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The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread


Ji

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We have 11.5" here at the airport in Winchester...getting consistent 15-16" reports out of Front Royal..some parts of our stations' listening areas have up to 18".... Here is a great gallery of listener submitted pictures from up and down the Shenandoah Valley.

 

http://www.kiss983.com/cc-common/gallery/photos.html?album_id=345631

 

 

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Stephens City

 

2059_13625950602.jpg

Bentonville

 

2059_13625950071.jpg

Slanesville

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the underlying model for the SREF Is one of the worst weather models imaginable....SREFS arent very good

 

Something is just flat-out wrong with those SREF "plumes," and I never bother looking at them, personally. They're drastically overdone in almost every event I've followed in every part of the country, even when the NAM itself isn't. I suspect there must be something in the algorithm they use that either overestimates ratios or is too generous with precip type for marginal soundings.

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the low seems to be consolidating along the VA Capes and it is sending the bands, as a result, into Richmond/SE VA EDIT: like a figure skater going faster as he/she brings his/her arms inward

I don't think that heavy stuff in DE makes it to us (BWI)

Looking at sat pics and water vapor, I think that u.l trough near the Great Lakes that was originally thought to phase with the system, has shoved it S/SE and helped to screw us (or at least BWI)

but I guess it doesn't really matter why at this point, does it?

I just saw this but Nina FTW ... again!

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