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The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread


Ji

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You know we all knew there was no real good cold air source for this storm, yet we all seemed to toss that aside in favor of dynamic cooling.  Perhaps it's because it's been soooo long, that we just really wanted this marginal airmass to work out for us.  Marginal can work for DC proper in heart of winter but not in March, that's the lesson learned for me.

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Seriously, what we needed was for this same track to occur in Jan or Feb with a colder antecedent airmass and a lower sun angle. I would have taken those chances. Let's not wait until March next year before finally getting a favorable track.

 

Yeah, just eyeballing the total QPF on the LWX radar shows IAD at 2.5" liquid.  That would be ~25 inches with normal SLR in Jan or early Feb!

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You know we all knew there was no real good cold air source for this storm, yet we all seemed to toss that aside in favor of dynamic cooling.  Perhaps it's because it's been soooo long, that we just really wanted this marginal airmass to work out for us.  Marginal can work for DC proper in heart of winter but not in March, that's the lesson learned for me.

It worked for areas around Richmond. :axe:

 

MDstorm

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Yeah, just eyeballing the total QPF on the LWX radar shows IAD at 2.5" liquid.  That would be ~25 inches with normal SLR in Jan or early Feb!

I would bet FDK didn't record .75 for the whole storm.  Most of that was wrapped up in 2-3" of snow that fell this morning.  Mostly drizzle/flurries since then.

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I'm moving my home office deep into my basement with no windows and I'm going to sleep there too. I don't want to see the sky for a month. I know cold turkey can be dangerous but I'm pretty tough and I really need to get off this stuff.

 

Too many examples of time dumped into nothing. Well, still a big storm.. but for many of us certainly not what we're looking for at this pt.  Matt is right we are ill.

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Euro was always halfway decent down here - practically every run for the past four days showed somewhere between 2-6" of snow for the metro (taken verbatim of course).

Then there was also that ridiculous 0z NAM run the other night.

That's true but your location was good for the different evolution of the system too. Euro was right for the wrong reason to some extent.

The areas along western va that did well all had help from orographics. They had it easy with the waa stuff. If synoptics weren't going to do it, orographics finished the job.

So their jackpot was safe too even though the storm evolved differently. Ric greatly benefitted from the cyclogenesis and dca-bwi got hosed.

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Seriously, what we needed was for this same track to occur in Jan or Feb with a colder antecedent airmass and a lower sun angle. I would have taken those chances. Let's not wait until March next year before finally getting a favorable track.

On that note, wasn't the generally west to east track of the storm, regardless of how it played out today, not that conducive for everything falling into place for the MA?

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As soon as I saw TWC sent crew to my location I should have gotten the hell out of there. Not sure how much it matters for I-95, but there is a pretty good NAO showing up in the LR...LOL, had to do it. 

 

Jim Cantore is the kiss of death..  go where Jim isn't.

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Yeah, just eyeballing the total QPF on the LWX radar shows IAD at 2.5" liquid. That would be ~25 inches with normal SLR in Jan or early Feb!

I would be shocked if iad got 2.5. That has to be an error from the fake band parked there most of the day. I could be wrong but I don't think anybody West of the bay cracked 2".

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I would be shocked if iad got 2.5. That has to be an error from the fake band parked there most of the day. I could be wrong but I don't think anybody West of the bay cracked 2".

 

I am close to IAD and I bet we got that much.  Most of it in the form of big heavy wet flakes that melted on impact with the slush on the ground.

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Jim Cantore is the kiss of death..  go where Jim isn't.

 

eh he always goes to the big name place. the big name places get jackpotted or hit by tornadoes less than bumblesuch america. no way he asked to go to dc near the mall in a march snowstorm lol.

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eh he always goes to the big name place. the big name places get jackpotted or hit by tornadoes less than bumblesuch america. no way he asked to go to dc near the mall in a march snowstorm lol.

Im sure he was pretty pissed he did not get sent to Front Royal, but with the big bucks he makes he has no choice but to go to the prime locations.

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