The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread

[WinterWxLuvr]

If we weren't in the middle of an epic snow drought I wouldn't have cared nearly as much. I saw this as a last hope streakbreaker. Thought it was a lock. That's been my focus for months. Break the damn streak already. It's becoming embarrassing. 

 

The fact is that I haven't used a snow shovel since Jan 2011 and my kids have only used the sleds to scrape off an inch of snow on the local hill. Within an hour it was sledding on more grass than snow. Very sad. 

 

My kids were way bummed yesterday. I kept telling them to hold on until we had at least a good covering. Gave up around 11 and said have at it. They came back soaked and muddy in an hour. If I could have just gotten 4" of glop it would have made the kids' day. 

 

I don't think anyone can deny that the dc-baltimore corridor is an absolute snow embarrassment to every other subforum on this board. We are the expected division bottom dwellers. No playoffs, no upsets, no winning seasons, just epic fail. Maybe we get first draft pick next season and sing up El Nino for a multi year contract. 

 

That's another reason I felt so bad yesterday.  If I could have given all the snow to you guys down there, I would have gladly done so.  But we will be back here next year doing the same thing.  And we might just have reason to smile from Dec to Feb.  You never know.

[Bob Chill]

That's another reason I felt so bad yesterday.  If I could have given all the snow to you guys down there, I would have gladly done so.  But we will be back here next year doing the same thing.  And we might just have reason to smile from Dec to Feb.  You never know.

 

Ji and me are going to track to post frontal southern slider and then the vigorous clipper after that. Next week's gonna be rockin!

[Huffwx]

I think one problem with how it evolved was that initial WAA band that was supposed to really crank, ran way out ahead of the upper level system and lost its support.  This really killed its ability to become a super band, instead it was just 8 hours of light to moderate precip.  I don't think the models, the globals anyways, did badly with the second half of the storm.  They were all hinting the storm would go through that messy transition and that banding would become more spotty the second half of the storm.  Problem was we should have all had 4-8" of snow by then and with a colder boundary due to dynamic cooling we could have then picked up a few more inches in bands and it might have worked out.  That initial band running out ahead and weakening really pulled the rug out of this system.  It just never got its act together. 

 

 

I'm not even sure what it's called-- but in LYH and ROA it was 50 degrees at 5 PM when the WAA started (even as sleet in ROA) and was snowing by 9PM- Tons of cold air wrapped in tightly as that second low popped over central NC. I think that killed the WAA in general.

 

** edit to say** this was HOURS ahead of schedule. Changeover these places was progged for 4 am or so-- most data. Maybe 1-2 am on the Euro.

[psuhoffman]

I was led astray by the psuhoffman storm. That was another marginal event where I scored bigtime -- 14 inches. I even made it through the lull with sleet and no rain. Were the temps very different in this one?

The difference was in that storm the H5 low was wound up much more tightly, and it passed a lot closer, basically over central VA, allowing us to get a nice 6 hour period of consistently heavy snow.  The WAA stuff on the front end we got lucky in that it came in way ahead of schedule and before the coastal got going and destroyed the thermal profile.  We were a bit lucky in that the first part ran out ahead into the cold air, then the coastal took forever to get going, and we mostly had a lull during the time when we would have had temp issues, then the back end blew up due to the bombing low and the H5 taking a perfect track.  This time the low was not amping it was actually occluding and going through a redevelopment period, so no super bands and disorganized mess.  That is not good when you need dynamic cooling to overcome crap surface temps.  We just needed a better organized stronger storm, this crapped out on us. 

[Skipper]

White Lying

[midatlanticweather]

Flurries this morning are related to this same storm. LOL!

[RevWarReenactor]

Flurries this morning are related to this same storm. LOL!

 

 

Flurries here too. Fail storm doesn't want to get out of here. It will linger and rub it in our face. You couldn't script a winter worse than this.

[North Balti Zen]

Moved post to the "Bust" thread.

[North Balti Zen]

I know DT tried to re-claim victory for his Euro after its crushing defeat, but isn't the on-going snows up in SNE proof that the GFS-led take on the evolution of this storm (that it would make the turn and impact SNE) was dead on and the Euro got overall schooled with regard the general track of  this system?

[WxUSAF]

I know DT tried to re-claim victory for his Euro after its crushing defeat, but isn't the on-going snows up in SNE proof that the GFS-led take on the evolution of this storm (that it would make the turn and impact SNE) was dead on and the Euro got overall schooled with regard the general track of  this system?

