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The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread


Ji

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the perfect dynamics are just off shore. This is what the GFS was forecasting which I thought could be convective feedback. Turns out it was right. Nevertheless, I think some of this will try to move inland toward DC/Balt metros over the next few hours, and the storm is nowhere close to being over. Once this moves in, low to mid end of totals should verify.

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if 12z GFS is correct, it's time to bail at BWI

total qpf is between .75 and 1" per this map

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p36&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_036_precip_p36.gif

of that amount, about .5" falls between 7AM and 1PM

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p06&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_006_precip_p06.gif

balance of qpf, around .3" or so, falls over next 6 hours

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p06&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_012_precip_p06.gif

 

in short, we're 1 and 1/2 hours from 1PM when the bulk of precip is supposed to have fallen and with temps as they are, the little bit that's left to fall won't do the trick

Is the RAP still showing 18 hours of banding? LOL

 

This storm just totally wimped out. 

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the perfect dynamics are just off shore. This is what the GFS was forecasting which I thought could be convective feedback. Turns out it was right. Nevertheless, I think some of this will try to move inland toward DC/Balt metros over the next few hours, and the storm is nowhere close to being over. Once this moves in, low to mid end of totals should verify.

There is no way in hell DC to Baltimore and points on either side are getting even 1/4 of the totals still being forecasted.

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Doubtful it's too much more than that, if you go by other obs from around us. Those of us in Fairfax County who had a few inches as of 4-5:00 haven't gotten much more than an inch or so since then. We had a real lull for a few hours before the bands started rotating in.

 

Reston has been under that band of mod snow for 2 hours...

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Skies just getting brighter and brighter! Stopped snowing about half hour ago. Temp has risen about 3-4 degrees in that time to almost 38. Visibilities have risen to at least a couple miles (3.2 miles officially at the Fort Belvoir strip, about 2 miles down the road). I swear, I will never attempt to kick Lucy's damn football again...

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