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The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread


Ji

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From the corner of Little River Tpk and Braddock Rd near Annandale:

Temp: 33

Snow amt: 1.5"

Current radar shows I'm in a dry slot. Street is wet. I'm just glad to see snow on the grass. We've got along way to even get 3". Notice on radar that the winds are shifting from the east now. A few flakes starting to fall. I'm ready for phase two of the storm. It better not disappoint!

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Radar (using the color table Ian sent me for GR Analyst) is still a bit messy. No massive bands except for enhanced ares of precip around Leesburg and another one near and SE of Manassas. There are some other enhanced patches scattered about but no huge deathband at least locally. 

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I think we should probably run with the original forecasts from before the big bump last night. Remember before the whole overnight stuff came into view yesterday (wrongly) we were expecting best during the day. As others have said we've probably just gone back to the original idea minus a little bit of wasted precip. 

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Light snow, maybe 0.7-0.8" or so on the ground.  Nothing on roads, driveways.  Temp 33.8F.  I didn't buy the 6-8" by this time the short range models were showing last night, but I did think I'd have broken the streak by this point...glad folks in VA have. 

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Really doesn't seem to be doing anything outside on U Street in DC. Perhaps some drizzle, but can't tell. Traffic is obviously light cause everything  is closed, allowing for an easy commute into town at above average speed. 

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Maybe a quarter inch in Crofton MD. It is snowing, but in clumps of very wet flakes. Indicative of surface temps probably 34-35. This will do nothing but make it look like winter outside until we get into the CCB banding and get better column cooling.

Now I know what it's like for the lower elevations in Washington and Oregon like Seattle or Portland when they get their snow showers at 35-36F. What I would give to be 2-3F colder, or about 1000 ft higher (same result).

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Sounds like those around Richmond are cashing in. Not sure if that means anything with regard to how it is supposed to unfold up in Balt. A few days ago, the modeling that had those in SE Va cashing in left us in Balt out of the good stuff. Don't know if that still is the case or not. 

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snow really coming down hard now

if this is like 2/10, I should stay all snow from here on out

RAP qpf still looks great

 

When any return of 20 dbz or higher rolls through here, it reminds me of the second blizzard out there.  The wind here is getting pretty gusty, so I'm thinking it gets really good later this morning.

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Sounds like those around Richmond are cashing in. Not sure if that means anything with regard to how it is supposed to unfold up in Balt. A few days ago, the modeling that had those in SE Va cashing in left us in Balt out of the good stuff. Don't know if that still is the case or not. 

 

The 6z data trended a bit farther East, so once this thing gets cranking in the next 6 hours might be better for you

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