Of course, but he won't admit it.  He seemed to make the same comment that someone else did on here yesterday...the Euro had it better at Day 5 than the GFS did, so the Euro was better.  Nevermind the Days 1-4 when the GFS was better.  

[Bob Chill]

After this winter, anyone with half a brain and a scrap of knowledge of weather models would clearly see the gfs is an excellent model. Maybe the euro scores a little better but its pretty obvious that many believe that the euro has a PhD and the gfs has a GED. Pretty much analytical ignorance imo.

It's ok though. Euro huggers will keep busting and spinning and eventually people will get sick of them.

[stormtracker]

After this winter, anyone with half a brain and a scrap of knowledge of weather models would clearly see the gfs is an excellent model. Maybe the euro scores a little better but its pretty obvious that many believe that the euro has a PhD and the gfs has a GED. Pretty much analytical ignorance imo.

It's ok though. Euro huggers will keep busting and spinning and eventually people will get sick of them.

GFS deserves props.  We love to **** on it, but it was the first one to sniff out the turn up the coast.  Everybody thought it was crazy.  Then the Euro said me too.   

[mattie g]

GFS deserves props.  We love to **** on it, but it was the first one to sniff out the turn up the coast.  Everybody thought it was crazy.  Then the Euro said me too.   

 

And now there's a firehose Atlantic fetch streaming down the Mass Pike and I-84.

 

[Huffwx]

After this winter, anyone with half a brain and a scrap of knowledge of weather models would clearly see the gfs is an excellent model. Maybe the euro scores a little better but its pretty obvious that many believe that the euro has a PhD and the gfs has a GED. Pretty much analytical ignorance imo.

It's ok though. Euro huggers will keep busting and spinning and eventually people will get sick of them.

 

I'd like confirmation that despite the EC being "ranked" higher-- there is not statistically significant difference between the two.

[dtk]

GFS deserves props.  We love to **** on it, but it was the first one to sniff out the turn up the coast.  Everybody thought it was crazy.  Then the Euro said me too.   

It's just so odd and I have no explaination for it...but we looked at a series of forecasts valid at a particular time.  The ECMWF deterministic forecast had a really good idea like 8 days in advance (much like sandy), but then started to leak too far south (in the 4-6 day lead time), where the GFS then tended to have equal or superior forecasts.  Then, closer in, it was more of a crap shoot (at the synoptics were basically sorted out) and details became more important.

[MN Transplant]

It's just so odd and I have no explaination for it...but we looked at a series of forecasts valid at a particular time.  The ECMWF deterministic forecast had a really good idea like 8 days in advance (much like sandy), but then started to leak too far south (in the 4-6 day lead time), where the GFS then tended to have equal or superior forecasts.  Then, closer in, it was more of a crap shoot (at the synoptics were basically sorted out) and details became more important.

 

We always seem to see the graphs for the 500mb height verification.  What other verification stats are analyzed for the models?   

[isohume]

We always seem to see the graphs for the 500mb height verification.  What other verification stats are analyzed for the models?   

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39620-if-people-hate-the-nam/?p=2203368

[dtk]

I'd like confirmation that despite the EC being "ranked" higher-- there is not statistically significant difference between the two.

The thing is the only way we can really attribute statistical significance is over a large sample.  Hemispheric and regional verification over a month, for example, shows the EC is better than the GFS, and in the mean the difference is significant at a 95% confidence probably out to 5 days or so.  This does not automatically translate to a case-by-case or regional basis, however.  It is not such a superior model that it is simply always going to be better.  In fact, the GFS had better TC track forecasts in the Atlantic in 2012 (despite one very high profile case dragging the GFS skill down a bit).

[dtk]

We always seem to see the graphs for the 500mb height verification.  What other verification stats are analyzed for the models?   

Fits to observations (bias, RMSE), storm tracks, QPF verification, various other skill scores, etc.

[stormtracker]

It's just so odd and I have no explaination for it...but we looked at a series of forecasts valid at a particular time.  The ECMWF deterministic forecast had a really good idea like 8 days in advance (much like sandy), but then started to leak too far south (in the 4-6 day lead time), where the GFS then tended to have equal or superior forecasts.  Then, closer in, it was more of a crap shoot (at the synoptics were basically sorted out) and details became more important.

Yeah, but I'm sorta proud that our model beat the Euro on this one  

[stormtracker]

And now there's a firehose Atlantic fetch streaming down the Mass Pike and I-84.

 

Remember when we were the jackpot and the block was supposed to screw them?

