The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread

[MDstorm]

This hurts especially bad because this morning Al Roker had my area in the 7-12 inch range for this storm.  If you can't trust Al, who can you trust? 

 

MDstorm

[Amped]

Agreed.  This was FAR more than a temp bust or even just a QPF bust.  The whole track and development of the storm was dramatically different from what models only 12 hours out were showing.  I hope NWS/LWX/HPC (someone) does a post-mortem to figure out why.  Wasn't any particular model either.  GFS hinted at something like this at times.  Maybe Euro did a bit.  But all busted pretty hard. 

GGEM had been showing a snow to rain system all along. Many including me laughed at the Idea of a warmfront moving down from the NE. Next time I will take it seriously.

[pazzo83]

Feel bad for you guys....Although I got snow in Front Royal and I shouldn't complain, I wouldn't have made the road trip if I knew I was only getting 9-10" of snow, I was hoping for 20". The fact that the NAM can switch main QPF region 30 miles east under 24hrs from an event is just a joke. I knew after 00z runs last night I was gonna get screwed compared to some bullseye spots. 

You should have gone about 30-60mi to your south.  That's where the 20+" totals are.

[feloniousq]

WSW cancelled for most of the area.  No big surprise.

[Jeff B]

Continues to snow light to moderately in Sparks, MD (21152).  Been snowing all afternoon but all I see is more grass. 

[DDweatherman]

Agreed.  This was FAR more than a temp bust or even just a QPF bust.  The whole track and development of the storm was dramatically different from what models only 12 hours out were showing.  I hope NWS/LWX/HPC (someone) does a post-mortem to figure out why.  Wasn't any particular model either.  GFS hinted at something like this at times.  Maybe Euro did a bit.  But all busted pretty hard. 

I agree, the evolution was also hindered by the transfer or energy which was late in the game. It really did hurt us that it was a miller B type system, as the close transfer didn't really allow any of the colder air (relatively speaking) to enter the picture. It shut the flow off, and then the energy robbing did occur through the h5 center down in Virginia. QPF/temps were all dependent on evolution, an alignment of upper air support and dynamics, and more. 

[ravensrule]

You should have gone about 30-60mi to your south.  That's where the 20+" totals are.

Yea Harrisonburg did great.

[Bob Chill]

Did any models show what went down in ric? I never really paid attention. I convinced that was the beginning of the end for us. Once the slp went ballistic down there, we never got rockin up here.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

DT already just reposted this 

no he posted this one

 

[DDweatherman]

The initial WAA precip not laying down the blanket of snow many models initially anticipated was also a large problem in addition to the synoptic evolution. Indeed that wasn't the major player because the features didn't align as predicted, but it certainly would have helped those that had snow all day, but no base to accumulate on thanks to wet ground. 

 

Overall, its a number of things. Synoptic evolution however dominates, and dynamics couldn't override a warmer BL. It's not like the BL initially was that warm, with areas quickly over to snow last night despite temperatures in the upper 30's to near 40. However, the spotty precip allowed the column to saturate enough and bring dews up to the point of no return, and after that, it was downhill. 

[WxUSAF]

I'm struggling to understand why DT is crowing...he busted pretty hard as did everyone.  He did get NE MD in only 2-4", which is better than what most other forecasts turned out. 

[Ian]

I'm struggling to understand why DT is crowing...he busted pretty hard as did everyone.  He did get NE MD in only 2-4", which is better than what most other forecasts turned out. 

 

dt had dc in 8-12 before anyone else.. never saw his last map but still

[Jeff B]

UVVmet84, as a long-time lurker and reader I welcome you to the board and ask that you stick around.  You certainly add to the collective knowledge of this place.

[RevWarReenactor]

I'm struggling to understand why DT is crowing...he busted pretty hard as did everyone.  He did get NE MD in only 2-4", which is better than what most other forecasts turned out. 

 

His first call had 8-12 inches for NE MD. He is spinning.

[LongRanger]

light snain now west of BWI

Don't you draw the queen of models, boy

She'll beat you if she's able

You know the queen of climo is always your best bet

[SlowerLowerDE]

That red orange spot on the radar has been sitting on top of eastern Sussex county DE and Ocean City MD for over an hour.  They must be getting drowned.  Light rain here in western Sussex with plenty of wind.

[mattskiva]

The initial WAA precip not laying down the blanket of snow many models initially anticipated was also a large problem in addition to the synoptic evolution. Indeed that wasn't the major player because the features didn't align as predicted, but it certainly would have helped those that had snow all day, but no base to accumulate on thanks to wet ground. 

