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The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread


Ji

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the low seems to be consolidating along the VA Capes and it is sending the bands, as a result, into Richmond/SE VA EDIT: like a figure skater going faster as he/she brings his/her arms inward

I don't think that heavy stuff in DE makes it to us (BWI)

Looking at sat pics and water vapor, I think that u.l trough near the Great Lakes that was originally thought to phase with the system, has shoved it S/SE and helped to screw us (or at least BWI)

but I guess it doesn't really matter why at this point, does it?

I just saw this but Nina FTW ... again!

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Location: Capitol Hill 2:01pm

Observation: pavement and concrete surfaces are completely wet and becoming still wetter; puddling is covering most surfaces and has resulted in numerous puddles; snow accumulation is present in the crevice on a car just above wiper blades and adjacent the hood at the bottom of the front window; visibility is maximum/unfettered/as far as the eye can see; -RASN of which approx. 90% is rain and 10% is "snow"; temperature is above-freezing and rising

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Remember most of the clown maps showed a sharp cutoff of snow totals to E and NE of DC?  No reason to ever take the clown maps seriously, but that in itself maybe should have been a red flag that I could have paid more attention to.

yes, but later runs had snow for us and those runs with clown maps showing no snow had substantially more qpf, which hasn't fallen either

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Remember most of the clown maps showed a sharp cutoff of snow totals to E and NE of DC?  No reason to ever take the clown maps seriously, but that in itself maybe should have been a red flag that I could have paid more attention to.

 

But it's more than that imo. Yes, there was going to be sharp cutoff but places west did terrible too. I thinks it's more of a huge bust calculating intensification and dynamics. It simply did not go as planned. 

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Did the northern stream have anything to do with this? Did the GL Low act as kicker, shunting the system further south than expected??

There must be a meteorological explanation for why this happened. This outcome is just too divergent from what was forecasted by any of the Big-3

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the low seems to be consolidating along the VA Capes and it is sending the bands, as a result, into Richmond/SE VA EDIT: like a figure skater going faster as he/she brings his/her arms inward

I don't think that heavy stuff in DE makes it to us (BWI)

Looking at sat pics and water vapor, I think that u.l trough near the Great Lakes that was originally thought to phase with the system, has shoved it S/SE and helped to screw us (or at least BWI)

but I guess it doesn't really matter why at this point, does it?

Shame on you for letting models within 24 hours of an event raise your expectations.  From now on, its radar/sat/surface obs on the day of the event.    :bag:

 

MDstorm

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Just saying...

You're all talking past each other. It snowed 7" in Oakton, 6" in Vienna according to TerpEast. The storm did fine in places where the rates were intense+ some elevation. What BobChill's trying to say is that that scenario was supposed to have happened throughout the western suburbs, not just in an isolated pocket in NoVA. That's the model failure.

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