The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread

[NJ_Ken]

When is part 2?

 

December 2013

[Snowpocalypse]

I was at work all day so I couldn't check the board, so I dont have to read 80 pages could some tell me what the hell went wrong?

[real]

I think too many forgot about climo and fact it's March. Though we did get that early March storm in 2009, reading  Ian's story on Capital Weather shows only 3 March storms of at least 5 inches in the last 50 years in DC. Nearly all top March storms were a long, long time ago, when much of DC area was largely a farming community.  

 

Even if we had gotten under a few heavy bands today of 1 to 2 inches an hour,  and got down a few degrees cooler, much of the snow probably would have  melted from underneath in the urban heat island.  Even in Feb 2010, DC lost some snow on the night of Feb. 5 as well as during the initial wave of the Feb. 10 blizzard due to more melting than many had expected.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/30/AR2011013004449.html

[Terpeast]

He was talking about liquid equivalent. IAD did not pick up 2.5" of liquid today. 

Probably not, but my point was if this setup was in Jan or Feb, we'd be looking at big snows.

[mattskiva]

He was talking about liquid equivalent. IAD did not pick up 2.5" of liquid today. 

 

So was I.  We got a lot of liquid here.

[real]

To this day, I swear I was robbed of a good 5 to 6 inches of snow that was melting on contact -- even with a base on the ground -- on the evening of Feb. 5 2010. And I was in elevated Upper Northwest, not even in the warmer Downtown.  Few believe that, but from 8 to 10 p.m. on that night,  while snow was piling up like mad in the suburbs, seemed the city was still too warm.   Can only imagine what today would have been like.

[olafminesaw]

I received 4.5" in northern Chantilly

[Jebman]

I got about 3.5 inches, but we have some compaction. Snow falling off the tree in the front demolished the front yard snowpack.

 

Niiiiiiice CCB. This light snow is blinding. 

[blazeKing]

Had about 5.5" before the melt started...down to 4" now fredericksburg....If you had told me last night that RIC would get more than DCA with DCA having a WSW for 6-10" and RIC had a forecast of rain ..i would have :lmao:

[mdhokie]

Probably not, but my point was if this setup was in Jan or Feb, we'd be looking at big snows.

IAD got .93 and BWI got .73. Unless it was 10 degrees outside and we had > 10:1 ratios, thats 9" and 7". Not exactly HECS. Both the GFS and NAM were way off with QPF. I think the euro was pretty close, but I have no idea how it verified with the storm formation. 

 

Especially since those precip totals are over 15 hours. There was no "thump" with this storm.

[Jebman]

I'm sure the mountains got demolished proper.

 

Models said so and elevation FTW

[MDstorm]

as of 4:30

 

IAD: 3.3"

DCA: 0.1"

BWI: T

For DCA, this is likley a record high---- number of posts about this storm to amount of snow ratio. (almost infinity).

 

MDstorm

[WEATHER53]

We rolled up some giant balls pretty quick, nice snowman.

[Ger]

as of 4:30

IAD: 3.3"

DCA: 0.1"

BWI: T

BWI is going to pull a stunner when it reports less than DCA for the "event"

[EastCoast NPZ]

Sorry for you DC / BWI folks.  Last night I gave in to my inner weenie and allowed myself to think this was going to be an epic area-wide event. 

 

 

Tale of two storms: the first waa portion was great for us (10" imby), but the coastal was an outright disaster (4.5 hours of light snow netted negative 4 inches and lots of wind). 

[Jebman]

Correction: We have light to moderate steady RAIN, a wind driven RAIN.

 

I'm enjoying this comma head rainfall so much. It's sticking everywhere, on the roads, the sidewalk, the fence, the bushes, and even rain on top of snow! This is going to be epic.

[Bob Chill]

I'm done tracking all weather for the year. You can only stand so much fruitlessness before you realize that you may need medication or a stay in a ward to continue doing it.