 

Overall, its a number of things. Synoptic evolution however dominates, and dynamics couldn't override a warmer BL. It's not like the BL initially was that warm, with areas quickly over to snow last night despite temperatures in the upper 30's to near 40. However, the spotty precip allowed the column to saturate enough and bring dews up to the point of no return, and after that, it was downhill. 

 

I had 1.5" at midnight last night from the initial WAA precip and was only at 2" at 7am this morning, and 4-5" by the end, despite moderate to heavy snow almost all day and temps 32-33.  I think part of the problem was that the 1.5" which was not super wet last night turned into 2" of slush by this morning - must have mixed or something during the night.  But the initial snow did not seem to help as the warmth won out in the end.

[RIC_WX]

Snowplow driver just did a loop down our street, probably confused by the fact his services are not needed.

[orangewx]

where can i find snow totals so far for the storm? particularly for VA.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/nexrad.php?type=AKQ-N0Q-1-200

 

 

 

killer long loop radar from akq

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mattskiva]

Snowplow driver just did a loop down our street, probably confused by the fact his services are not needed.

 

I bet he still got paid for it

[DDweatherman]

I had 1.5" at midnight last night from the initial WAA precip and was only at 2" at 7am this morning, and 4-5" by the end, despite moderate to heavy snow almost all day and temps 32-33.  I think part of the problem was that the 1.5" which was not super wet last night turned into 2" of slush by this morning - must have mixed or something during the night.  But the initial snow did not seem to help as the warmth won out in the end.

For your locale, I find it more of a problem that the lulls in precip warmed the column and raised the dews as stated above. Also, the banding wasn't present as some of the later models had shown, and the WAA precip was robbed as the primary subdued. 

[Hank Scorpio]

It's interesting that Dulles is reporting 3.3 inches of snow. I'm just under 3 miles away, 100 feet higher up, and can walk outside of my nice warm garage and measure 5 inches of compacted snow. I wish I'd put out a snowboard and kept up with measurements...

I guess elevation made that much of a difference?

[mattskiva]

For your locale, I find it more of a problem that the lulls in precip warmed the column and raised the dews as stated above. Also, the banding wasn't present as some of the later models had shown, and the WAA precip was robbed as the primary subdued. 

 

Fair enough, and thanks for the explanation, since I am by no means any sort of expert.  I wasn't complaining, just surprised it happened the way it did, especially with very high rates at times - I have seen 3"/hr rates and it seemed like that was what it should have been at times today, though you are right that there were significant lulls in between the heavier periods.

 

Areas with elevation near here did really well - Purcellville, Bluemont, etc - less than 10mi away but more than twice as much snow.

[PhineasC]

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/nexrad.php?type=AKQ-N0Q-1-200

 

 

 

killer long loop radar from akq

Yeah, pretty sure what that shows was supposed to happen over DC and Baltimore according to the models last night.

[mattskiva]

It's interesting that Dulles is reporting 3.3 inches of snow. I'm just under 3 miles away, 100 feet higher up, and can walk outside of my nice warm garage and measure 5 inches of compacted snow. I wish I'd put out a snowboard and kept up with measurements...

I guess elevation made that much of a difference?

 

I don't think it was elevation but rather the location of the heavier bursts of snow.  I am also at 5" compacted and I am only 255ft ASL.  Another guy in Gainesville which is about 5mi from here was reporting 8".

[Ian]

Mod rain. AWESOME.

[Bob Chill]

For your locale, I find it more of a problem that the lulls in precip warmed the column and raised the dews as stated above. Also, the banding wasn't present as some of the later models had shown, and the WAA precip was robbed as the primary subdued.

How did every model miss this while we were already receiving waa snow? That's just plain odd. Overwhelming guidance was saying to expect over .5 liquid by 7-9am. That's why I was really surprised when I woke up. I had a sinking feeling then but still refused to believe a complete bust was on tap.

[WxMan1]

This is more like the "March 5-7 White Lion Obs/WISHCASTING Thread" for those of us east of I-95!

Anyway, not sure if it was mentioned, but did anyone give any attention to those above normal water temps off the coast? Neither did I. Any kind of easterly component pretty much sealed the BL fate for those of us under 250'.

[PhineasC]

Mod rain. AWESOME.

What happened to crashing temps as the storm bombed? If anything, temps went up all day.