin!

[Huffwx]

I think one problem with how it evolved was that initial WAA band that was supposed to really crank, ran way out ahead of the upper level system and lost its support.  This really killed its ability to become a super band, instead it was just 8 hours of light to moderate precip.  I don't think the models, the globals anyways, did badly with the second half of the storm.  They were all hinting the storm would go through that messy transition and that banding would become more spotty the second half of the storm.  Problem was we should have all had 4-8" of snow by then and with a colder boundary due to dynamic cooling we could have then picked up a few more inches in bands and it might have worked out.  That initial band running out ahead and weakening really pulled the rug out of this system.  It just never got its act together. 

 

 

I'm not even sure what it's called-- but in LYH and ROA it was 50 degrees at 5 PM when the WAA started (even as sleet in ROA) and was snowing by 9PM- Tons of cold air wrapped in tightly as that second low popped over central NC. I think that killed the WAA in general.

 

** edit to say** this was HOURS ahead of schedule. Changeover these places was progged for 4 am or so-- most data. Maybe 1-2 am on the Euro.

[psuhoffman]

I was led astray by the psuhoffman storm. That was another marginal event where I scored bigtime -- 14 inches. I even made it through the lull with sleet and no rain. Were the temps very different in this one?

The difference was in that storm the H5 low was wound up much more tightly, and it passed a lot closer, basically over central VA, allowing us to get a nice 6 hour period of consistently heavy snow.  The WAA stuff on the front end we got lucky in that it came in way ahead of schedule and before the coastal got going and destroyed the thermal profile.  We were a bit lucky in that the first part ran out ahead into the cold air, then the coastal took forever to get going, and we mostly had a lull during the time when we would have had temp issues, then the back end blew up due to the bombing low and the H5 taking a perfect track.  This time the low was not amping it was actually occluding and going through a redevelopment period, so no super bands and disorganized mess.  That is not good when you need dynamic cooling to overcome crap surface temps.  We just needed a better organized stronger storm, this crapped out on us. 

[Skipper]

White Lying

[midatlanticweather]

Flurries this morning are related to this same storm. LOL!

[RevWarReenactor]

Flurries this morning are related to this same storm. LOL!

 

 

Flurries here too. Fail storm doesn't want to get out of here. It will linger and rub it in our face. You couldn't script a winter worse than this.

[North Balti Zen]

Moved post to the "Bust" thread.

[North Balti Zen]

I know DT tried to re-claim victory for his Euro after its crushing defeat, but isn't the on-going snows up in SNE proof that the GFS-led take on the evolution of this storm (that it would make the turn and impact SNE) was dead on and the Euro got overall schooled with regard the general track of  this system?

[WxUSAF]

I know DT tried to re-claim victory for his Euro after its crushing defeat, but isn't the on-going snows up in SNE proof that the GFS-led take on the evolution of this storm (that it would make the turn and impact SNE) was dead on and the Euro got overall schooled with regard the general track of  this system?

Of course, but he won't admit it.  He seemed to make the same comment that someone else did on here yesterday...the Euro had it better at Day 5 than the GFS did, so the Euro was better.  Nevermind the Days 1-4 when the GFS was better.  

[Bob Chill]

After this winter, anyone with half a brain and a scrap of knowledge of weather models would clearly see the gfs is an excellent model. Maybe the euro scores a little better but its pretty obvious that many believe that the euro has a PhD and the gfs has a GED. Pretty much analytical ignorance imo.

It's ok though. Euro huggers will keep busting and spinning and eventually people will get sick of them.

[stormtracker]

After this winter, anyone with half a brain and a scrap of knowledge of weather models would clearly see the gfs is an excellent model. Maybe the euro scores a little better but its pretty obvious that many believe that the euro has a PhD and the gfs has a GED. Pretty much analytical ignorance imo.

It's ok though. Euro huggers will keep busting and spinning and eventually people will get sick of them.

GFS deserves props.  We love to **** on it, but it was the first one to sniff out the turn up the coast.  Everybody thought it was crazy.  Then the Euro said me too.   

[mattie g]

GFS deserves props.  We love to **** on it, but it was the first one to sniff out the turn up the coast.  Everybody thought it was crazy.  Then the Euro said me too.   