[feloniousq]

Lessons learned for next winter: models are far from infallible, especially on the fringes of winter.  People here say it all the time, but models are tools, not answers. 

 

I think a lot of factors mixed in here.  Although there was plenty of poo-pooing about it here yesterday, I can't help but think if we'd been a few degrees cooler yesterday, the precip starts earlier and accumulates at least marginally faster overnight.  The ocean likely was also simply too warm, and with a marginal airmass when the coastal transfer happened, it was too much to overcome.

[RIC Airport]

Officially 1.5" at the Richmond airport on the east side of town.

[Amped]

BTW the nam now gives NYC 12"

[EastCoast NPZ]

I'm sure the mountains got demolished proper.

 

Models said so and elevation FTW

 

I got a second hand report of nearly 2 feet in southern Warren County at about 1400 - 1500 feet.

[pazzo83]

BTW the nam now gives NYC 12"

Trust me we aren't expecting much.

[RIC Airport]

Officially 1.5" at the Richmond airport on the east side of town.

Total storm QPF through 5pm....2.48"

[Bob Chill]

Lessons learned for next winter: models are far from infallible, especially on the fringes of winter. People here say it all the time, but models are tools, not answers.

I think a lot of factors mixed in here. Although there was plenty of poo-pooing about it here yesterday, I can't help but think if we'd been a few degrees cooler yesterday, the precip starts earlier and accumulates at least marginally faster overnight. The ocean likely was also simply too warm, and with a marginal airmass when the coastal transfer happened, it was too much to overcome.

East of the fall line was going to have problems but if the storm evolved as advertised even after snow was falling, it would have been much much different. Even DC supported snow till late in the game as it was.

[Ger]

To this day, I swear I was robbed of a good 5 to 6 inches of snow that was melting on contact -- even with a base on the ground -- on the evening of Feb. 5 2010. And I was in elevated Upper Northwest, not even in the warmer Downtown. Few believe that, but from 8 to 10 p.m. on that night, while snow was piling up like mad in the suburbs, seemed the city was still too warm. Can only imagine what today would have been like.

I was in Brookland at the time. I am not sure if your location is more urbanized than mine at the time (Brookland has the feel and density of a suburb). However, I vividly recall that evening and, in Brookland at least, the snow had begun sticking from around 7:00 on. We lost several hours it had been snowing before 7, but little/nothing after.

[EastCoast NPZ]

BTW the nam now gives NYC 12"

 

Lesson learned for me:  ignore any and all future NAM model outputs. 

[Ronnie]

It was fun while it lasted in Mt Airy MD.. from earlier this afternoon

 

 

 

[Ger]

Trust me we aren't expecting much.

I don't want to be a hater, but if NYC gets 12 inches....it won't be pretty.

[pazzo83]

I don't want to be a hater, but if NYC gets 12 inches....it won't be pretty.

It's in the mid 40s right now in midtown.  Like I said, I'd be surprised if we get more than 5".  That said, N & E of here could get a lot more.

[Jebman]

The problem was not a lack of qpf.

 

We have plenty of qpf, its just that some of it turned out to be liquid. Like right now, a wind driven freezing cold rain in 38 degree conds. What snow we have is going fast. Even the sidewalk snow has been demolished, my shovels denied.

 

You go outside you get a faceful of cold moderate rain driven by wind gusts over 40 mph.

 

 

In retrospect I am glad now that I was foolish enough to stay up all night. A lot of prudent folk went to bed at midnight, got a good sleep, and were bright eyed and refreshed for Round Two and the epic comma head snows this afternoon. I didn't. I was a fool and stayed up til 945am this morning. I got to see all of the snow all night as well as that EPIC snow band at 920am. I finally went to bed at 950am and snoozed til 4pm. 

 

I woke up to a well formed comma head and truly epic, epic rains. Too bad I missed seeing the comma head form on the radar.

 

Yeah, we got demolished alright.