All you can do is lol

[isohume]

The thing is the only way we can really attribute statistical significance is over a large sample.  Hemispheric and regional verification over a month, for example, shows the EC is better than the GFS, and in the mean the difference is significant at a 95% confidence probably out to 5 days or so.  This does not automatically translate to a case-by-case or regional basis, however.  It is not such a superior model that it is simply always going to be better.  In fact, the GFS had better TC track forecasts in the Atlantic in 2012 (despite one very high profile case dragging the GFS skill down a bit).

 

I agree fully. It is always ebb and flow btw the models from a operational fcsting standpoint. Each pattern and scale are always weighed differently wrt model guidance.   

[MN Transplant]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39620-if-people-hate-the-nam/?p=2203368

 

 

Fits to observations (bias, RMSE), storm tracks, QPF verification, various other skill scores, etc.

 

Thanks.

[MichaelScott]

The thing is the only way we can really attribute statistical significance is over a large sample.  Hemispheric and regional verification over a month, for example, shows the EC is better than the GFS, and in the mean the difference is significant at a 95% confidence probably out to 5 days or so.  This does not automatically translate to a case-by-case or regional basis, however.  It is not such a superior model that it is simply always going to be better.  In fact, the GFS had better TC track forecasts in the Atlantic in 2012 (despite one very high profile case dragging the GFS skill down a bit).

Also, one of the big problems in attaining a statistically significant sample is that these models are being updated on a regular basis so it becomes rather difficult to compare any two models directly over a large period of time. You could do a general comparison independent of the updates by just looking purely at which one gets it right more often, and that would yield the necessary sample. But that wouldn't be especially useful because of the aforementioned update cycle. My hunch is that given a large enough sample for two comparable versions of each model you'd find that the differences between the Euro and the GFS to be fairly small - i.e., within 10% of one another in terms of verification rates. Perhaps higher differences with individual maps, but overall I wouldn't expect a staggering difference. 

[mattie g]

Remember when we were the jackpot and the block was supposed to screw them?

All you can do is lol

 

Yup.  There wasn't supposed to be much of a chance the storm could work its way up against the block enough to give them a pasting.

 

Then ORH ate a can of refried beans, and the rest is history.

[dtk]

Thanks.

I believe that we are working on developing summary scorecards like the ECMWF has, such as this:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/changes/ifs_cycle_38r1/scorecard.html

 

But this gives an idea in terms of the volume of stuff we actually look at, just in terms of mean scores.  We also look at case by case type stuff as well (and do our best to reply to customer observations/complaints/needs/etc. to address specific issues).

[Bob Chill]

I agree fully. It is always ebb and flow btw the models from a operational fcsting standpoint. Each pattern and scale are always weighed differently wrt model guidance.

I think that what gets to me at times. I'm just a weenie but I watch this stuff all winter. Usually every run of the gfs/euro unless it's really boring or an obvious long duration stretch of aoa.

I see way to much "if the euro doesn't show it the gfs is wrong" and "it's the gfs, throw it out". It's like the new hip thing to say. And it's narrow minded as heck. Relying on a single model for 80%+ of all your forecasting at all ranges is fools gold. But you can always spin how it was right all along in the end and retain your viewership so I guess it doesn't matter whether you're right or wrong anymore. As long as you are a good salesman actual accurate forecasting skill can take a back seat.

[isohume]

I think that what gets to me at times. I'm just a weenie but I watch this stuff all winter. Usually every run of the gfs/euro unless it's really boring or an obvious long duration stretch of aoa.

I see way to much "if the euro doesn't show it the gfs is wrong" and "it's the gfs, throw it out". It's like the new hip thing to say. And it's narrow minded as heck. Relying on a single model for 80%+ of all your forecasting at all ranges is fools gold. But you can always spin how it was right all along in the end and retain your viewership so I guess it doesn't matter whether you're right or wrong anymore. As long as you are a good salesman actual accurate forecasting skill can take a back seat.

 

I see that on here all the time as well. Seems everyone wants to find the "right" model, when in fact, all models are wrong all the time to some degree. Model guidance is good to ascertain a general pattern evolution and to give a measure of confidence. However, they're not good in gaining a deterministic sensible wx fcst, which is painfully found out on many occasions.   

[mattie g]

I see that on here all the time as well. Seems everyone wants to find the "right" model, when in fact, all models are wrong all the time to some degree. Model guidance is good to ascertain a general pattern evolution and to give a measure of confidence. However, they're not good in gaining a deterministic sensible wx fcst, which is painfully found out on many occasions.   

 

Especially when they all reach a pretty good consensus as a storm's starting, only for the rug to be pulled out about 8 hours later.

 

[Ian]

16-20 for Boston

God has forsaken us