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The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread


Ji

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What changed?  I haven't been able to read through all the post, but what happen to my 10-14 inches??  In Frederick, we are not even close to 4-5.

This thing is not nearly as intense up here as forecasted. There is no mega-band or crazy rates. Radar has been sort of spotty at best for much of the time. Also, temps suck.

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This thing is not nearly as intense up here as forecasted. There is no mega-band or crazy rates. Radar has been sort of spotty at best for much of the time. Also, temps suck.

Last night all TV mets were upping snow amounts.  Following the forum, qpfs were "off the charts".  What has occurred to make this fizzle?  Track?

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if 12z GFS is correct, it's time to bail at BWI

total qpf is between .75 and 1" per this map

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p36&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_036_precip_p36.gif

of that amount, about .5" falls between 7AM and 1PM

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p06&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_006_precip_p06.gif

balance of qpf, around .3" or so, falls over next 6 hours

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p06&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_012_precip_p06.gif

 

in short, we're 1 and 1/2 hours from 1PM when the bulk of precip is supposed to have fallen and with temps as they are, the little bit that's left to fall won't do the trick

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the perfect dynamics are just off shore. This is what the GFS was forecasting which I thought could be convective feedback. Turns out it was right. Nevertheless, I think some of this will try to move inland toward DC/Balt metros over the next few hours, and the storm is nowhere close to being over. Once this moves in, low to mid end of totals should verify.

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if 12z GFS is correct, it's time to bail at BWI

total qpf is between .75 and 1" per this map

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p36&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_036_precip_p36.gif

of that amount, about .5" falls between 7AM and 1PM

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p06&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_006_precip_p06.gif

balance of qpf, around .3" or so, falls over next 6 hours

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p06&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_012_precip_p06.gif

 

in short, we're 1 and 1/2 hours from 1PM when the bulk of precip is supposed to have fallen and with temps as they are, the little bit that's left to fall won't do the trick

Is the RAP still showing 18 hours of banding? LOL

 

This storm just totally wimped out. 

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