Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Someone needs to get a screen cap of Cantore on bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potvn_sx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 As somebody said before....although the clown maps aren't taken seriously, almost all of them had BWI with little to no snow. Also, I believe it was the RPM that had NOTHING from DC to Balt along 95. I literally haven't seen a flake. This area sucks for snow... who wants to buy a condo in Snowshoe with me? $75,000 will get us a place to stay and actually see snow every winter and ski! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Someone needs to get a screen cap of Cantore on bare ground. DT already just reposted this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Feel bad for you guys....Although I got snow in Front Royal and I shouldn't complain, I wouldn't have made the road trip if I knew I was only getting 9-10" of snow, I was hoping for 20". The fact that the NAM can switch main QPF region 30 miles east under 24hrs from an event is just a joke. I knew after 00z runs last night I was gonna get screwed compared to some bullseye spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That was my earlier point. It wasn't totally a temp thing. I saw model after model after model spit out .4+ in multiple 6 hour periods. I saw 700 panels pasting us with big uvv's to go along with sim radars hammering me with rates. That is what busted and busted huge. I know exactly what type of storm the models told me I was going to get but that's not how it happened. And ric is still trying to figure out why they had severe thunder snow. DC had thundersnow with half mile vis. Something went seriously wrong. Agreed. This was FAR more than a temp bust or even just a QPF bust. The whole track and development of the storm was dramatically different from what models only 12 hours out were showing. I hope NWS/LWX/HPC (someone) does a post-mortem to figure out why. Wasn't any particular model either. GFS hinted at something like this at times. Maybe Euro did a bit. But all busted pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Back edge starting to retreat on the radar. Maybe we can end this drizzle fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This hurts especially bad because this morning Al Roker had my area in the 7-12 inch range for this storm. If you can't trust Al, who can you trust? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Agreed. This was FAR more than a temp bust or even just a QPF bust. The whole track and development of the storm was dramatically different from what models only 12 hours out were showing. I hope NWS/LWX/HPC (someone) does a post-mortem to figure out why. Wasn't any particular model either. GFS hinted at something like this at times. Maybe Euro did a bit. But all busted pretty hard. GGEM had been showing a snow to rain system all along. Many including me laughed at the Idea of a warmfront moving down from the NE. Next time I will take it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Feel bad for you guys....Although I got snow in Front Royal and I shouldn't complain, I wouldn't have made the road trip if I knew I was only getting 9-10" of snow, I was hoping for 20". The fact that the NAM can switch main QPF region 30 miles east under 24hrs from an event is just a joke. I knew after 00z runs last night I was gonna get screwed compared to some bullseye spots. You should have gone about 30-60mi to your south. That's where the 20+" totals are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 WSW cancelled for most of the area. No big surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Continues to snow light to moderately in Sparks, MD (21152). Been snowing all afternoon but all I see is more grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Agreed. This was FAR more than a temp bust or even just a QPF bust. The whole track and development of the storm was dramatically different from what models only 12 hours out were showing. I hope NWS/LWX/HPC (someone) does a post-mortem to figure out why. Wasn't any particular model either. GFS hinted at something like this at times. Maybe Euro did a bit. But all busted pretty hard. I agree, the evolution was also hindered by the transfer or energy which was late in the game. It really did hurt us that it was a miller B type system, as the close transfer didn't really allow any of the colder air (relatively speaking) to enter the picture. It shut the flow off, and then the energy robbing did occur through the h5 center down in Virginia. QPF/temps were all dependent on evolution, an alignment of upper air support and dynamics, and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 You should have gone about 30-60mi to your south. That's where the 20+" totals are. Yea Harrisonburg did great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Did any models show what went down in ric? I never really paid attention. I convinced that was the beginning of the end for us. Once the slp went ballistic down there, we never got rockin up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 DT already just reposted this no he posted this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The initial WAA precip not laying down the blanket of snow many models initially anticipated was also a large problem in addition to the synoptic evolution. Indeed that wasn't the major player because the features didn't align as predicted, but it certainly would have helped those that had snow all day, but no base to accumulate on thanks to wet ground. Overall, its a number of things. Synoptic evolution however dominates, and dynamics