 

And now there's a firehose Atlantic fetch streaming down the Mass Pike and I-84.

 

[Huffwx]

After this winter, anyone with half a brain and a scrap of knowledge of weather models would clearly see the gfs is an excellent model. Maybe the euro scores a little better but its pretty obvious that many believe that the euro has a PhD and the gfs has a GED. Pretty much analytical ignorance imo.

It's ok though. Euro huggers will keep busting and spinning and eventually people will get sick of them.

 

I'd like confirmation that despite the EC being "ranked" higher-- there is not statistically significant difference between the two.

[dtk]

GFS deserves props.  We love to **** on it, but it was the first one to sniff out the turn up the coast.  Everybody thought it was crazy.  Then the Euro said me too.   

It's just so odd and I have no explaination for it...but we looked at a series of forecasts valid at a particular time.  The ECMWF deterministic forecast had a really good idea like 8 days in advance (much like sandy), but then started to leak too far south (in the 4-6 day lead time), where the GFS then tended to have equal or superior forecasts.  Then, closer in, it was more of a crap shoot (at the synoptics were basically sorted out) and details became more important.

[MN Transplant]

It's just so odd and I have no explaination for it...but we looked at a series of forecasts valid at a particular time.  The ECMWF deterministic forecast had a really good idea like 8 days in advance (much like sandy), but then started to leak too far south (in the 4-6 day lead time), where the GFS then tended to have equal or superior forecasts.  Then, closer in, it was more of a crap shoot (at the synoptics were basically sorted out) and details became more important.

 

We always seem to see the graphs for the 500mb height verification.  What other verification stats are analyzed for the models?   

[isohume]

We always seem to see the graphs for the 500mb height verification.  What other verification stats are analyzed for the models?   

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39620-if-people-hate-the-nam/?p=2203368

[dtk]

I'd like confirmation that despite the EC being "ranked" higher-- there is not statistically significant difference between the two.

The thing is the only way we can really attribute statistical significance is over a large sample.  Hemispheric and regional verification over a month, for example, shows the EC is better than the GFS, and in the mean the difference is significant at a 95% confidence probably out to 5 days or so.  This does not automatically translate to a case-by-case or regional basis, however.  It is not such a superior model that it is simply always going to be better.  In fact, the GFS had better TC track forecasts in the Atlantic in 2012 (despite one very high profile case dragging the GFS skill down a bit).

[dtk]

We always seem to see the graphs for the 500mb height verification.  What other verification stats are analyzed for the models?   

Fits to observations (bias, RMSE), storm tracks, QPF verification, various other skill scores, etc.

[stormtracker]

It's just so odd and I have no explaination for it...but we looked at a series of forecasts valid at a particular time.  The ECMWF deterministic forecast had a really good idea like 8 days in advance (much like sandy), but then started to leak too far south (in the 4-6 day lead time), where the GFS then tended to have equal or superior forecasts.  Then, closer in, it was more of a crap shoot (at the synoptics were basically sorted out) and details became more important.

Yeah, but I'm sorta proud that our model beat the Euro on this one  

[stormtracker]

And now there's a firehose Atlantic fetch streaming down the Mass Pike and I-84.

 

Remember when we were the jackpot and the block was supposed to screw them?

All you can do is lol

[isohume]

The thing is the only way we can really attribute statistical significance is over a large sample.  Hemispheric and regional verification over a month, for example, shows the EC is better than the GFS, and in the mean the difference is significant at a 95% confidence probably out to 5 days or so.  This does not automatically translate to a case-by-case or regional basis, however.  It is not such a superior model that it is simply always going to be better.  In fact, the GFS had better TC track forecasts in the Atlantic in 2012 (despite one very high profile case dragging the GFS skill down a bit).

 

I agree fully. It is always ebb and flow btw the models from a operational fcsting standpoint. Each pattern and scale are always weighed differently wrt model guidance.   

[MN Transplant]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39620-if-people-hate-the-nam/?p=2203368

 

 

Fits to observations (bias, RMSE), storm tracks, QPF verification, various other skill scores, etc.

 

Thanks.