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The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread


Ji

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I'm pretty sure the NAM printed out an obscene amount of QPF by 12z.....

yea I wish I could say everything is going according to schedule but your right.  NAM and GFS had DCA well over .5 qpf by 12z.  That burst of .6 in 6 hours was what I was counting on to cool the boundary layer and get a nice 3-5" of snow into DC.  From 12z on it was dicey as the banding was more hit or miss.  Not sure why people keep saying wait for the coastal to get going.  The heaviest precip was supposed to be from 1am to 9am with some additional heavy bands but more sporadic swinging through after that.  FOr some reason the precip is just not cranking like it was supposed too.  Most of the obs indicate light to moderate, that is not enough to overcome the warm surface temps.  I am way too tired to try to analyze what went wrong overnight, maybe one of the mets can post on that but this was definitely not what I had in mind. 

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This is what the NAM said should have fallen by 7am, the actual qpf has been nothing close.  I know the NAM is overdone but the GFS was not far off overnight and other high res models all were well over .5 qpf by 12z.  Curious to see what DCA actual QPF is at 7am, but I am guessing closer to .25


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yea I wish I could say everything is going according to schedule but your right.  NAM and GFS had DCA well over .5 qpf by 12z.  That burst of .6 in 6 hours was what I was counting on to cool the boundary layer and get a nice 3-5" of snow into DC.  From 12z on it was dicey as the banding was more hit or miss.  Not sure why people keep saying wait for the coastal to get going.  The heaviest precip was supposed to be from 1am to 9am with some additional heavy bands but more sporadic swinging through after that.  FOr some reason the precip is just not cranking like it was supposed too.  Most of the obs indicate light to moderate, that is not enough to overcome the warm surface temps.  I am way too tired to try to analyze what went wrong overnight, maybe one of the mets can post on that but this was definitely not what I had in mind. 

 

6z and hires models have come in indicating the main show will be later. This right now is just a part of the storm in transition. You can clearly see on radar where the shield is setting up. Remember, those same models had the deformation axis rotating up toward PA at this time too, and that is not hapenning

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I'm in hawaii (75 degrees and pcloudy) watching this thread go from almost unprecedented enthusiasm earlier to horrible pessimism in a matter of a couple of hours. Someone please reassure me that it is going to snow at least 6". And also someone tell me what is happening in Centreville. Thanks.

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