couldn't override a warmer BL. It's not like the BL initially was that warm, with areas quickly over to snow last night despite temperatures in the upper 30's to near 40. However, the spotty precip allowed the column to saturate enough and bring dews up to the point of no return, and after that, it was downhill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm struggling to understand why DT is crowing...he busted pretty hard as did everyone. He did get NE MD in only 2-4", which is better than what most other forecasts turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm struggling to understand why DT is crowing...he busted pretty hard as did everyone. He did get NE MD in only 2-4", which is better than what most other forecasts turned out. dt had dc in 8-12 before anyone else.. never saw his last map but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 UVVmet84, as a long-time lurker and reader I welcome you to the board and ask that you stick around. You certainly add to the collective knowledge of this place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm struggling to understand why DT is crowing...he busted pretty hard as did everyone. He did get NE MD in only 2-4", which is better than what most other forecasts turned out. His first call had 8-12 inches for NE MD. He is spinning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 light snain now west of BWI Don't you draw the queen of models, boy She'll beat you if she's able You know the queen of climo is always your best bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlowerLowerDE Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That red orange spot on the radar has been sitting on top of eastern Sussex county DE and Ocean City MD for over an hour. They must be getting drowned. Light rain here in western Sussex with plenty of wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The initial WAA precip not laying down the blanket of snow many models initially anticipated was also a large problem in addition to the synoptic evolution. Indeed that wasn't the major player because the features didn't align as predicted, but it certainly would have helped those that had snow all day, but no base to accumulate on thanks to wet ground. Overall, its a number of things. Synoptic evolution however dominates, and dynamics couldn't override a warmer BL. It's not like the BL initially was that warm, with areas quickly over to snow last night despite temperatures in the upper 30's to near 40. However, the spotty precip allowed the column to saturate enough and bring dews up to the point of no return, and after that, it was downhill. I had 1.5" at midnight last night from the initial WAA precip and was only at 2" at 7am this morning, and 4-5" by the end, despite moderate to heavy snow almost all day and temps 32-33. I think part of the problem was that the 1.5" which was not super wet last night turned into 2" of slush by this morning - must have mixed or something during the night. But the initial snow did not seem to help as the warmth won out in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Snowplow driver just did a loop down our street, probably confused by the fact his services are not needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 where can i find snow totals so far for the storm? particularly for VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/nexrad.php?type=AKQ-N0Q-1-200 killer long loop radar from akq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Snowplow driver just did a loop down our street, probably confused by the fact his services are not needed. I bet he still got paid for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I had 1.5" at midnight last night from the initial WAA precip and was only at 2" at 7am this morning, and 4-5" by the end, despite moderate to heavy snow almost all day and temps 32-33. I think part of the problem was that the 1.5" which was not super wet last night turned into 2" of slush by this morning - must have mixed or something during the night. But the initial snow did not seem to help as the warmth won out in the end. For your locale, I find it more of a problem that the lulls in precip warmed the column and raised the dews as stated above. Also, the banding wasn't present as some of the later models had shown, and the WAA precip was robbed as the primary subdued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Scorpio Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's interesting that Dulles is reporting 3.3 inches of snow. I'm just under 3 miles away, 100 feet higher up, and can walk outside of my nice warm garage and measure 5 inches of compacted snow. I wish I'd put out a snowboard and kept up with measurements...I guess elevation made that much of a difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 For your locale, I find it more of a problem that the lulls in precip warmed the column and raised the dews as stated above. Also, the banding wasn't present as some of the later models had shown, and the WAA precip was robbed as the primary subdued. Fair enough, and thanks for the explanation, since I am by no means any sort of expert. I wasn't complaining, just surprised it happened the way it did, especially with very high rates at times - I have seen 3"/hr rates and it seemed like that was what it should have been at times today, though you are right that there were significant lulls in between the heavier periods. Areas with elevation near here did really well - Purcellville, Bluemont, etc - less than 10mi away but more than twice as much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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