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The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread


Ji

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Really?? We have like 4"

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1207 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

MDZ004-VAZ036>040-042-050-051-501-502-070115-

/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130307T0800Z/

FREDERICK MD-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-

ORANGE-CULPEPER-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...CHARLOTTESVILLE...

WASHINGTON...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...WARRENTON

1207 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST

THURSDAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 14 INCHES...UP TO 24 INCHES AT HIGHER

ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THEN TAPER OFF

DURING THE LATE EVENING. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE

AFTERNOON...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR

DURING THIS TIME.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POWER

OUTAGES. SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY

SNOW WILL MAKE DRIVING EXTREMELY DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW

ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN

EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...

FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

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Really?? We have like 4"* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THEN TAPER OFF  DURING THE LATE EVENING. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE  AFTERNOON...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR  DURING THIS TIME.

It may be snowing at 1 to 2 inches per hour, but if so it's compacting at .75 to 1.75 inches per hour

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Completely demoralizing.  Even after thundersnow and yellows moving in over DC on the radar, turns out to be nothing more than a snow shower. I know temperatures ended up being an issue, but curious if someone can explain another meterological reason why this entire thing just seems to have fallen apart for the city? After this latest let down post thundersnow, sort of thinking DC does not break 2 inch mark, even if temps drop a little more later.

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I am at my office in Glen Burnie and I hear one after another jets that have just taken off flying into the muffled sound of snow aloft while it rains down here.

arrrggghhhhh

What may help folks around your area is the fact that the low is gaining more latitude in comparison to what modeling had it doing. If you look at analyzed pressures, you'll notice that it is progressing more northward on the latest radar frames. Additionally, the flanking line on the SE side of the low which can be seen on the DOX radar moving and expanding w/ward is key. What this might mean? Well in addition to pulling the winds direction from E to the N/NE, expect that a CCB like deform area could be in place that one is usually accustomed too in typical noreaster situations. The positioning of the low tells me that NYC could do better than predicted, and that some models which had mdt/heavy precip in DC the same time as NYC could at a certain point be correct. 

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Completely demoralizing.  Even after thundersnow and yellows moving in over DC on the radar, turns out to be nothing more than a snow shower. I know temperatures ended up being an issue, but curious if someone can explain another meterological reason why this entire thing just seems to have fallen apart for the city? After this latest let down post thundersnow, sort of thinking DC does not break 2 inch mark, even if temps drop a little more later.

 

Not even remotely did it fall apart for just the city...

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Not even remotely did it fall apart for just the city...

 

March just seems made for busts. If I was a pro forecaster, would never want to stick my neck out again on a March snowfall forecast. Didn't Blizzard of 1993 also bust in part of DC when it changed over to rain/sleet?  March 2001 also had a severe underperformer. But guess that storm in early March in 2009? turned out o.k. But boy, this is a bad let down.

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